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2023 Stayers Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

    I would like to think they are trying to find a way of getting both horses, the best chance of winning a race.
    Running in the same race won’t do it, unless they dead heat!!
    They may end up with no wins, but then again….
    The best chance would be Marie's Rock in the Mares and Epatante can wait for Aintree.

    Epatante is well covered by Honeysuckle already. I think this trip is more likely to show that even more than over 2m as well.

    Epatante would lose to Marie's Rock over 2m4f, IMO.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by riccirich View Post
      While I agree that henderson and boinville are thinking about themselves more than the owners, I don't think they're the only trainer who operate in that way, so If your gonna criticise them I think you have to criticise them all.

      if sir gerhard was trained by anybody else then there's no way he'd be going for the banc after a winning two mile debut where he made one bad error, the natural thinking would of course be to move him up half a mile as he has plenty of speed and you couldn't be positive he'll stay 3m, especially after pulling like a train in the ballymore last year and just about getting away with it. The sole reason for them favouring the banc is willie and paul have appreciate it in the turners.

      elliott was apparently going to run quilixios in the boodles to avoid zanahiyr. I think he would have found it very hard to give all that weight to jeff kidder,but was obviously good enough to win the triumph.

      personally if I owned a horse with any of these top trainers it would bug me whenever they'd start trying to convince me to run my horse in a certain race, simply because they have something else in the more obvious race. You couldn't help but feel they're not looking after your best interests, and the likes of gavin cromwell would start to seem like maybe a better choice to avoid that sort of thing. Thats the tightrope you havd to walk I suppose when you grow your stable to such a huge size, its going to be hard to keep everyone happy and not look like your playing favourites with one owner over another.
      Don't disagree with your general point, but the difference with all of those examples is that none are the defending champion of the race they are/were/could be moved from. For me, a comparative example (feel free to disagree anyone) would be Allaho moving to the Gold Cup for Galopin to run in the Ryanair this year

      Comment


      • Originally posted by riccirich View Post
        While I agree that henderson and boinville are thinking about themselves more than the owners, I don't think they're the only trainer who operate in that way, so If your gonna criticise them I think you have to criticise them all.

        if sir gerhard was trained by anybody else then there's no way he'd be going for the banc after a winning two mile debut where he made one bad error, the natural thinking would of course be to move him up half a mile as he has plenty of speed and you couldn't be positive he'll stay 3m, especially after pulling like a train in the ballymore last year and just about getting away with it. The sole reason for them favouring the banc is willie and paul have appreciate it in the turners.

        elliott was apparently going to run quilixios in the boodles to avoid zanahiyr. I think he would have found it very hard to give all that weight to jeff kidder,but was obviously good enough to win the triumph.

        personally if I owned a horse with any of these top trainers it would bug me whenever they'd start trying to convince me to run my horse in a certain race, simply because they have something else in the more obvious race. You couldn't help but feel they're not looking after your best interests, and the likes of gavin cromwell would start to seem like maybe a better choice to avoid that sort of thing. Thats the tightrope you havd to walk I suppose when you grow your stable to such a huge size, its going to be hard to keep everyone happy and not look like your playing favourites with one owner over another.
        Excellent post, what’s good for the goose and all that!!

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

          The best chance would be Marie's Rock in the Mares and Epatante can wait for Aintree.

          Epatante is well covered by Honeysuckle already. I think this trip is more likely to show that even more than over 2m as well.

          Epatante would lose to Marie's Rock over 2m4f, IMO.
          Ok, the best chance of winning a race at Cheltenham then, which is what I meant.

          Is Epatante well covered by Honeysuckle?
          Not so sure after watching both this season.
          Im not sure either re Epatante and Marie’s.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Odin View Post

            Don't disagree with your general point, but the difference with all of those examples is that none are the defending champion of the race they are/were/could be moved from. For me, a comparative example (feel free to disagree anyone) would be Allaho moving to the Gold Cup for Galopin to run in the Ryanair this year
            Need to remember she's being moved up to take in a championship race like. She's not being moved to a lesser contest.

            Doubt many were saying Honeysuckle should be back in the Mares as defending champion, when she went for the Champion Hurdle the year after winning this.

            ​​​​​​​

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post

              Need to remember she's being moved up to take in a championship race like. She's not being moved to a lesser contest.

              Doubt many were saying Honeysuckle should be back in the Mares as defending champion, when she went for the Champion Hurdle the year after winning this.
              That's fair but still fits with my Galopin/Allaho example as Allaho would be moving up to the Championship race in that scenario, whereas Galopin would "just" be stepping out of novice company.

              Also - Honey had won the Irish Champion Hurdle twice at the point you're talking about. I'd have a completely different opinion on MR for this race if she'd won (or even just run well in) either the Long Walk or the Long Distance hurdle at Newbury in November this season.

              The good news is my opinion doesn't matter - hopefully she wins the Stayers (or goes close) as a close place would justify the decision for me

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                Is Epatante well covered by Honeysuckle?
                .
                She's watched Honeysuckles back side scoot clear 3 times out of 3, she's plenty covered.

                She also finished behind Marie's Rock at Punchestown, a track that should have suited a speed horse like Epatante, more than Marie's Rock, IMO.

                Epatante is 9, having had 21 lifetime starts, Marie's Rock is 8, having had 13 lifetime starts, who is more likely to have some amount of improvement left in them?
                Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 1 March 2023, 11:34 AM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                  She's watched Honeysuckles back side scoot clear 3 times out of 3, she's plenty covered.

                  She also finished behind Marie's Rock at Punchestown, a track that should have suited a speed horse like Epatante, more than Marie's Rock, IMO.
                  I think Honey has regressed, I don’t think Epatante has, so that makes me unsure.
                  I don’t particularly like end of season form when looking at the following years Cheltenham.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Carnage at Taunton View Post

                    I think Honey has regressed, I don’t think Epatante has, so that makes me unsure.
                    I don’t particularly like end of season form when looking at the following years Cheltenham.
                    I'd argue that both have tbh.

                    Based on her Hatton's Grace run I'd say Honeysuckle has not regressed much at all, based on her Irish Champion Hurdle run then you could say she has, but State Man is no mug and she's only 4 1/2 lengths off him. That's solid enough form and for me, better than what Epatante has achieved this season over 2m.

                    You don't have to like end of season form, that's an opinion and I respect it's yours but the result is there, regardless.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                      She's watched Honeysuckles back side scoot clear 3 times out of 3, she's plenty covered.

                      She also finished behind Marie's Rock at Punchestown, a track that should have suited a speed horse like Epatante, more than Marie's Rock, IMO.

                      Epatante is 9, having had 21 lifetime starts, Marie's Rock is 8, having had 13 lifetime starts, who is more likely to have some amount of improvement left in them?
                      My personal opinion is that Marie’s Will improve for a step up.
                      I think Epatante is showing this season she’s probably about the level she’s been for last few years, and I expect her to run to that in March. Whether Marie’s betters that given the chance, I’m not sure.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                        I'd argue that both have tbh.

                        Based on her Hatton's Grace run I'd say Honeysuckle has not regressed much at all, based on her Irish Champion Hurdle run then you could say she has, but State Man is no mug and she's only 4 1/2 lengths off him. That's solid enough form and for me, better than what Epatante has achieved this season over 2m.

                        You don't have to like end of season form, that's an opinion and I respect it's yours but the result is there, regardless.
                        It’s a fair argument re regressing.
                        State Man against CH might go some way to sorting that one out.
                        I do think though that State Man will be a better horse in March than he was against Honey.

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                        • If you're being asked to step aside for Epatante, it's surely only fair that JP lets you know what the green and gold, red hat plot is for the fest imo

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                          • Personally I don't think epatante will stay the trip

                            She's never not looked like a 2 miler

                            her win at aintree was in a race that completely fell apart despite being run at a slow pace and turning into a sprint

                            Then she got outstayed at punchestown round a speed track

                            I don't even think she will place personally if maries rock does run

                            And I'd be doubtful she does even if Marie's rock isn't there

                            Comment


                            • I think a lot of this Marie’s rock debate is driven by ante post bets ….hardly surprising on a betting forum
                              Once you’ve won a mares hurdle it’s surely time to test yourself and try to win something more prestigious. People were obsessed with quevega stepping up in trip for a crack at the stayers hurdle for years. Honeysuckle went to the champion hurdle after. I don’t see the point in winning two mares hurdles when there’s a chance you could go on to bigger and better things.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kautostar View Post
                                I think a lot of this Marie’s rock debate is driven by ante post bets ….hardly surprising on a betting forum
                                Once you’ve won a mares hurdle it’s surely time to test yourself and try to win something more prestigious. People were obsessed with quevega stepping up in trip for a crack at the stayers hurdle for years. Honeysuckle went to the champion hurdle after. I don’t see the point in winning two mares hurdles when there’s a chance you could go on to bigger and better things.
                                Yep.
                                We can all look at different reasons for Marie’s stepping up, and ambition from connections to win a better race can certainly be one.
                                Trainer’s thoughts on getting her and Epatante to both win a race can also be a reason.
                                I hope( and believe) the reasoning is as simple as that.

                                Dont think there’s any Dick Francis stuff here anyway!!

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