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2023 Stayers Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Brooksie View Post

    jumping was fine tbh, just not enough left in the tank to kick again after the last. still a player in a muddy divison.

    starting to like the idea of teahupoo being upped in trip.
    Agree I've been thinking of Teahupoo now in what looks like a very muddling division. I just can't warm to Home By The Lee, even with his last two runs.

    What about Honeysuckle? Could she move up in trip here instead to avoid CH and a better race than the Mares (which would be a downgrade for a reigning CH champion to run in)

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    • Cromwell had 1 winner in his last 45 runners, wouldn’t be writing off flooring Porter by any stretch tho the manner/circumstance of defeat leaves more cause for concern than last year.

      ashdale bob been a fair yardstick in these kinds of races for a while now and proximity of him would not have me rushing to take 6s on the winner but fair play to those on at big prices

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      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
        Flooring Porter worth backing now at 8-1 B365.
        Wonderful EW bet

        Comment


        • Taken some of the 12s on teahupoo

          Just watched the hattons grace back and his action didn’t seem any more rounded than klassical dreams to my very untrained eye

          ​​​​​​​he's already 163, he improves for 3 miles he could be the best of these

          ​​​​​​​Worth the ground risk at 12s imo


          Comment


          • Highlights just how good a ride he got at the fez, wasn't miles ahead of his rivals going into last year and a fresh KD and a seemingly improved horse in HBTL will arguably be a tougher ask but agree with a few in that be a surprise if 3 finish ahead of him on the day and one to potentially add in e/w doubles etc.

            Comment


            • Klassical Dream's to lose imo, coming in fresh he'll be very tough to beat

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              • If Marie's Rock wins on New Years Day she will go right towards to top of the market for this surely

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                • [QUOTE=ComplyOrDie;n392432]Would love to see Home By The Lee put up another good performance tomorrow, and prove it was no fluke last time.[/

                  Was another great performance I thought.
                  Has to be a big player now.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Winging The Last View Post
                    If Marie's Rock wins on New Years Day she will go right towards to top of the market for this surely
                    Agree, but will they go for this?
                    I think she’s proper genuine and no worries about staying imo.

                    Comment


                    • I see 365 are being despicable again this year. Greying out cash out on Klassical Dream and still in the betting.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Winging The Last View Post
                        If Marie's Rock wins on New Years Day she will go right towards to top of the market for this surely
                        Think she'd be more likely to go up to 3 miles at Aintree or punchestown

                        But if epatante and honeysuckle run in the mares you could argue it might be easier to win this than that getting 7lb in what looks a crap division atm

                        Comment


                        • Tell you what, this race is a interesting mess

                          Flooring Porter has been properly found out in terms of 'how to get him beat', saw that at best at Aintree when SDB took it up when Flooring want to get his breather. Same happened today... Home By The Lee took it up as Flooring Porter was going to take a breather and raced on.

                          That stayers race in March is going to be, I feel, one of the most tactical races of the week.
                          Flooring is going to want to take his early lead as usual, 1-2 horses will keep him honest and take him on as soon as he tries to slow it down. Home By The Lee will be one of them to do this, why not, same tactics as today.... but its not as though Home By The Lee is a horse you can ignore now. Flooring starts to slow it down, Home By The Lee moves forward to prevent this, other jockeys are like "thats a decent horse, cant let that go on"... and they start racing way too far out, cutting each other before they've even hit the bottom of the hill.

                          I think something this could be a interest race to leave some in-play bets on, particularly on those from off the pace, proper proper stayers

                          Just some random thoughts...

                          - Maybe worth putting on a in-play bet on Paisley Park, to try and catch some double figures as he'll come off the bridle but this time, those in front could be coming back to him much quicker if the pace is stupidly strong early on.
                          - Meet and Greet ran a good race, paid to be at the front in this one, made up ground late on which was pleasing to see (helps confirms he's a stayer). Only 6, and has low mileage (7 hurdles). He was the stand out for me today, of those who remain a big price - 33/1. Rated 138 last season as a novice
                          - Home By The Lee is my Edwardstone this year.... I just cant come to back him.... could be a huge mistake... will let the dust settle and come back to him with a clear / unbiased head


                          What a race...!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by somer1 View Post
                            I see 365 are being despicable again this year. Greying out cash out on Klassical Dream and still in the betting.
                            They held 95% of my antepost bets before they started to get heavy handed with the Greying out
                            Its getting ridiculous over there.... then again, I think we all enjoyed and overused their delayed cash out 1-2 years back lol those were the days

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by opatcho View Post

                              They held 95% of my antepost bets before they started to get heavy handed with the Greying out
                              Its getting ridiculous over there.... then again, I think we all enjoyed and overused their delayed cash out 1-2 years back lol those were the days
                              Yeah golden run for a couple of years, the days of darting with a view to profit/stake back on anything are gone. Appreciate that's not what Somer has done but it's certainly making Antepost less flexible like it was prior.

                              "Flooring Porter was edged out by Meet And Greet for third, with Mullins banned for five days and forfeiting his riding fee after the stewards judged he had not obtained the best possible placing." Interesting to note banned and fined today for what was prob 1l at best but to the rules a potential place as should of been 3rd in fairness at worst.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by opatcho View Post
                                Tell you what, this race is a interesting mess

                                Flooring Porter has been properly found out in terms of 'how to get him beat', saw that at best at Aintree when SDB took it up when Flooring want to get his breather. Same happened today... Home By The Lee took it up as Flooring Porter was going to take a breather and raced on.

                                That stayers race in March is going to be, I feel, one of the most tactical races of the week.
                                Flooring is going to want to take his early lead as usual, 1-2 horses will keep him honest and take him on as soon as he tries to slow it down. Home By The Lee will be one of them to do this, why not, same tactics as today.... but its not as though Home By The Lee is a horse you can ignore now. Flooring starts to slow it down, Home By The Lee moves forward to prevent this, other jockeys are like "thats a decent horse, cant let that go on"... and they start racing way too far out, cutting each other before they've even hit the bottom of the hill.

                                I think something this could be a interest race to leave some in-play bets on, particularly on those from off the pace, proper proper stayers

                                Just some random thoughts...

                                - Maybe worth putting on a in-play bet on Paisley Park, to try and catch some double figures as he'll come off the bridle but this time, those in front could be coming back to him much quicker if the pace is stupidly strong early on.
                                - Meet and Greet ran a good race, paid to be at the front in this one, made up ground late on which was pleasing to see (helps confirms he's a stayer). Only 6, and has low mileage (7 hurdles). He was the stand out for me today, of those who remain a big price - 33/1. Rated 138 last season as a novice
                                - Home By The Lee is my Edwardstone this year.... I just cant come to back him.... could be a huge mistake... will let the dust settle and come back to him with a clear / unbiased head


                                What a race...!
                                The downhill section is the key though. (check out Paisley Park and Home BY the Lee going downhill last season, they just cannot go with them and then stay on best up the hill)

                                Flooring Porter races like a 2 miler down the hill and can hold the stayers off sufficiently and still have the stamina to last, because he basically takes a breather as he goes down hill.
                                The trick for the real stayers is not to get too far behind going down the hill. They won't be able to get upsides.

                                They'll have to hope he can't last it out like he has the last 2 runnings.

                                And Chemical Cromwell will be feeding different grass over here.

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