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The differences between his RPR on his first run of the season and his last run of the season for the four seasons he's been racing. I'm no expert on the subject but seems a big variance.
He's not going to be revved up to the max for his first run of the season, but that doesn't detract from the fact he's only ever had ONE really bad run first time out (which was my point), and the fact we are comparing RPR's from debut run to last run tells me it's a debate that isn't there.
Show me a really poor run first time out, with the exception of the one I've mentioned?
I think if he runs first time up then he'll probably get more takers, both in opponents and layers.
I think the NRNB prices are a clue, and they won't have taken as much on him antepost as previous years I'd imagine.
I doubt he'd go off as short as Lobos suggests as he's a year older with no prep run.
Although Mullins can certainly do this successfully - not all horses are the same.
However, it could also be a really wank small field if the other trainers can't be arsed, and the bookies could have had a really shitty Tuesday and Wednesday, so you never know. One of Lobos's wild guesses could be proved right
He's not going to be revved up to the max for his first run of the season, but that doesn't detract from the fact he's only ever had ONE really bad run first time out (which was my point), and the fact we are comparing RPR's from debut run to last run tells me it's a debate that isn't there.
Show me a really poor run first time out, with the exception of the one I've mentioned?
Why does it need to be really bad? Is Easy Game going to win a Ryanair? That's not a great run.
As an example I looked at Janadil (as he was runner up in the Ryanair so the first horse for comparison) who achieved an identical RPR first time up as he did in the Ryanair...
Why does it need to be really bad? Is Easy Game going to win a Ryanair? That's not a great run.
As an example I looked at Janadil (as he was runner up in the Ryanair so the first horse for comparison) who achieved an identical RPR first time up as he did in the Ryanair...
The same Easy Game who had already had a pipe opener over hurdles against Honeysuckle, that then went on to finish 1/2 length away from winning the G1 Flogas the race after? Was it really not a great run.
The whole thing is an absolute myth, IMO. I'm not sure who made it up or who decided to put it out there, but he's not been poor first time out, bar one run, and in fairness his follow up run that season was also poor, so it wasn't just the first time out run that year, yet he still went on to win the Ryanair!
So just to clarify your position. You have no preference for him coming into the Ryanair after being off course for 11 months or coming into the Ryanair on the back of winning a G1 and G2 earlier in the season?
As for it being a 'myth' I'm not sure it is, unless I've missed it? Not read anyone saying Allaho comes on for the run so won't win the Ryanair or whatever. Think it's just a given that most horses do, and I was just highlighting it as a reason his price should be bigger... Think I've missed it being a big story like.
Last edited by Benjy23; 23 January 2023, 11:56 AM.
Thing is with Allaho,they're not bringing him here fresh by choice,it's been forced upon them by the injury the horse is carrying,the difference between chosing this path & having it as the only option available are quite vast
If it was a choice I'd be ok with people wanting this horse onside,as it isn't and it comes down to hoping they get him straight enough to run first time out at the festival against race fit opposition I couldn't have him.
I fully accept at the trip around Cheltenham he is a class apart from the usual Ryanair types but I couldn't back a horse fto off the back of an injury in a G! let alone one where everything else has been primed for the day,he can be a stone better than the rest but will he be running anywhere near his best given the prep,it's a hard pass for me even more so when he'll likely go off odds on on the day.
So just to clarify your position. You have no preference for him coming into the Ryanair after being off course for 11 months or coming into the Ryanair on the back of winning a G1 and G2 earlier in the season?
Correct. Given the likely depth of the race I think Allaho could be 90% fit and win it.
As for it being a 'myth' I'm not sure it is, unless I've missed it? Not read anyone saying Allaho comes on for the run so won't win the Ryanair or whatever. Think it's just a given that most horses do, and I was just highlighting it as a reason his price should be bigger... Think I've missed it being a big story like.
Been said many times in pre-season stable tours about Allaho being a 'stuffy' type and needing the run, yet he's only run poorly once first time out but that one run is what it seems many have remembered and held on to.
I think it was last season, I'd have to go back and check, a few were saying they'd wait for him to run his seasonal debut then back them, expecting him to lose, then he ended up dotting up and the price was even worse.
I get the price thing, but should it really be bigger, given the way he's smashed up this race the last twice, if anything the fact we won't see him could be a blessing in disguise that he could go off not too short, and in the words of Willie, GSI. If he ran and won prior to the festival he'd be a Constitution Hill price, basically unbackable.
Correct. Given the likely depth of the race I think Allaho could be 90% fit and win it.
Been said many times in pre-season stable tours about Allaho being a 'stuffy' type and needing the run, yet he's only run poorly once first time out but that one run is what it seems many have remembered and held on to.
I think it was last season, I'd have to go back and check, a few were saying they'd wait for him to run his seasonal debut then back them, expecting him to lose, then he ended up dotting up and the price was even worse.
I get the price thing, but should it really be bigger, given the way he's smashed up this race the last twice, if anything the fact we won't see him could be a blessing in disguise that he could go off not too short, and in the words of Willie, GSI. If he ran and won prior to the festival he'd be a Constitution Hill price, basically unbackable.
Fair enough. Missed the stable tour comments but I only tend to scan them for those I don't know much about to be honest, rather than those with seemingly obvious targets. Maybe I shouldn't!
Aye, it's all about price to be honest. I like to pretend I'm shrewd enough for everything to have a price to back and a price to lay but really I back my losers at all sorts of odds!
I just feel there's more questions over him than in previous seasons, despite having won the last two runnings. And I'm with you that 90% of his best would win this. I'm not sure on the science of what 90% fitness actually relates to in performance though... but I might have even lost myself here
My view is that Allaho needs the run most seasons, because that is how Willie design's it. He wants him to have some condition on him in November/December and to feel his way into things so that he's pinging in March/April.
This year he'll have him right there for the festival. He'll get his training into him in other ways. Whether any horse can be 100% fit first time out is a moot point, but he won't run like he did in the John Durkan 2 years ago, or even last year.
As an aside, Appreciate It ran 7lbs beneath his best last year in the Churdle. If Allaho were to do likewise, the only one who could get near him would be Blue Lord (if he were to run) IMO.
"then he ended up dotting up and the price was even worse."
that's not really true, he would've lost comfortably had good old asterion forlonge not hit the deck
He'd lost on seasonal reappearance every time before that
It looked like he was going to lose, yes, but this is Asterion Forlonge we're talking about, even if he had not hit the deck there is no guarantee he wouldn't have done something stupid thereafter In the end it was a 1 for Allaho in his form and his price disappeared because of it.
I'm not disputing that he had lost on his seasonal reappearances prior to that, but his seasonal debut form isn't poor, with the exception of the one run, and that was what I was disputing.
Hope so, I’ve a few bob on him.
Think he’s a player at a nice price if the ground ain’t soft.
I'm a bit surprised that anyone would think he's a player?
Was about to be walloped by Haut En Couleurs, and beaten by Fakir D'Oudaries and whilst the mistake at the last didn't help - Fakir D'Oudaries isn't up to winning a Ryanair anyway
.... then looking back through his other form I can't see anything that'd get me even remotely interested..... a handicap defeat (winner at the weights) with Ga Law isn't good enough either to be in the mix is it?
How much improvement would he need to find for the ground, and has he ever shown that before?
I'm a bit surprised that anyone would think he's a player?
Was about to be walloped by Haut En Couleurs, and beaten by Fakir D'Oudaries and whilst the mistake at the last didn't help - Fakir D'Oudaries isn't up to winning a Ryanair anyway
.... then looking back through his other form I can't see anything that'd get me even remotely interested..... a handicap defeat (winner at the weights) with Ga Law isn't good enough either to be in the mix is it?
How much improvement would he need to find for the ground, and has he ever shown that before?
No worries.
Improvement needed for sure, I think it’s possible he may find enough on suitable ground, and at the price willing to take the chance he does.
Allaho is worth taking on this year imo.
Race could be quite open.
Fakir is arguably the next best, or has been and FD weren’t going to be far from him had he jumped the last.
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