2023 Gold Cup

[Quevega]

Hewick won the US National very easily.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGQD6bRbOsw

Very interesting horse.
Although I think one or two of the other Gold cup contenders could have done something similar, theres plenty who aren't classy enough to be so flexible. Even in a wanky type of race like the US National.

When Hewick won at Sandown, he definitely wouldn't have been one you'd think could do what he's just done.
But he's very much improved and is a lively outsider.
?850 - not bad.

[Lobos]

That's what you call making hay while the sun shines. Fair play.

[Hurricane fly]

2015 - Vautour (1st) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season, despite the 'Gold Cup or nothing stance of RR' (1st)

Looking at your breakdown there CoD you could say anything with the talent for a GC went to it, and with Vautour maybe they decided he wouldn't stay the GC after Cue Card caught him. Sacrilege to say I know but there was a penalty kick and the chance to give an extra year for stamina concern.

I think if GDC comes out and performs well at 3m he will stick to it, Allaho has already proven he won't stay the GC trip at Cheltenham to add a doubt so barring injury I don't see anything other the Allaho to Ryanair and GDC to GC.

[archie]

I think if GDC comes out and performs well at 3m he will stick to it, Allaho has already proven he won't stay the GC trip at Cheltenham to add a doubt so barring injury I don't see anything other the Allaho to Ryanair and GDC to GC.

Agree with that although there's every chance that GDC won't start out over 3 miles as it's not Willie's way and there a shortage of suitable races over 3 miles. It might be the DRF before he tries 3 miles.

[FinalFurlong91]

Agree with that although there's every chance that GDC won't start out over 3 miles as it's not Willie's way and there a shortage of suitable races over 3 miles. It might be the DRF before he tries 3 miles.

I was thinking maybe durkan then Savills chase if he's ready for GDC

Willie runs quite a few of his horses in the durkan to get their seasons started

[archie]

Yes but he tends to avoid G1s for first time in open company. Wouldn't surprise me if he didn't come out until around Christmas. Might even go for the other Savills.

[Saxon Warrior]

I doubt GDC would go near a Grade 1 on his first run in open company

There's limited options pre-Christmas.

Looking at the form book before Christmas, from Listed to Grade 2, from 2M3F upwards
there is

Wexford - Monday 31st October
2M7F Listed Chase
(mentions a Novice allowance too?)

Down Royal - Saturday 5th November
2M3.5F Grade 2 Skymas Chase

Clonmel - Thursday 17th November
2M5F Grade 2 Clonmel Chase

Thats it.

[Odin]

I doubt GDC would go near a Grade 1 on his first run in open company

There's limited options pre-Christmas.

Looking at the form book before Christmas, from Listed to Grade 2, from 2M3F upwards
there is

Wexford - Monday 31st October
2M7F Listed Chase
(mentions a Novice allowance too?)

Down Royal - Saturday 5th November
2M3.5F Grade 2 Skymas Chase

Clonmel - Thursday 17th November
2M5F Grade 2 Clonmel Chase

Thats it.

Any chance he (or any of Willie's others) come over here early in season do you think? Suspect with his fire power this season he could win the trainers championship with a bit of luck?

[Nwfb89]

I doubt GDC would go near a Grade 1 on his first run in open company

There's limited options pre-Christmas.

Looking at the form book before Christmas, from Listed to Grade 2, from 2M3F upwards
there is

Wexford - Monday 31st October
2M7F Listed Chase
(mentions a Novice allowance too?)

Down Royal - Saturday 5th November
2M3.5F Grade 2 Skymas Chase

Clonmel - Thursday 17th November
2M5F Grade 2 Clonmel Chase

Thats it.

Sax I think there's a race at thurles mid to late November that maybe could be a option, seem to remember being won by presenting percy and footpad in recent years

[ComplyOrDie]

Looking at your breakdown there CoD you could say anything with the talent for a GC went to it, and with Vautour maybe they decided he wouldn't stay the GC after Cue Card caught him. Sacrilege to say I know but there was a penalty kick and the chance to give an extra year for stamina concern.

I think if GDC comes out and performs well at 3m he will stick to it, Allaho has already proven he won't stay the GC trip at Cheltenham to add a doubt so barring injury I don't see anything other the Allaho to Ryanair and GDC to GC.

I'd say the breakdown doesn't suggest this. His four winners of the Golden Miller are split equally for the following season (I was actually hoping this part of the data may help, but it wasn't to be):

Gold Cup - 1 (Sir Des Champs)
Ryanair - 1 (Vautour)
Champion Hurdle - 1 (Yorkhill)
No Run - 1 (Black Hercules)

I would also disagree that Allaho won't stay the Gold Cup trip. Horses can improve and grow massively (physically and mentally) and I think Allaho has done that since his novice days.

As I said in my post, I do think it is something that will just run and run, until final declarations. Willie tends to keep all options open and I'd be surprised if he let the cat out of the bag before then.

[Saxon Warrior]

Sax I think there's a race at thurles mid to late November that maybe could be a option, seem to remember being won by presenting percy and footpad in recent years

I saw the Thurles one over 2M6F on 1st December, but excluded it as it was for horses that hadn’t won more than €50,000 since 2nd May 2021.

I think that may be the one you refer to.

[Hurricane fly]

I'd say the breakdown doesn't suggest this. His four winners of the Golden Miller are split equally for the following season (I was actually hoping this part of the data may help, but it wasn't to be):

Gold Cup - 1 (Sir Des Champs)
Ryanair - 1 (Vautour)
Champion Hurdle - 1 (Yorkhill)
No Run - 1 (Black Hercules)

I would also disagree that Allaho won't stay the Gold Cup trip. Horses can improve and grow massively (physically and mentally) and I think Allaho has done that since his novice days.

As I said in my post, I do think it is something that will just run and run, until final declarations. Willie tends to keep all options open and I'd be surprised if he let the cat out of the bag before then.

For me, the classy horses on the lists are aimed at the GC until they prove they aren't.

Vautour aside. you may want to include Melon in that list but he was tried at 3m twice and his DRF performance was probably what resulted in him dropping back to the Ryanair trip.

Classy is obviously subjective but to me, they are given the chance to prove they can step up and are GC horses first and then if they aren't they revert to the Ryanair. So I've no reason to think GDC won't be treated any different.

[FinalFurlong91]

Galopin stayed 3 miles strongly as a 5yo over hurdles

i personally dont see him having stamina issues in a gold cup as a more physically mature 7yo

iv not backed him though because I think he should be 5/1-6/1 this far out and he's 7/2

After all he still has to prove he can step up into open company, i believe he will, but hes priced up like he already has

Plenty of very good novices simply don't make that leap and its not taken into consideration in his price

[Nwfb89]

I saw the Thurles one over 2M6F on 1st December, but excluded it as it was for horses that hadn’t won more than €50,000 since 2nd May 2021.

I think that may be the one you refer to.

Yes sure that would be the one I was thinking of didn't realise there was conditions like that to be eligible to run, I think tramore on nyd could be a likely starting point for gdc

[charlie]

Galopin stayed 3 miles strongly as a 5yo over hurdles

i personally dont see him having stamina issues in a gold cup as a more physically mature 7yo

iv not backed him though because I think he should be 5/1-6/1 this far out and he's 7/2

After all he still has to prove he can step up into open company, i believe he will, but hes priced up like he already has

Plenty of very good novices simply don't make that leap and its not taken into consideration in his price

FYI he's 6/1 to go unbeaten with Sky (must run 3 times).