2023 Gold Cup

[Lostinleith]

Might be a mistake on Oddschecker but Ahoy Senor has opened 5/4 with PP but is 5/2 with Hills for Many Clouds Chase

An interesting difference of opinion. Conflated is 7/4 with Hills and 4s with PP.

[Lobos]

An interesting difference of opinion. Conflated is 7/4 with Hills and 4s with PP.

Indeed. Is Conflated even coming over ??

[Kevloaf]

Surprised so much love for LP off the back of that run. Yes it was a super performance and yes, he's likely to improve from it, but beating a bunch of handicappers like that is something frodon could do and essentially did do in the badger but not get near a gold cup (or Ryanair) now.

On the other hand, protektorat has just won the grade 1 Betfair chase after beating frodon 18l and hardly gets a mention. I understand the RSA win from LP last year is obviously a factor, but two days later protektorat was third in a gold cup. Both have run a similar number of times over 3m (3 for LP, 4 for protektorat), and have a surprisingly similar number of runs over fences (7 for LP, 10 for protektorat)

I don't think it matters because galopin wins if he gets around, but I'd have protektorat over LP at the moment.

Not a bad case relative to LHP - then seeing he's 12/1 makes me laugh and think none of them are good prices right now

[Kevloaf]

Neither. I would have Protektorat at 12s. That 3rd last year was a great run considering he blundered the last in a race where a stronger pace would have suited him more. He was also the youngest in the field last year so has more room for improvement than others.
I must be the very few not greatly impressed with L'Homme Presse on Saturday. I know he wasn't fully fit but just feel he was hanging on. I just haven't taken to him for some reason.
Oh, I would still risk APT ahead of them all if I wasn't already on!

Fair enough, I do kind of see what you're saying but then... I have no interest whatsoever in Protektorat, I'll be making a book and will leave him out, honestly.

L'Homme Presse has a potentially higher ceiling still for me, but in terms of making a case for him at the price I can't ..... I just wanted to say how much I liked him.

He's not a sexy type.... for context, another horse I adored was Barters Hill, and he ended up shite as well haha

[Carnage at Taunton]

Neither. I would have Protektorat at 12s. That 3rd last year was a great run considering he blundered the last in a race where a stronger pace would have suited him more. He was also the youngest in the field last year so has more room for improvement than others.
I must be the very few not greatly impressed with L'Homme Presse on Saturday. I know he wasn't fully fit but just feel he was hanging on. I just haven't taken to him for some reason.
Oh, I would still risk APT ahead of them all if I wasn't already on!

Completely agree with your comments re Protektorat, massive player for me and imo a tad underestimated by the bookies.
That was some round of jumping he put in at Haydock, and looks to have improved to me.
Not so sure re comments on LP though.
RSA winner that’s just produced a fair performance first time out, has to be a big player for me. Unfortunately bookies have not underestimated him , and I be am kicking myself a tad for not doing the double before Newcastle.
16 for the Gold Cup I would be more than happy.
I shall keep an eye on his price and any future doubles !!

[Kevloaf]

What's the trend and logic behind a horse not winning a Gold Cup at first attempt then doing it? It's pretty strong and fair isn't it?

Protektorat at 12/1 is not representing a good price, nor would 16/1

[ComplyOrDie]

What's the trend and logic behind a horse not winning a Gold Cup at first attempt then doing it? It's pretty strong and fair isn't it?

Protektorat at 12/1 is not representing a good price, nor would 16/1

A Plus Tard done it

Overall I don't think they have the best record though.

[Carnage at Taunton]

What's the trend and logic behind a horse not winning a Gold Cup at first attempt then doing it? It's pretty strong and fair isn't it?

Protektorat at 12/1 is not representing a good price, nor would 16/1

Not particularly bothered about trends to be honest,more interested in how he looks this season and how he could improve to win the race this time.
I like the price myself and have topped up on my previous bets.
Recognise not all think the same, that’s a big part of this betting game.
Hes roughly the same price as this years winner, who right now is in a worse place than Prot, looking at Haydock.
Personally I would have Prot shorter.

[Rooster Booster]

A Plus Tard done it

Overall I don't think they have the best record though.

And native river apart from that what did the Romans ever do for us....nothing to see here

[That Horse]

And native river apart from that what did the Romans ever do for us....nothing to see here

Great reference, apart from the aqueduct, sanitation, medicine, the roads.......

[Odin]

What's the trend and logic behind a horse not winning a Gold Cup at first attempt then doing it? It's pretty strong and fair isn't it?

Protektorat at 12/1 is not representing a good price, nor would 16/1

There's also quite a strong recent trend towards a small number of runs at the distance winning the Gold Cup

A Plus Tard was came 2nd after 3 runs at 3m+, won after 6 runs
Minella Indo was many runs 3m+
Al Boum won 4th and 5th runs at 3m+
Native River was many runs
Sizing John was 2nd run
Don Cossack was 7th run
Coneygree was 3rd run

Previously I'd have agreed that horses don't retain or win after a visit, but maybe it's just number of times going to the well over longer distances - in which case LP/Protektorat could be similarly judged in terms of potential. Also suggests the Galopin has a better chance than both on recent trends as well as it's likely to be his second or third run over 3m+.

Not disagreeing the prices are rubbish though.

[Faugheen_Machine]

There is a slight difference between those two that won the GC having ran in it the previous year......

Native River beaten by less than 3 lengths.
A Plus Tard beaten less and 2 lengths
Protektorat beaten over 17 lengths

[robith]

Native River and APT also got their second attempts run to their strengths

NR got his ground, and Might Bite to make it a test of stamina
APT got a slower run race allowing him to come off the pace

[Odin]

There is a slight difference between those two that won the GC having ran in it the previous year......

Native River beaten by less than 3 lengths.
A Plus Tard beaten less and 2 lengths
Protektorat beaten over 17 lengths

That's fair and I don't think protektorat beats galopin anyway, but 15 of the 17.5 lengths he was beaten were from a freakish performance by a plus tard which based on his Betfair chase performance may have left a mark on him and therefore be irrelevant.

I don't wanna be seen as banging the protektorat is gonna win gun here because I'm not, but I do think his profile deserves as much respect as Lhomme press in the battle for the places

[Faugheen_Machine]

Native River and APT also got their second attempts run to their strengths

NR got his ground, and Might Bite to make it a test of stamina
APT got a slower run race allowing him to come off the pace

Agreed. They were both in close proximity when things weren't in their favour, so didn't have to improve much to win it.

Protektorat was beaten a long way (as was everything else tbf) so I'd be happy to put a line through him when he's priced at 12/1.