2023 Gold Cup

[robith]

Down Royal not mentioned by Nicholls who highlighted 3 potential starting points for BMG so imagine it's a token entry.

[Lobos]

If Allaho is to run in the KG then he will surely need a prep run first. I wonder if he’ll get an entry at down royal if the KG is the plan!

Didn't Willie say after his Punchestown win that they would seriously have to think about the King George? He's absolutely made for the race.

[darlojim]

Didn't Willie say after his Punchestown win that they would seriously have to think about the King George? He's absolutely made for the race.

highly likely to just follow the tried and tested route of last season though surely?

[charlie]

Allaho King George makes lots of sense but IMO I don't think that means he'll end up here, not at all. Feels a bit daft typing that after he's posted an RPR equal to Don Cossack over 3m LTO but the KG and GC are two completely different tests and we all know that. Willie seems quite happy farming the Ryanair. Its not entirely inconceivable but I think something would have to happen to APT for it to be seriously considered and/or GDC disappoints or doesn't make it. If Allaho were mine I'd probably go for the Gold Cup on the basis he'd have no problem coming back to the Ryanair in 2024 at 10yo, but at 9 next year its now or never to win the race everyone wants to win. I don't think Willie will think like that and I'm almost certain having now won the GC that CPS won't get too involved so I think he'll go KG and then hopefully GC rumours will push the Ryanair price out a little so I can wade in.

[Lobos]

highly likely to just follow the tried and tested route of last season though surely?

I'd have said the same before his last race demolition job over 3 miles Right Handed. The KG is at his mercy. Willie has said though that the GC would be a step too far so KG then revert to Ryanair and leave GC to APT.

Here's one of many quotes after Punchestown....

Mullins (above) said: ‘He’s some engine. I was a bit worried he could only do that over two-and-a-half miles but now he can do it over three and he’ll be more mature next year. He’s only eight years old.
‘That opens up a lot more options for him now. You could probably say King George the way he jumps.’


The usual "Could' from Willie


And re GC.....

“I don’t know,” he pondered. “That opens a lot more options for him, so you could possibly say the King George. He has a huge engine and he is going to be more mature again next year.
"But another quarter of a mile is tough. I do think he would probably be better going left-handed too, so I just don’t know. When you see what he can do over two and a half, you wonder.”

[Odin]

Allaho King George makes lots of sense but IMO I don't think that means he'll end up here, not at all. Feels a bit daft typing that after he's posted an RPR equal to Don Cossack over 3m LTO but the KG and GC are two completely different tests and we all know that. Willie seems quite happy farming the Ryanair. Its not entirely inconceivable but I think something would have to happen to APT for it to be seriously considered and/or GDC disappoints or doesn't make it. If Allaho were mine I'd probably go for the Gold Cup on the basis he'd have no problem coming back to the Ryanair in 2024 at 10yo, but at 9 next year its now or never to win the race everyone wants to win. I don't think Willie will think like that and I'm almost certain having now won the GC that CPS won't get too involved so I think he'll go KG and then hopefully GC rumours will push the Ryanair price out a little so I can wade in.

All ifs and buts and highly speculative at this point, but just out of interest for thoughts at this point...

If Allaho goes to KG (and wins/runs well), but GDC hasn't yet reappeared due to his niggle would you still wade in on Allaho for Ryanair? For argument sake we could say APT has won Betfair Chase at this point and run well enough in the Savills (top 3 like last year)

[Lobos]

All ifs and buts and highly speculative at this point, but just out of interest for thoughts at this point...

If Allaho goes to KG (and wins/runs well), but GDC hasn't yet reappeared due to his niggle would you still wade in on Allaho for Ryanair? For argument sake we could say APT has won Betfair Chase at this point and run well enough in the Savills (top 3 like last year)

In a word Yes.

[charlie]

All ifs and buts and highly speculative at this point, but just out of interest for thoughts at this point...

If Allaho goes to KG (and wins/runs well), but GDC hasn't yet reappeared due to his niggle would you still wade in on Allaho for Ryanair? For argument sake we could say APT has won Betfair Chase at this point and run well enough in the Savills (top 3 like last year)

Yes I would.

[Odin]

I've been thinking the same so good to hear guys, thank you.

[Istabraq]

All ifs and buts and highly speculative at this point, but just out of interest for thoughts at this point...

If Allaho goes to KG (and wins/runs well), but GDC hasn't yet reappeared due to his niggle would you still wade in on Allaho for Ryanair? For argument sake we could say APT has won Betfair Chase at this point and run well enough in the Savills (top 3 like last year)

For me the Ryanair is pretty much a penalty kick for Allaho, nothing has got near him for 2 years in that and I can’t imagine any newbies appearing that will be the 20lb better they will need to be than those who’ve taken him on before.
The only spanner I can see is if anything should happen to A Plus Tard and Cheveley Park are left without a staying chaser, and that would also need to be in conjunction with an absent GDC.
So yes, I’d still be making Allaho for the Ryanair the basis of multiples….

[Kautostar]

So no entry at down royal for Allaho. Where do we think he’s likely to get his prep run if he’s to run in the KG? The John Durkan will surely be too close this year and we know Allaho doesn’t show his best fresh so I doubt he’d go to kempton first time out.

[ComplyOrDie]

There has been a little discussion about Willie's horses, namely Allaho and Galopin Des Champs, and their respective targets, for the coming season.

I think Allaho's target could probably speak for itself in any other year, but with Willie having GDC as an option too, this may well end up running until final declarations, so I've decided to delve into Willie's previous runners of the Turners Novices Chase, and where they've ended up the following season at the festival, if at all:

2011 - Blazing Tempo (5th) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season (PU)

2012 - Sir Des Champs (1st) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (2nd to Bobs Worth)

2013 - Aupcharlie (11th) - No run the following season
2013 - Marito (F) - No run the following season

2014 - Felix Yonger (4th) - No run the following season, but ended up in the Champion Chase the season after (PU)
2014 - Mozoltov (F) - No run the following season
2014 - Djakadam (F) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (2nd to Coneygree)

2015 - Vautour (1st) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season, despite the 'Gold Cup or nothing stance of RR' (1st)
2015 - Valseur Lido (3rd) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season (2nd to Vautour)

2016 - Black Hercules (1st) - No run the following season
2016 - Outlander (F) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (10th)

2017 - Yorkhill (1st) - Ran in the Champion Hurdle the following season

2018 - Kemboy (4th) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (UR)
2018 - Invitation Only (PU) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (F)

2019 - Real Steel (6th) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (6th)
2019 - Pravalaguna (9th) - No run the following season
2019 - Voix Du Reve (F) - No run the following season

2020 - Melon (2nd) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season (PU)
2020 - Faugheen (3rd) - No run the following season
2020 - Tornado Flyer (5th) - Ran in the Ryanair the following season (3rd)
2020 - Bapaume (8th) - No run the following season

2021 - Asterion Forlonge (3rd) - Ran in the Gold Cup the following season (7th)
2021 - Blackbow (6th) - No run the following season


To break it down (following season):

No Run = 10
Gold Cup = 7
Ryanair = 5
Champion Hurdle = 1


I'm not sure what I was expecting to find, going through the results, but I was surprised to see so many of his runners not even make it to the festival the following season. It would raise slight concerns, especially as Willie, already, before the season has properly begun, noted that Galopin has had a slight niggle. Not exactly ideal, despite how minor this may be. I think we can safely discount the anomaly, which was the Champion Hurdle run, of the enigmatic, Yorkhill.

Just to break it down a little further, the results of the following season runs:
Gold Cup - 2nd - 2
6th - 1
7th - 1
10th - 1
UR - 1
F - 1

Ryanair - 1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
PU - 2


There is a very slight edge favouring a Gold Cup run over a Ryanair, however, WPM has definitely been more successful with the ones who have gone to the Ryanair from the Golden Miller Novices Chase. Currently sitting with a Win/Place percentage of 60% for the Ryanair but only 28.57% in the Gold Cup. Obviously the sample size isn't exactly massive, but the results are based on the previous 11 runnings of the race, which is all I have to go on.

Personally, I liken the performance of Galopin Des Champs to a Vautour, but this purely to my untrained eye.

I do think, the debate on which race either Allaho or Galopin Des Champs run in, will just run and run and run, and I was hoping delving into some historical data that it may somehow lead to a edge, but ultimately it probably just makes it more complicated, so sorry chaps

I don't think anyone can definitively say which way this one is going to play out, possibly not even Willie himself, yet!

[Odin]

For me the Ryanair is pretty much a penalty kick for Allaho, nothing has got near him for 2 years in that and I can’t imagine any newbies appearing that will be the 20lb better they will need to be than those who’ve taken him on before.
The only spanner I can see is if anything should happen to A Plus Tard and Cheveley Park are left without a staying chaser, and that would also need to be in conjunction with an absent GDC.
So yes, I’d still be making Allaho for the Ryanair the basis of multiples….

Yeah, this is exactly how I see it.

There was a part of me that was interested in how much of an influence GDC had on others' thoughts - I can't really understand any reason why Cheveley Park wouldn't want to go for an unprecedented double-treble either - would be a pretty phenomenal achievement for anyone, but for them from such a small number of horses it would be absolutely outrageous wouldn't it?

[Lobos]

So no entry at down royal for Allaho. Where do we think he’s likely to get his prep run if he’s to run in the KG? The John Durkan will surely be too close this year and we know Allaho doesn’t show his best fresh so I doubt he’d go to kempton first time out.

If Mullins sends him to the KG then he'll go straight there imo. Willie will get him race fit at home for a big target like that. No better person.

[robith]

lol i do not remember making this let alone posting it