2023 Gold Cup

[charlie]

12/1 on APT (Bet365) all gone. Into 9s

Was that the first proper bookie over reaction we've seen?

[BookieBasher]

Was that the first proper bookie over reaction we've seen?

If nothing comes to light regarding APT then it could be a gift from the gods

[HoldenTheReins]

If nothing comes to light regarding APT then it could be a gift from the gods

I'd be concerned more if they find nothing as he was awful. Would rather see him run well next time out better then back then.

[charlie]

If nothing comes to light regarding APT then it could be a gift from the gods

Regardless of eventual outcome I think 12's was a great price. Running poorly at Haydock on debut in a Grade 1 on ground that was probably softer than ideal is very forgivable IMO.

[HesTheOne]

Regardless of eventual outcome I think 12's was a great price. Running poorly at Haydock on debut in a Grade 1 on ground that was probably softer than ideal is very forgivable IMO.

12s was a super price, although pining it down to the ground would be nice but HDB doesn’t subscribe to that idea

“Rachael said she was never happy and I felt it was too bad to be down to the ground. We’re stunned really about it”

if I’m remember correctly did someone on the forum highlight noticeable lay bets on APT way back in Aug/Sept/Oct? Can’t remember who or when it was but jumps to mind

Edit - It was way back in June (post #687) this was highlighted - not sure what it means now but interesting none the less

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/369572-cheltenham-2023-early-fancies/page46#post375274

[ComplyOrDie]

if I’m remember correctly did someone on the forum highlight noticeable lay bets on APT way back in Aug/Sept/Oct? Can’t remember who or when it was but jumps to mind

He was very weak for a short period yeah.

Just had a look on the exchanges and he was matched a while back at 10's & 12's, not for large stakes but still bits. It's almost like they knew he wasn't going to perform first time out Highest price he has been traded at is 14's on the exchanges, but this was after that run, and also for not large stakes.

[Saxon Warrior]

He was very weak for a short period yeah.

Just had a look on the exchanges and he was matched a while back at 10's & 12's, not for large stakes but still bits. It's almost like they knew he wasn't going to perform first time out Highest price he has been traded at is 14's on the exchanges, but this was after that run, and also for not large stakes.

He went weak on the Exchange, in the summer, I noticed that he went out to 10s, and I also saw the move out from 12s to 33s on Love Envoi for the Mares Hurdle, at around the same time.

Neither had any news about them anywhere, Twitter, Internet etc, so I assumed they could be an issue of sorts.

I ignored the APT one, and have never heard anything about it since.

I took the 33s on Love Envoi, and have read several quotes since, that she had a problem, for a short time, but is back and should run pre-Christmas, and Harry Fry has a pre-defined race plan working back from the Mares Hurdle.

There’s risk’s attached to acting on those BFX moves, it could be anyone doing it for a variety of reasons, of course.

When I see them, I always try and search for answers before deciding whether to back or not,

It was purely higher price and better opposition driven that I risked the 33s and not the 10s.

[Exar Essay]

He went weak on the Exchange, in the summer, I noticed that he went out to 10s, and I also saw the move out from 12s to 33s on Love Envoi for the Mares Hurdle, at around the same time.

Neither had any news about them anywhere, Twitter, Internet etc, so I assumed they could be an issue of sorts.

I ignored the APT one, and have never heard anything about it since.

I took the 33s on Love Envoi, and have read several quotes since, that she had a problem, for a short time, but is back and should run pre-Christmas, and Harry Fry has a pre-defined race plan working back from the Mares Hurdle.

There’s risk’s attached to acting on those BFX moves, it could be anyone doing it for a variety of reasons, of course.

When I see them, I always try and search for answers before deciding whether to back or not,

It was purely higher price and better opposition driven that I risked the 33s and not the 10s.

Same thing happened with Facile Vega. All Supreme Bets were filled and there was a spike to 8.8 for the Ballymore on the same day.

[Native River]

Solid weight giving performance there from L'Homme, Charlie's asked for nothing and he's won that at a stroll

[Black Dog]

A solid 170ish performance without asking a serious question. Certainly puts down a decent marker.

[FinalFurlong91]

A solid 170ish performance without asking a serious question. Certainly puts down a decent marker.

Was quite impressed with that

Looks capable of running to 175+ doesn't he if improving as the season goes on

[Hurricane fly]

I think more top class horses should run in races like that, they carry 11'12 in pretty much every race so they aren't really carrying more than they are used to and it's about whether the other horses can simply run as fast as they can.

You could take 3 stone off a lot of horses and they still will
not have the ability to run at the pace required.

I don't think trainers should be scared to do so and it opens up a lot more options for horses to have runs.

[Black Dog]

Was quite impressed with that

Looks capable of running to 175+ doesn't he if improving as the season goes on

He's a contender for sure.

[Stormez]

I think more top class horses should run in races like that, they carry 11'12 in pretty much every race so they aren't really carrying more than they are used to and it's about whether the other horses can simply run as fast as they can.

You could take 3 stone off a lot of horses and they still will
not have the ability to run at the pace required.

I don't think trainers should be scared to do so and it opens up a lot more options for horses to have runs.

I’ve always wondered this myself. Ask Tiger Roll to carry 11’12 in a graded race & it would be fine, ask him to do it in the National & it becomes a welfare issue

[Kevloaf]

I love L'Homme Presse - just watching back yesterday's run and that error he made is the kind you see that ends horses races.... so impressed that he came back on the bridle and did it so well.

The disappointing thing is that the market has not under estimated him at all (and how can they) given his 'RSA' win too enhancing his case.

If he was a big price I'd be non-stop talking about him.

If you could only back one, right now..... Galopin Des Champs at 11/4 or L'Homme Presse 7/1 - where would you go?