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i couldn't disagree with you there
but he was given a bha performance rating of 147 for his triumph hurdle 3rd.
a rating around that figure could also be a possibility.
i think personally he wins the red mills at gowran and gets supplemented for the ryanair.
Agree that's likely
The prize money on Saturday is €37,500
He wins they'll supplement especially if shiskin loses
Though I doubt shiskin will even run unless they put loads of water on the track
I really dont think these big owners paying hundreds of thousands for their horses are too worried about any supp fees. Donnelly had paid a huge sum for Brandy love. These big owners want winners at Chelt.
If Willie says Haut has a decent chance in Allahos absence i doubt any supp fee will be a factor.
The 7/1 special for Shishkin to win Ascot + Ryanair is one of those I’m struggling to convince myself to back but I’ll be gutted if I don’t and he bolts up. Is it worth the risk?
Elliott said (Racing Post): "Nothing changes with Conflated. I know Allaho is out of the Ryanair now but Conflated is going for the Gold Cup. He deserves to take his chance in it after what he did at Leopardstown over Christmas.
"He's an Irish Gold Cup winner as well. He's a very, very good horse on his day and I can see him running a big race in the big one at Cheltenham. That's where he will be going."
Elliott still has a big contender in the Ryanair in the shape of Fury Road, who gave Galopin Des Champs a scare in the Irish Gold Cup last time out. He is 9-2 with Paddy Power and no bigger than 11-2 anywhere.
Elliott said: "Fury Road runs in the Ryanair and I think he's got a great chance. He's a proper Grade 1 horse with really solid form and the race should suit him. He wasn't beaten by far in the Albert Bartlett a few years ago and he'll head back to Cheltenham with really solid claims.
"I was delighted with his run at Leopardstown and he's put together three really good runs back-to-back now."
Elliott said (Racing Post): "Nothing changes with Conflated. I know Allaho is out of the Ryanair now but Conflated is going for the Gold Cup. He deserves to take his chance in it after what he did at Leopardstown over Christmas.
"He's an Irish Gold Cup winner as well. He's a very, very good horse on his day and I can see him running a big race in the big one at Cheltenham. That's where he will be going."
Elliott still has a big contender in the Ryanair in the shape of Fury Road, who gave Galopin Des Champs a scare in the Irish Gold Cup last time out. He is 9-2 with Paddy Power and no bigger than 11-2 anywhere.
Elliott said: "Fury Road runs in the Ryanair and I think he's got a great chance. He's a proper Grade 1 horse with really solid form and the race should suit him. He wasn't beaten by far in the Albert Bartlett a few years ago and he'll head back to Cheltenham with really solid claims.
"I was delighted with his run at Leopardstown and he's put together three really good runs back-to-back now."
The 7/1 special for Shishkin to win Ascot + Ryanair is one of those I’m struggling to convince myself to back but I’ll be gutted if I don’t and he bolts up. Is it worth the risk?
In this situation I always think about which would hurt most - having the bet or not having it. Maybe not the best advice in pure profit terms but it could be that you're comfortable covering it to smaller stakes as a saver rather than a full bet? Or the full bet is better than how frustrated you'll feel if he bolts up?
The 7/1 special for Shishkin to win Ascot + Ryanair is one of those I’m struggling to convince myself to back but I’ll be gutted if I don’t and he bolts up. Is it worth the risk?
I'd be half expecting nicky to pull him out due to ground consitions
He's always looked like he wanted going up in trip
Got outpaced in the Supreme, got outpaced by energumene before staying on
His speed never got tested as a novice chaser as he never beat anything top class
But the tingle creek was a sign that he was gone at the game not that he's got much slower for me
Yeah, I don't dispute that he may get further. And agree with the tingle creek run.
Emulating the tingle creek run over 2m 4f will simply mean an even bigger defeat.
At grade 1 level, there is very little difference in speed between 2m and 2m 4f.
So if horses are running away from you near the finish over 2 miles then the same will happen over further.
He's always looked like he wanted going up in trip
Got outpaced in the Supreme, got outpaced by energumene before staying on
His speed never got tested as a novice chaser as he never beat anything top class
But the tingle creek was a sign that he was gone at the game not that he's got much slower for me
He looked like he was mentally affected by the Clarence House to me.
He did not look keen to even start his next race in the QM, and I never bought this soft ground excuse for the poor run, given his previous form on soft. He just looked like a horse that’s not enjoying himself, and thought similar at Sandown.
I hope I’m wrong, nothing would please me more, but I fear you are right, mentally he’s just not wanting it anymore.
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