2023 Gold Cup

[opatcho]

^^^

L’Homme Presse - he won be right over over the weekend

Connections mentioned he’d need the run last weekend, so where is his ceiling? Gold Cup is A1 target, everything is aimed for that Friday

but that’s easy to say when we’ve just seen Presse, GDC could come out and do a consistution hill

[Magpie]

If I had to make the choice right now, L’homme, was a great weight carrying performance. But Galopin could be anything, and I think he will stay, looking at the way he runs past the line on a few of his wins.

[Odin]

Surprised so much love for LP off the back of that run. Yes it was a super performance and yes, he's likely to improve from it, but beating a bunch of handicappers like that is something frodon could do and essentially did do in the badger but not get near a gold cup (or Ryanair) now.

On the other hand, protektorat has just won the grade 1 Betfair chase after beating frodon 18l and hardly gets a mention. I understand the RSA win from LP last year is obviously a factor, but two days later protektorat was third in a gold cup. Both have run a similar number of times over 3m (3 for LP, 4 for protektorat), and have a surprisingly similar number of runs over fences (7 for LP, 10 for protektorat)

I don't think it matters because galopin wins if he gets around, but I'd have protektorat over LP at the moment.

[FinalFurlong91]

Surprised so much love for LP off the back of that run. Yes it was a super performance and yes, he's likely to improve from it, but beating a bunch of handicappers like that is something frodon could do and essentially did do in the badger but not get near a gold cup (or Ryanair) now.

On the other hand, protektorat has just won the grade 1 Betfair chase after beating frodon 18l and hardly gets a mention. I understand the RSA win from LP last year is obviously a factor, but two days later protektorat was third in a gold cup. Both have run a similar number of times over 3m (3 for LP, 4 for protektorat), and have a surprisingly similar number of runs over fences (7 for LP, 10 for protektorat)

I don't think it matters because galopin wins if he gets around, but I'd have protektorat over LP at the moment.

Protektorat is a very good horse

Personally I have a sneaking suspicion he's at his very best on flat tracks like aintree and haydock

He ran a good race in the gold cup but id say it was a little below his runs in the many clouds and betfair chase (his betway bowl run can be ignored he didn't run to form after a hard race in the gold cup)

I'm definitely not saying he doesn't like Cheltenham, hes run very well there, just think hes a bit better on a flat track

Can definitely see him placing in the gold cup again and maybe winning if it cuts up a bit which it usually does.

[Odin]

Protektorat is a very good horse

Personally I have a sneaking suspicion he's at his very best on flat tracks like aintree and haydock

He ran a good race in the gold cup but id say it was a little below his runs in the many clouds and betfair chase (his betway bowl run can be ignored he didn't run to form after a hard race in the gold cup)

I'm definitely not saying he doesn't like Cheltenham, hes run very well there, just think hes a bit better on a flat track

Can definitely see him placing in the gold cup again and maybe winning if it cuts up a bit which it usually does.

Agree with all this except the preferring flat tracks part - I just had a quick look through his form to see if I was "wrong" but he's actually produced 4 or 5 career best RPRs (i.e. the best to that point) at Cheltenham or Carlisle, suggesting he's just as good at undulating tracks as flat and it's more a case of where he turns up in his preparation for the big race. Game of opinions though

Ps - if anyone hasn't seen it, look at the error he makes at the last in the gold cup last year. I just watched it back - quite amazed he held on to third after that!

PPS - I don't actually have any meaningful money on him, just using him as an English comparison to LP!

[robith]

I love L'Homme Presse - just watching back yesterday's run and that error he made is the kind you see that ends horses races.... so impressed that he came back on the bridle and did it so well.

The disappointing thing is that the market has not under estimated him at all (and how can they) given his 'RSA' win too enhancing his case.

If he was a big price I'd be non-stop talking about him.

If you could only back one, right now..... Galopin Des Champs at 11/4 or L'Homme Presse 7/1 - where would you go?

LHP for sure - winners and placed horses in the 3m novice chase have a great record in the Gold Cup. Whilst GDC is very exciting, LHP has done it at the fest at 3m, in a bog too. I personally believe GDC will get the Gold Cup distance, but you know that LHP does

[CJW]

For me GDC, of the opinion he's my gold cup horse, before the festival last season. No reason to change yet as haven't seen him this season.

[AaronLad]

Surprised so much love for LP off the back of that run. Yes it was a super performance and yes, he's likely to improve from it, but beating a bunch of handicappers like that is something frodon could do and essentially did do in the badger but not get near a gold cup (or Ryanair) now.

On the other hand, protektorat has just won the grade 1 Betfair chase after beating frodon 18l and hardly gets a mention. I understand the RSA win from LP last year is obviously a factor, but two days later protektorat was third in a gold cup. Both have run a similar number of times over 3m (3 for LP, 4 for protektorat), and have a surprisingly similar number of runs over fences (7 for LP, 10 for protektorat)

I don't think it matters because galopin wins if he gets around, but I'd have protektorat over LP at the moment.

Not sure about the Frodon comparison. Frodon won the badger beer off 158, l'homme presse won off 164. Frodon was beaten off 164 in the ultima by 24 lengths the season just gone. Frodon did win a handicap chase off 164 in 2020, then well beaten in the many clouds before he won the king george, he then went off 16/1 finishing 5th in the gold cup. He had a dream build up but still went off 16/1, we know frodon is capable of winning off 158 but not good enough for a gold cup.
l'homme presse just won off 164, we didn't know for sure he was capable of that beforehand, he's done it without needing much encouragement, he's won 6/7 chases, he won the staying novice chase at last seasons festival. So i'm not quite sure what he did saturday is what frodon did in the badger beer.

[Odin]

Frodon did win a handicap chase off 164 in 2020, then well beaten in the many clouds before he won the king george, he then went off 16/1 finishing 5th in the gold cup.

I don't want to labour the point too much, but in a nutshell this quote kind of backs up my argument, which is based around the merits of handicap form Vs gold cup form. I think LP is a good horse and accept hes probably classier thank frodon, but we don't actually know that yet. I'll happily back him in the King George, but off what he's done, I'm surprised he's a stronger fancy/shorter price than protektorat, that's all

[YoungHustler]

I love L'Homme Presse - just watching back yesterday's run and that error he made is the kind you see that ends horses races.... so impressed that he came back on the bridle and did it so well.

The disappointing thing is that the market has not under estimated him at all (and how can they) given his 'RSA' win too enhancing his case.

If he was a big price I'd be non-stop talking about him.

If you could only back one, right now..... Galopin Des Champs at 11/4 or L'Homme Presse 7/1 - where would you go?

Neither. I would have Protektorat at 12s. That 3rd last year was a great run considering he blundered the last in a race where a stronger pace would have suited him more. He was also the youngest in the field last year so has more room for improvement than others.
I must be the very few not greatly impressed with L'Homme Presse on Saturday. I know he wasn't fully fit but just feel he was hanging on. I just haven't taken to him for some reason.
Oh, I would still risk APT ahead of them all if I wasn't already on!

[opatcho]

I’d be worried they can’t string more a bunch of good performances with Protektorat

I’m probably a little negative about him for this season given I had him at decent odds to win last year. Really need to kick out of this frame of thought and should have gone back in on him before his hetfair win. He did look a different horse

[Lobos]

I'd have to go GDC. Got to trust Mullins when he says he's a GC horse and from what we saw last season the potential is endless. He may be the Chasing equivalent of Constitution Hill . A monster in waiting.

After saying the above, I need to have a serious chat with myself as to why I haven't placed a bean on him yet !!

[AaronLad]

I don't want to labour the point too much, but in a nutshell this quote kind of backs up my argument, which is based around the merits of handicap form Vs gold cup form. I think LP is a good horse and accept hes probably classier thank frodon, but we don't actually know that yet. I'll happily back him in the King George, but off what he's done, I'm surprised he's a stronger fancy/shorter price than protektorat, that's all

ok but you did use the fact he beat frodon by 18 lengths in the betfair chase as part of your argument, in 2020 between winning his handicap off 164 and the king george he was beaten 82 lengths in the many clouds by lakeview lad on similarly soft conditions. I wouldnt put too much weight on that performance and also being beaten 17 1/2 lengths in a gold cup wouldn't encourage me he could win in any future attempts. I think l'homme presse deserves to be shorter than protektorat and we can agree to disagree.

[Lobos]

Might be a mistake on Oddschecker but Ahoy Senor has opened 5/4 with PP but is 5/2 with Hills for Many Clouds Chase
Now Evens. Hope a few might have got on. Hoping he takes a big step forward from last time and gets firmly back in the GC picture.

[Lobos]

So Galvin scoped dirty after his last disappointing run. Thought it was too bad to be true. Going for a repeat at Xmas.