2023 Stayers Hurdle

[Quevega]

*if* they can steal a lead Klassical Dream doesn’t look a bad bit of value in this

careful with bets though i'd say.
Not looking good on exchange for him.
can back in high 20's and nothing really to lay.
small amounts though so maybe nothing, but clearly doubts.

[opatcho]

Spent a lot of time analysing Teahupoo (in my dairy), and can see why/how he’s now second fav.

there just a niggling doubt with him around Cheltenham. I don’t think he needs soft/heavy, but I do think he’s a cruising type - but really one paced. He may get caught out down the hill and then struggling to make it up. I also think he’s better around a flatter track

He reminds me of Identify Theif in a way. If Teahupoo loses at the fez (outpaced down the hill) and goes to Aintree - I’ll be all over him

[charlie]

Yeah, I said this was pretty much the case in the post you replied to For me you either back him off the back of the Hattons Grace win or don't bother, so fair enough if that is why you or anyone else got involved, but it was very much a typical over reaction, IMO, to todays performance, not just on here, but in general.

Honestly, what would today really prove? That he could beat some absolute out of form old timers over 3m. It's nothing form. Yes, he technically has raced over 3m now, but how much of a 'race' was it, like really. There's little proof he can stay the 3m test of the Stayers, and he's been claimed as the Stayers Hurdle winner already on certain platforms.

There's just a massive contrast from winning a Stayers Hurdle and a Galmoy Hurdle, absolutely massive, and that's based on Flooring Porter not turning up, it's even more of a test if he does.

In isolation, winning easily over 3m today vs that opposition is not enough to be a player in the stayers, but IMO it's a mistake for the believers or disbelievers to take todays form literally. Today was one piece of a bigger puzzle. He's the right age, second season hurdler, jumps really well and claimed the scalp of Honeysuckle & KD running to an RPR of 168. Thats a good enough starting point and as you say, enough to back him of the back of the HG. He's now won over 3m easily and when that forms part of the bigger picture, he starts to look very much like a key player IMO.

[ComplyOrDie]

In isolation, winning easily over 3m today vs that opposition is not enough to be a player in the stayers, but IMO it's a mistake for the believers or disbelievers to take todays form literally. Today was one piece of a bigger puzzle. He's the right age, second season hurdler, jumps really well and claimed the scalp of Honeysuckle & KD running to an RPR of 168. Thats a good enough starting point and as you say, enough to back him of the back of the HG. He's now won over 3m easily and when that forms part of the bigger picture, he starts to look very much like a key player IMO.

Oh, 100% regarding the Hattons Grace form, I've said as much already.

The reaction on platforms and his price reaction is what has dragged me in. I'm sure some were just fishing for a bite, and they got a whopper

Have Paddy Power paid out on him yet?

[AaronLad]

Oh, 100% regarding the Hattons Grace form, I've said as much already.

The reaction on platforms and his price reaction is what has dragged me in. I'm sure some were just fishing for a bite, and they got a whopper

Have Paddy Power paid out on him yet?

No, but some thought they had collected

[ComplyOrDie]

FWIW, and I know I've said times are not the holy grail but Daryl Carter rightly pointed out that the race run today was not a test of stamina, more a dawdle which turned into a sprint finish, which would have suited a horse who Gordon thought was Champion Hurdle material, at one point.

I mean, I'm not surprised by that, but thought it worth mentioning.

[Eggs]

….Gelino to win Sat & Stayers @ 66-1 with Hills appears popular.

[Brooksie]

Spent a lot of time analysing Teahupoo (in my dairy), and can see why/how he’s now second fav.

there just a niggling doubt with him around Cheltenham. I don’t think he needs soft/heavy, but I do think he’s a cruising type - but really one paced. He may get caught out down the hill and then struggling to make it up. I also think he’s better around a flatter track

He reminds me of Identify Theif in a way. If Teahupoo loses at the fez (outpaced down the hill) and goes to Aintree - I’ll be all over him

He won't be the slowest horse in the field, I'd probably lean towards saying he's one of the quickest, he just wasn't champion hurdle quick and unfortunately got found out on quicker ground. That sort of speed won't be needed here though.

Always had him down as the best juvenile out of his crop and he went quietly under the radar last term winning low key races at the expense of Quilixios. After his win to Darasso I really fancied him to upset Honeysuckle in last years Champion, it was a bit deflating when he went out like a light. But what had me more bemused was watching Darasso finish 7 lengths behind an eased down Honeysuckle at Punchestown with Teahupoo stone cold 25 lengths last. Someone did mention a couple of weeks back that he hadn't shown the same level of form in the Spring so that could be one argument made against him.

I can see him going off pretty short when you factor in what might miss the race, Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream. What does that leave you with... Home By the Lee a 2nd fav that's already been beat in this race, beat Ashdale Bob 2 1/2 lengths, a horse that was beat by Teahupoo over 30 lengths. Paisley Park is surely going to get left behind again at a crucial stage in the race. Saint Sam? Maybe he can improve, but he wouldn't even be first string if Klassical Dream is fit and still needs to prove himself over 3. Ashdale Bob? Already been battered by Teahupoo and I don't think facing him over 3 bridges that gap. Heading further down the list, Gelino Bello, maybe he could stake a claim this weekend? I just don't see where the threat is right now?

That being said win or lose after the Hatton's Grace Teahupoo owes me nothing, I could probably back him blindly for the rest of his career and that would still be the case. Not after timing honest

[AaronLad]

He won't be the slowest horse in the field, I'd probably lean towards saying he's one of the quickest, he just wasn't champion hurdle quick and unfortunately got found out on quicker ground. That sort of speed won't be needed here though.

Always had him down as the best juvenile out of his crop and he went quietly under the radar last term winning low key races at the expense of Quilixios. After his win to Darasso I really fancied him to upset Honeysuckle in last years Champion, it was a bit deflating when he went out like a light. But what had me more bemused was watching Darasso finish 7 lengths behind an eased down Honeysuckle at Punchestown with Teahupoo stone cold 25 lengths last. Someone did mention a couple of weeks back that he hadn't shown the same level of form in the Spring so that could be one argument made against him.

I can see him going off pretty short when you factor in what might miss the race, Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream. What does that leave you with... Home By the Lee a 2nd fav that's already been beat in this race, beat Ashdale Bob 2 1/2 lengths, a horse that was beat by Teahupoo over 30 lengths. Paisley Park is surely going to get left behind again at a crucial stage in the race. Saint Sam? Maybe he can improve, but he wouldn't even be first string if Klassical Dream is fit and still needs to prove himself over 3. Ashdale Bob? Already been battered by Teahupoo and I don't think facing him over 3 bridges that gap. Heading further down the list, Gelino Bello, maybe he could stake a claim this weekend? I just don't see where the threat is right now?

That being said win or lose after the Hatton's Grace Teahupoo owes me nothing, I could probably back him blindly for the rest of his career and that would still be the case. Not after timing honest

Fair play to you.
I remember you're very good post highlighting teahupoo being the value for the HG at the time.
A lovely position to be in, and very much deserved for taking the chance when many wouldn't have, including myself obviously.

[opatcho]

He was a noticeable juvenile, he was in the top of my list at the time

The question needs to be asked and, in part answered, what type of horse is he

Does he want soft / testing
Did he just need a trip
Did he just need to grown a little more
Does he need a certain track

I don’t think it’s any of these

I think he’s a high cruising, grade 1 horse.

He isn’t a Paisley Park or Home By Thre Lee where they will hit a flat spot/get outpaced, but will find loads when the going get tough. Proper proper stayer

He isn’t one of these middle trip horses with a turn of foot

I think he’s a quaility horse that has one pace. That’s why I think he does so well in ‘certain’ conditions. These conditions are likley to be when the pace is strong throughout - similar pace you’d find at places like Kempton/Fairyhouse

I’ve back teahupoo before today as I think he has a great chance in this weak and muddling renewal, but I can see him being at 100% down the hill and/or not finding much up the hill at the end of the race

Aintree will be the one, added to tracker and notebook

[somer1]

….Gelino to win Sat & Stayers @ 66-1 with Hills appears popular.

I cant find that bet!!!!

[opatcho]

Under specials - to win today (28/1)

[Magpie]

Specials, your odds to win 28/11.

[somer1]

Specials, your odds to win 28/11.

Cheers dude.

[Exar Essay]

Joined in. Couldn't resist. Don't like the form, not particularly a fan of the horse, but the price just makes immense sense. If he doesn't win Saturday, unlikely he's a contender. If he does, probably best to have in the book.