2023 Gold Cup

[Quevega]

Although the trainer talks a lot of crap, pre and post race, he's still very good at his job.

And has altered BMG's training regime to try and make him a better horse in Spring than the last 2 seasons.

But - He also stated that this is his time of the year. Kind of a self fulfilling prophecy.
Nichols likes to do this sort of thing and appears to come to conclusions very quickly and then cement them, all by himself.

He's almost convinced himself over the last few years that he's not really capable of training Cheltenham winners anymore.
That, and he knows the Irish horses are much better.

Whilst these two things are in his mind then he'll find it difficult to even run horses there, never mind win with them.

FWIW, Bravemansgame is very good, but still looks weak crossing the line to me.

Comparisons to Galopin de champs aren't that wise.
He looks like he can go round again when he crosses the line.

[riccirich]

Quevega fully agree that he is a very good trainer, my point was more that he is worried about what getting consistently beaten at cheltenham would do for his image, I think most people know that his lack of success at the meeting in recent times is down to him not getting the ammunition that other trainers get, and not down to his lack of training ability, but nevertheless getting beaten out of sight at the festival isn’t going to do much for him attracting new owners to the yard.

And when it comes to the majority of his horses I would fully agree with him, it’s pointless just having runners for the sake of it and getting thumped in every race, but when it comes to horses who clearly have the ability to go there, like bmg, his hesitance screams fear and nothing else. The reasons he is giving for not going don’t really stack up, and this talk of the track not suiting etc sounds as if he’s almost trying to spook the horses owners into agreeing with him not to go there by making it sound like it would be bad for the horse.

i agree that bmg doesn’t look the strongest crossing the line sometimes, I thought the same in one or two of his early runs last season, but I think it could be just down to fitness, as at Kempton last season and the run after Kempton he finished strongly, and even the times when he didn’t finish strongly like today he wasn’t exactly being closed down so it could just be a case of the jockey easing up a little. As for gdc, he does look like he could go round again, but he’s been racing over two and a half miles, his only win over 3m was a hurdle race on an easy track at punchestown, imo he’s done no more to prove his stamina than bmg has.

[FinalFurlong91]

He's more of a realist

If he thinks the horse will win a race at Cheltenham he will run them

If he doesnt think they will beat the irish then he wont run them

this is a trainer who is more than happy to send the likes of frodon and clan to Ireland and take on and beat the Irish in their own backyard

he's not ducking anything he's placing his horses in races he thinks they will win

Cheltenham is brilliant but you end up with things like al boum photo running at tramore not in the Savills or Irish gold cup and nicky being super careful with his top horses

Which isn't good for national hunt racing as a whole

[riccirich]

He's more of a realist

If he thinks the horse will win a race at Cheltenham he will run them

If he doesnt think they will beat the irish then he wont run them

this is a trainer who is more than happy to send the likes of frodon and clan to Ireland and take on and beat the Irish in their own backyard

he's not ducking anything he's placing his horses in races he thinks they will win

Cheltenham is brilliant but you end up with things like al boum photo running at tramore not in the Savills or Irish gold cup and nicky being super careful with his top horses

Which isn't good for national hunt racing as a whole

You could also point to cases like monmiral though, who beat the triumph hurdle second at aintree further than he was beat in the triumph, that also gives weight to the idea that skipping cheltenham for years with horses who were inferior has now led to him having second thoughts about risking going to cheltenham with horses who actually do have the ability.

I also wouldnt particularly point to him bringing frodon over to win a race at down royal where he beat an unfit minella indo on seasonal debut as an example of him being fearless, but yeah it was a clever bit of placing to get a nice win for the horse.

I agree basing your whole season around cheltenham has its negatives as you've pointed out, but horse racing must be the only sport where a good few people, like nicholls, seem to have a bit of a gripe that the sport actually has a pinnacle, its a bit like a manager complaining about everyone focusing on the world cup because he done well in the nations league. You could also argue that avoiding healthy competition in the biggest races (where his horses would have a good chance) in favour of hand picking easier alternatives is also not the best for national hunt racing as a whole.

it wasnt the intention to start a paul nicholls bashing with my last few posts either, he's a very good trainer, it'd be just nice to see him actually go to the best races and take on the best horses when he actually gets the ammunition, hopefully he does.

[FinalFurlong91]

Let's not do frodon down now

He beat a race fit galvin at down royal who went on to beat a plus tard in the savills on his next start

It'll be interesting to see what he does with monmiral this year, he's always been a chaser in the making and not wanting to overface him early in his career is why he went to aintree not Cheltenham

He could be a real contender in the turner's or arkle if good enough, if not he will be going to aintree

[Lobos]

No one's mentioned Ahoy Senor today. Desperate performance. Lucinda just put it down to him running too free early........looked a bit more to it than that to me.

[riccirich]

Let's not do frodon down now

He beat a race fit galvin at down royal who went on to beat a plus tard in the savills on his next start

It'll be interesting to see what he does with monmiral this year, he's always been a chaser in the making and not wanting to overface him early in his career is why he went to aintree not Cheltenham

He could be a real contender in the turner's or arkle if good enough, if not he will be going to aintree

Not trying to do frodon down he's a very admirable horse, but at the time minella indo was the reigning gold cup winner and started fave, but on seasonal debut he wasn't fully fit and nicholls would have known that it was a good time to catch him, no doubting it was good placing and very smart by nicholls, I just wouldn't see it as an example of him being fearless is all.

monmiral Im also interested in seeing how he goes, form wise it looks like he might have been the best juvenile that year on a line through adagio, I think he could yet take high rank and wouldn't be surprised if he's very impressive on chase debut, I think he's a decent price to take a chance on for the arkle/turners, my only worry is he is very impressive but then we hear he doesn't like cheltenham either.

[Quevega]

He's more of a realist

If he thinks the horse will win a race at Cheltenham he will run them

If he doesnt think they will beat the irish then he wont run them

this is a trainer who is more than happy to send the likes of frodon and clan to Ireland and take on and beat the Irish in their own backyard

he's not ducking anything he's placing his horses in races he thinks they will win

Cheltenham is brilliant but you end up with things like al boum photo running at tramore not in the Savills or Irish gold cup and nicky being super careful with his top horses

Which isn't good for national hunt racing as a whole

Maybe a bit of realism.
but there’s definitely a mentality issue also.
his horses lose at every course against all sorts of opposing trainers and they don’t go off favourite every time either.
and he’s also not the richest man on the planet which means he’s not the sooth sayer on when his horses win or not.
he’ll have horses win and lose when not expecting it as much as most top trainers so I don’t buy the whole running them in races they can win narrative.

it’s too basic and at a certain level impossible to judge correctly all the time. It’s wanting to appear smart but to most it’s tinged with fear of failure.

if he mopped up at aintree every year then he’d have a point.
yes he’ll have more winners at aintree and elsewhere but that’s cos he’s running more horses there.

like I said before it’s self fulfilling behaviour.

got to be in it to win it.

[Quevega]

To back up the case against his argument of running them when he thinks they’ve got a chance of winning.

I think he’s down in about 33rd place in win and place percentages at Cheltenham racecourse over the last 5 years.

So he’s 33rd best judge of sending horses to the Cheltenham course. This is not just the festival of course. But demonstrates that his opinion of when a horse has the best chance of winning is not as good as 32 others in the same profession when it comes to this track.

so he doesn’t come across as smart to me when he’s skirting sometimes.

I still like and respect him. He just talks shit sometimes.

if I was questioning him and he trotted out the line about running them when they’re got a chance.

id show him the Cheltenham form table and ask what’s gone wrong??

[FinalFurlong91]

No one's mentioned Ahoy Senor today. Desperate performance. Lucinda just put it down to him running too free early........looked a bit more to it than that to me.

He jumped perfectly OK for him, just wasn't travelling with any zest a long way out

Always a possibility he picked up a little niggle during the race

As he's jumped worse than that in the past and run much better

[Craigy14]

He jumped perfectly OK for him, just wasn't travelling with any zest a long way out

Always a possibility he picked up a little niggle during the race

As he's jumped worse than that in the past and run much better

His jumping was ok, at best I’d say, he got in tight to a lot of fences and although smart enough to adjust wasn’t ideal.

What I noticed is he landed on all fours a couple of times, normally see it a lot more hurdling where they bunny hop the obstacle.

Agree he didn’t seem to be travelling all that well from a long way out, could even say from early doors the fact he let Paint The Dream go past on the first circuit before then taking it back up down the back.

[archie]

Nicholls has travelled this road many times before and he knows his Kauto Stars from his Clan Des Obeaux. Bravemansgame reminds me of Silviniaco Conti and, while I wouldn't rule out a crack at the Gold Cup this season if the owners want it, he knows in his heart that it's just not his race and it will put the argument to bed for future seasons.

[Istabraq]

Serious question, is there anyone her who thinks there's a UK horse who can finish in the front three in this ?
Completely agree on BMG, will look a solid enough candidate for this until everyone is reminded of the strength of the Irish.
Irish could easily fill the top 6 spots for me....

[FinalFurlong91]

Serious question, is there anyone her who thinks there's a UK horse who can finish in the front three in this ?
Completely agree on BMG, will look a solid enough candidate for this until everyone is reminded of the strength of the Irish.
Irish could easily fill the top 6 spots for me....

L'homme presse?

The first two home in the brown advisory were British trained horses

Galopin and a plus tard are very good the rest aren't that great really are they? All rated sub 170 so not like there's a batallion of top class Irish horses to run in this

[darlojim]

Serious question, is there anyone her who thinks there's a UK horse who can finish in the front three in this ?
Completely agree on BMG, will look a solid enough candidate for this until everyone is reminded of the strength of the Irish.
Irish could easily fill the top 6 spots for me....

You could easily have Galopin Des Champs, A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Stattler, Capodanno, Conflated, Galvin finish infront of any British trained horse. The only exception I could see is L'homme Presse as FF alluded to above.