2023 Gold Cup

[Stormez]

Whatever happens in the end, I've got to say that this is potentially looking like the best Gold Cup for a good while.

We seem to say this at the start of every season don’t we! Always end up getting robbed of a least a couple of the biggest players though.

The favourite for last seasons Gold Cup had already been ruled out by this time last year

Its got to all come together one year though so hope you’re right!

[DenmanSacre]

I'd say at this time, APT at 4/1 is better value than 7/2 for GDC, when we haven't seen him over 3m over fences, let alone 3m2f.

APT and Allaho are the best staying chasers and GDC timewise was a fair way behind Allaho at Cheltenham this year. He needs to improve a good 10-15 lengths on his novice form to me to reach their level. Can he do it - of course he can. The step up in trip alone can bring that improvement but he doesn't deserve to be a shorter price than APT at this time.

[Hurricane fly]

Tomorrow's race is interesting, if both RWF and Galvin run one of them must be going for the win and the other to get their mark down for the GN.

[robith]

I'd say at this time, APT at 4/1 is better value than 7/2 for GDC, when we haven't seen him over 3m over fences, let alone 3m2f.

APT and Allaho are the best staying chasers and GDC timewise was a fair way behind Allaho at Cheltenham this year. He needs to improve a good 10-15 lengths on his novice form to me to reach their level. Can he do it - of course he can. The step up in trip alone can bring that improvement but he doesn't deserve to be a shorter price than APT at this time.

Price wise I agree with you, but I also think whilst the returning champ will be naturally short, I wouldn't be keen to back currently. The race couldn't have been run any more for APT's benefit - with the up and coming horses you can't count on Rachel being able to store him up again

[Craigy14]

If Monkfish returns prior to the spring festivals, WPM could have 4 decent chances in the race if horses progress in open company.

Galopin Des Champs
Capodanno
Stattler
Monkfish

I have to say I fully expect to see Allaho in the Ryanair again next year. Send him over for the king George, spin round Thurles in Jan then onto being a 3 time Ryanair winner.

The only way I see it possibly changing is if he has a change of heart in terms of GDC only being 7 in march so has time on his side to step up to gold cup year after.

I don’t fancy any of the returning horses at all, line right through those, other than the current champ A Plus Tard.

[FinalFurlong91]

If Monkfish returns prior to the spring festivals, WPM could have 4 decent chances in the race if horses progress in open company.

Galopin Des Champs
Capodanno
Stattler
Monkfish

I have to say I fully expect to see Allaho in the Ryanair again next year. Send him over for the king George, spin round Thurles in Jan then onto being a 3 time Ryanair winner.

The only way I see it possibly changing is if he has a change of heart in terms of GDC only being 7 in march so has time on his side to step up to gold cup year after.

I don’t fancy any of the returning horses at all, line right through those, other than the current champ A Plus Tard.

Only way I can see allaho actually turn up at kempton is of he starts off earlier than the john durkan

The gap between the durkan and King George is a week or two too short and I can't see Willie risking bottoming him out

I'd love to see him at kempton because i think hed have them strung out like the washing a mile out but i think it risks blowing his cheltenham/punchestown if he does. Unless he starts in say the clonmel oil chase which seems unlikely.

[Kautostar]

If Allaho is to run in the KG then he will surely need a prep run first. I wonder if he’ll get an entry at down royal if the KG is the plan!

[Craigy14]

Only way I can see allaho actually turn up at kempton is of he starts off earlier than the john durkan

The gap between the durkan and King George is a week or two too short and I can't see Willie risking bottoming him out

I'd love to see him at kempton because i think hed have them strung out like the washing a mile out but i think it risks blowing his cheltenham/punchestown if he does. Unless he starts in say the clonmel oil chase which seems unlikely.

I reckon he could probably beat what’s likely to run from over here on debut. He won’t be fully tuned but I’m sure wpm could have him ripe for Xmas and then afford to ease off a little for his second run and tune him back up for march.

Agree he won’t run in both the John durkan and king George though.

[jono]

I'd be very wary of Allaho going into the King George first time out.
Few horses have tried to do so. Clan des Obeaux probably the most high profile in the last few renewals who failed when 7/2.
Waiting Patiently ran a decent race in 2nd one year.
And it's a Willie Mullins horse so you have to factor in he can knock any trend / stat out the water.
But it is a fairly big negative for me. It's a big task to win one of these big 3 mile chases first time out.
It's why so many horses, and almost every winner (certainly each of the past 20 years) has gone into the race off the back of a run.
Likewise with the Savills Chase in Ireland.

It would take some doing, even with the amount he has in hand.
And importantly we have 4 seasons of evidence that shows he has tended to need his first run of the season.
With 3/4 of his seasonal debuts resulting in a defeat (fav, fav and 2nd fav in each).
He won the John Durkan last season at the 4th time of asking. And whilst that was decent field. It was arguably his least impressive performance of the season. Both visually and in regards to ratings. Mullins was also keen to stress how hard a race he had, and much it looked to take out of him.

Later on in the season, against all bar perhaps Galopin des Champs I think he'd destroy the field, much like at Punchestown.
However - I think a sharp, right handed track (he has a tendency to jump left) could find him out, if he's going there first time out.

Mullins used the Ascot Chase (Vautour) and the Clonmel Oil Chase (Champagne Fever) for King George preps in previous years.
Either would suit Allaho well. And the timing between those races and the KG would suit.

But essentially unless connections seriously want to consider him for the Gold Cup next March (which id like to see)...it'll be the tried and tested route for Allaho. And that won't include Christmas time.

[charlie]

As per my diary I added Conflated @ 80's for this. I think it was a mistake going for the Ryanair and not one they'll make again. His Irish Gold Cup run more than deserved a crack at the Gold Cup and I thought his 2nd to CDO at Aintree supported that view (a race he would have won over another 100 yards). That was a serious performance at Aintree given he fell at Cheltenham, has to go left handed and ran well on ground he may have preferred softer. If he's capable of running to an RPR of 172 under those circumstances then there is no reason to believe this 168 rated chaser at 8 going on 9 can't run to an even higher level and 80's just feels too big in the hands of a trainer like Gordon Elliott. Other than Galvin (who we'll see later today), Gordon doesn't really have much else that stands out for the race. Conflated is joint 3rd on ratings for staying chasers in Ireland, only bettered by the two weapons ahead of him in APT and GDC. APT is a superstar and GDC has all the potential in the world, but it's a long season and there will be plenty of hard luck stories, so I think 80's is far too big for what looks like being Gordon's number 1 Gold Cup horse.

[Istabraq]

As per my diary I added Conflated @ 80's for this.

Some price that, good work.
I backed him a week after Cheltenham at 40/1 and 33/1 and thought I would be ahead of the curve, that said, I was speaking to a proper judge very close to the game over the weekend and he’s convinced Conflated won’t stay, have to say it’s not a view I share but I have to respect what I was told…

[Lobos]

Some price that, good work.
I backed him a week after Cheltenham at 40/1 and 33/1 and thought I would be ahead of the curve, that said, I was speaking to a proper judge very close to the game over the weekend and he’s convinced Conflated won’t stay, have to say it’s not a view I share but I have to respect what I was told…

Sort of backs up why they went Ryanair this year then.

[charlie]

Some price that, good work.
I backed him a week after Cheltenham at 40/1 and 33/1 and thought I would be ahead of the curve, that said, I was speaking to a proper judge very close to the game over the weekend and he’s convinced Conflated won’t stay, have to say it’s not a view I share but I have to respect what I was told…

Cheers Ista. I wouldn't be certain he stays but I suppose I'm on the right price to find out.

[Hurricane fly]

Is there any thought GDC could be a KG horse for his introduction up to 3m?

Allaho isn't the only potential GC horse that needs to prove stamina

[archie]

Is there any thought GDC could be a KG horse for his introduction up to 3m?

Allaho isn't the only potential GC horse that needs to prove stamina

Apart from the fact that he's won at 3 miles over hurdles, beating those doubtful stayers Stattler and Vanillier, it would be wholly unlike Willie to send his new star over here for his first big open test. We don't yet know how far forward they are, and GDC probably takes a fair amount of getting straight, but if he goes anywhere at Christmas it will surely be the Savills.