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You would actually make a loss if finishing 4th! The $19875 4th place prize money would be reduced to $16762 after taking out Trainer, Jockey, Stable Staff deductions. Then subtract another ?2000 plus to cover transportation, immigration and other paperwork (easily ?800 each) and grooms fees for 2-3 days (minimum). You would be down at least ?1000 if finishing 4th - it's a tough call if you do the financial evaluation. But, then again, what owner actually does that?
The chance of a festival winner, and the figures we're talking... for Gold Cup winning connections (and seeing her on the screen for the first time ever at the DRF) .... I don't think making a small net loss is going to matter....
You'd have to be bonkers to be an owner though, I agree.... never met an owner that was sane
Yeah, I don't dispute that he may get further. And agree with the tingle creek run.
Emulating the tingle creek run over 2m 4f will simply mean an even bigger defeat. At grade 1 level, there is very little difference in speed between 2m and 2m 4f.
So if horses are running away from you near the finish over 2 miles then the same will happen over further.
When you first made this point / debate .... whenever it was, I loved it. (years back probably) ..... now a bit of devils advocate and off topic a bit, but.....
I feel like Willie and Ruby have said differently recently. It'd actually be a good question to ask Ruby if anyone gets through on Road To Cheltenham wouldn't it?
At 3m, clear examples of Willie saying going a slower pace would help Sir G, and I'll take that as a given....
Do we 'know' though, the difference between 2 and 2'4, is more than 2'4 to 3?
His task is made slightly easier without Allaho, but you've named 5 horses that would smash GL into next week and some (Blue Lord, Fury Road, Fakir, Envoi Allen and HEC). He'll be better over further, his jumping just wont hold up going the speed they go in the Ryanair, IMO of course.
His task is made slightly easier without Allaho, but you've named 5 horses that would smash GL into next week and some (Blue Lord, Fury Road, Fakir, Envoi Allen and HEC). He'll be better over further, his jumping just wont hold up going the speed they go in the Ryanair, IMO of course.
Even though I've backed them all NRNB, I expect at least 2 of them won't run, and there are doubts about them all.
I agree on their best going day all would beat him.
I Don't agree on the jumping though as the new course in the ryanair will mean there are less fences and horses to deal with, and also stamina comes into play more often than not.
The Ultima would be a little worse an option, tighter course, 2 more fences, his weight, and they tend to go a good gallop in that too.
FWIW, I don't think we'll see him at Cheltenham as I think the trainer has his eyes on a lesser graded race first, although pricewise often talks to trainers before putting selections up so he may have been given some indication even though it might not be definite, or he may not have bothered on this occasion.
When you first made this point / debate .... whenever it was, I loved it. (years back probably) ..... now a bit of devils advocate and off topic a bit, but.....
I feel like Willie and Ruby have said differently recently. It'd actually be a good question to ask Ruby if anyone gets through on Road To Cheltenham wouldn't it?
At 3m, clear examples of Willie saying going a slower pace would help Sir G, and I'll take that as a given....
Do we 'know' though, the difference between 2 and 2'4, is more than 2'4 to 3?
I think I did the miles an hour thing.
Can't remember exactly, but I know it was when people were doubting Apple's Jade having the speed for 2 miles, and then Honeysuckle
It obviously depends on the race itself and how quick and efficiently they run on the day, but I found evidence that some 3 mile races at grade 1 level were run almost as fast as some 2 mile races at grade 1 level in MPH.
But it averaged out around 1-2mph difference between each distance.
On the same course and ground etc, you'd expect it to be around 34mph over 2 mile, and nearer 30mph over 3 mile. obviously around 32mph in between. Hurdles that is, and this will vary from course to course. And be Slightly slower for fences on average.
But individual races clearly fluctuate and some go faster than others, during the race and overall.
So it's not wrong to say they go slower, just that IMO there is not always much in it. Is going at 30mph or 32mph going to make that much difference to aid a horses jumping ?
I'd say it would be more noticeable comparing an arkle to and RSA, but less so for the intermediate, for obvious reasons.
Using Sir Gerhard as an example.
The whole "going further will help jumping" just doesn't stack up really IMO, as it means more fences to jump - and at grade 1 level you'll be going faster than in a beginners chase anyway.
So it makes some sense but no sense at the same time. He'll run well if he jumps well and is in the same form as previous festivals, and I agree on his first try over fences the arkle would look chancy for him as he didn't look a natural.
It's more about class/ability and then running efficiency anyway.
That was my original point.
Janidil and Haut En Couleurs both declared for the Red Mills Chase (2M4F) on Sat at Gowran. Capodanno, Battleoverdoyen and Darasso complete the field of 5
Note - winner gets 22,500 Euro, which should it be HEC, would be more than enough to cover the fee to supplement him for the Ryanair. Perhaps one for the WTAF, but would also depend on Shishkins performance (8 mins later) Saturday too. Red Mills S'chase hasn't exactly been a nursery for Cheltenham winners going off past winners
Janidil and Haut En Couleurs both declared for the Red Mills Chase (2M4F) on Sat at Gowran. Capodanno, Battleoverdoyen and Darasso complete the field of 5
Note - winner gets 22,500 Euro, which should it be HEC, would be more than enough to cover the fee to supplement him for the Ryanair. Perhaps one for the WTAF, but would also depend on Shishkins performance (8 mins later) Saturday too. Red Mills S'chase hasn't exactly been a nursery for Cheltenham winners going off past winners
“He’d be carrying a fair bit of weight in a hcap” what as opposed to carrying 11st 10 in G1’s. They do chat some shitte these trainers, worry about your own horse not the others.
“He’d be carrying a fair bit of weight in a hcap” what as opposed to carrying 11st 10 in G1’s. They do chat some shitte these trainers, worry about your own horse not the others.
Exactly. The article was about the Nationa being the targetl anyway which obv screams send him up in trip. I'll be amazed if they run here.
Two massive Ryanair 'trials' tomorrow and this thread is miles back. Shock
Fakir D'oudaries vs Shishkin
Haut En Couleurs vs Janidil
Donnolly double?
JP double?
Anyone know what to do?
Any strong thoughts or betting angles? I think I'm going to skip this one tonight and come back with fresh eyes in the morning.... I like all 4 of them - or dislike them all equally
Two massive Ryanair 'trials' tomorrow and this thread is miles back. Shock
Fakir D'oudaries vs Shishkin
Haut En Couleurs vs Janidil
Donnolly double?
JP double?
Anyone know what to do?
Any strong thoughts or betting angles? I think I'm going to skip this one tonight and come back with fresh eyes in the morning.... I like all 4 of them - or dislike them all equally
It's hard to be overly bullish about any of them
Fakir didn't travel well at all last time but was giving haut en coulers 9lb and has won 4 grade 1s over mid trips.
Shiskin is the class act but looks a shadow of himself, wouldn't back him with counterfeit at this stage
Haut en coulers has fallen twice and generally flattered to deceive over fences. Last time was promising but can you rely on him to repeat that in march?
janidil has a long lay off and doesn't exactly win very often
Pic dorhy won easily last time but that was a terrible race for a grade 2 and he's prone to a clanger
Fakir probably the solid one but he's 3/1 which doesnt scream value. He's not even certain to run and has been to the well lots of times.
I know he's had a long break and they reckon he'll come on for the run (as they always say) but Janadil's record off the back of a break is actually really good. More or less the only time he actually does his winning (appreciate that's a bit of a problem for the below)
Wins today though and he may scare off HEC from being supplemented from an already weak looking Ryanair. And maybe a decent win would convince JP to stick with the plan to skip Cheltenham with Fakir as well...
50/1 to win today and the Ryanair. He's 10/3 currently today, so anything under 12s and it looks a decent price. A win today and I'd be expecting him to go single figures for the Ryanair to be honest.
The problem is it all might change 5 minutes later with the winner of the Ascot chase, but I'm looking passed that...
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). None of us are horse whisperers. I’m not even convinced the horse whisperer is a horse whisperer.
(appreciate that's a bit of a problem for the below)
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