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2023 Gold Cup

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  • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

    His jumping was ok, at best I’d say, he got in tight to a lot of fences and although smart enough to adjust wasn’t ideal.

    What I noticed is he landed on all fours a couple of times, normally see it a lot more hurdling where they bunny hop the obstacle.

    Agree he didn’t seem to be travelling all that well from a long way out, could even say from early doors the fact he let Paint The Dream go past on the first circuit before then taking it back up down the back.
    He does bunny hop a fair few fences. It does look very odd and he's then slow away.

    He looked to me like he needed the run. I thought he'd look a lot better based on the sustained support for him.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

      L'homme presse?

      The first two home in the brown advisory were British trained horses

      Galopin and a plus tard are very good the rest aren't that great really are they? All rated sub 170 so not like there's a batallion of top class Irish horses to run in this
      Yeah I get the hype for L'Homme Press though I have the view that he'll need another deluge to be seen at his best whereas the Irish generally seem to be more consistent in any conditions.
      Ahoy Senor put him in his place on decent ground at Aintree and that one couldn't have been more disappointing yesterday.
      I accept it's a blinkered opinion and not my first, but it's not inconceivable all those darlojim listed finish ahead of any UK horse and you could also throw Farouk D'Alene onto that list too...

      Comment


      • Tbh the more I look at the horses in the market the harder it is to see one of a plus tard and galopin not winning

        Galopin for me just looks like a horse with huge levels of ability

        And a plus tard sets a high standard

        I'm not sure last years brown advisory was that good of a race

        Ahoy senor jumped like a snooker table and still finished second, doesn't say much for those in behind him

        Those novices other than galopin will need to improve over a huge amount to get near to a plus tard

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        • The Horse I'd Like to see make an impression for the Gold Cup is Capodanno .
          Got him in quite a few of my Multi's now , I've been easily drawn in by the price compared to the top two in the market.
          Though i accept he's going to have to make a big step up , Beating Bob Olinger in a Chase is not Top Drawer , so it seems.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
            The Horse I'd Like to see make an impression for the Gold Cup is Capodanno .
            Got him in quite a few of my Multi's now , I've been easily drawn in by the price compared to the top two in the market.
            Though i accept he's going to have to make a big step up , Beating Bob Olinger in a Chase is not Top Drawer , so it seems.

            ….notice him put up as their horse to follow this season by a few of the TV punters, including Donn McLean.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
              Tbh the more I look at the horses in the market the harder it is to see one of a plus tard and galopin not winning

              Galopin for me just looks like a horse with huge levels of ability

              And a plus tard sets a high standard
              Do you not see Stattler playing a part FF ?

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              • I would have said Ahoy Senor before yesterday's desperate showing.
                Maybe last season's stellar season is as good as he'll be ? Stepping into Open company has caught many a good horse out. Not all can make the jump up. They'll be plenty this season that don't .

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                • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                  Do you not see Stattler playing a part FF ?
                  I think he won a weak NHC and has a lot to find

                  He could improve but i dont see him being a 170+ horse personally

                  I quite like him as a grand national prospect

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                  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                    I would have said Ahoy Senor before yesterday's desperate showing.
                    Maybe last season's stellar season is as good as he'll be ? Stepping into Open company has caught many a good horse out. Not all can make the jump up. They'll be plenty this season that don't .
                    He didn't run his race yesterday, 25s might be an overreaction

                    If you like him I wouldn't give up just because he ran poorly on reappearance

                    Personally I don't like him because of his jumping, but I'm always happy to forgive a horse for a bad first run of the season

                    Yesterday wasn't his true running whether we fancy him for this or not

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                      Serious question, is there anyone her who thinks there's a UK horse who can finish in the front three in this ?
                      Completely agree on BMG, will look a solid enough candidate for this until everyone is reminded of the strength of the Irish.
                      Irish could easily fill the top 6 spots for me....
                      I think Protektorat will finish third. He may have come second this year if he had not of clattered the final fence and being the youngest in the field, there's more chance of improvement this year. The 33s still on offer is a good price imo and if he gives APT a hard race or even beats him in the Betfair, this price will crash.

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                      • Nice to be back after the holidays and now that the flat has pissed off! Great to see the usual names getting stuck into bets and providing discussion.

                        I think antepost has been fairly rotten in recent years and the prices have put me off everything. This year is especially terrible but the thrill of jumps being back has made me log back in here as well as open Oddschecker since the weekend. Just in time for the Down Royal silly season to begin!

                        I do think I'm going to revert back to taking a closed view opinion on races rather than create a book and get on the right side. Think it will make me enjoy the season and Cheltenham more and I think my best returns in recent times is when I have cut the fluff and just realised 1 + 2 = 3 and bet heavy on my informed opinion.

                        This year everything seems really short with only a couple of bets that have made me think "ah that's decent".

                        Saying that GDC's price really isn't too bad. What he did to Bob was amazing and it was great to see him hack up the next day. What was telling for me was that his jumping was more refined, like he learned his lesson with the big jumps and looked more grown up. But what really caught me that day watching on was for how long he kept galloping on beyond the line. I'd have very little worries about him getting the trip. Sure there were plenty sceptics about APT's staying power, me fairly top of that list, only for us to eat humble pie a year later when he reversed the form with Indo. I've never been on the right side of APT and that trend will hopefully end this year. I think he'd need to be an all timer to come back and win this year, especially against GDC if he's fit and healthy. With that being said Stattler at 20s looks very easy to side with and given the fortune of injuries this year so far, especially from Willie's battalion, I think it might be a play too.

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                        • A Plus Tard looks to have a walkover at Betfair Chase which is no fun for the viewer, Sky have him 6/1 to do the double with GC or almost 10/1 for the bet fair chase & win gold cup by 3 lengths or more.

                          Given he’ll walk around Haydock with 20L in hand and won last years GC by 18L could be a nice play to get him onside at decent odds. Of course could throw another leg into the mix to boost this again.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
                            A Plus Tard looks to have a walkover at Betfair Chase which is no fun for the viewer, Sky have him 6/1 to do the double with GC or almost 10/1 for the bet fair chase & win gold cup by 3 lengths or more.

                            Given he’ll walk around Haydock with 20L in hand and won last years GC by 18L could be a nice play to get him onside at decent odds. Of course could throw another leg into the mix to boost this again.

                            ….also 6-1 with PP.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
                              A Plus Tard looks to have a walkover at Betfair Chase which is no fun for the viewer, Sky have him 6/1 to do the double with GC or almost 10/1 for the bet fair chase & win gold cup by 3 lengths or more.

                              Given he’ll walk around Haydock with 20L in hand and won last years GC by 18L could be a nice play to get him onside at decent odds. Of course could throw another leg into the mix to boost this again.
                              Personally I don’t like the distance bets, they look value but Gold Cups are brutal and not that many are won by 3+ lengths, last season was probably an exception.
                              I’d be interested in removing any distance risk and taking the 6/1….

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                                Personally I don’t like the distance bets, they look value but Gold Cups are brutal and not that many are won by 3+ lengths, last season was probably an exception.
                                I’d be interested in removing any distance risk and taking the 6/1….
                                Yes christ imagine having the winner but losing on distance, think the average over last 10 years is 3.5. The 15l of last year does skew that figure too. Sensible option is the straight double if hes dec

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