2023 Champion Hurdle

[archie]

2017 - Yeah probably agree with that year at the time, but definitely not a vintage crop?

Produced a vintage crop of chasers!

[Kevloaf]

Produced a vintage crop of chasers!

Haha, absolutely did ... was very much trying to be in the mindset before each novice hurdle season..... it's actually easier than I thought it'd be.

I can't make it tomorrow, are you going?

[Kevloaf]

Realistically, should Honeysuckle win the Hattons' and Irish Champion again, his price should hold (ish).
As he's unlikely to beat anything as good as Epatante before March in the xmas hurdle.

I'm not certain it will to be honest, but you'd think they'd be able to go 1/2 NRNB vs an unbeaten mare and 2 time champion.
They really ought to go bigger if she remains unbeaten and looks at or near her best.
But the times and ratings he's earnt will scare the bookies I think.

edit, the point I'm making is I'd take the 1/2 NRNB and double it up with many other bets. I think (at this stage) (if it was offered)

Yeah, I think a lot will depend on Honeysuckle's performances... as (rightly so) whilst 2nd fav, the price Honeysuckle is, you'll be able to call her a dual, unbeaten Champion Hurdler... and things like "is that the value" will be on every single preview evening.


FWIW at 1/2 NRNB I think I'd start getting stuck in now.... I believe the hype.

[Magpie]

I took the 8/1 special on Honey to win the Punchestown & Irish and chelt champ hurdle and backed the WH special at evens on CH. What could possibly go wrong?

[Eggs]

….posting this in here, PP offer;

C Hill to win CH & FV a/r @ 5/2.

[riccirich]

Thing is he would very likely have won the Champion Hurdle this year imo, from what I saw on the Tuesday in March.
He should still be improving as well being only 5, whereas his main opponent is certainly not improving at her age.
Its not often we get a horse come along this good visually and times backing that up, so for me it’s all about embracing and enjoying.
I can forget this race now as a punting event, and look forward to watching him , and concentrate on the other races for my cash.

That’s kinda my point, if your using times/sectionals to come to the conclusion that he would have beaten honeysuckle that’s fair enough, I just personally don’t put all my eggs in that basket, and if we focus on the form of the race we still haven’t really got a great handle on how good those in behind were.

i also wouldn’t be 100% sure he has stacks of improvement in him, when stood next to Jonbon he didn’t look very big at all, he looks very compact, and his temperament already seems impeccable, if he was a 2yo on the flat people would question whether he’d improve at 3.

i also have no idea why we can’t both enjoy the racing spectacle and hope he is a superstar, while also scrutinizing the horses performances to see if there is still value in the race, from the responses I’ve got people seem to think you can only do one or the other.

i think honeysuckle would be a good each way bet to nothing if she’s around 5/1, probably unlikely that three are going to be better than her in the space of a year, so from a betting POV I’d still have interest in the race too.

[riccirich]

From what I can see the thrust of your loquacious argument is that you want to see one more incredible performance before you can fully trust he is as good as the majority believe him to be. Like most things in life if you wait for certainty you will find that others have feasted while you are left with crumbs.I am choosing to enjoy the probability or possibility if you prefer. If I am wrong then so be it but I’d rather embrace every ounce of the possibility than protect myself from disappointment in case I am wrong.

What exactly would I be missing out on though that others will be feasting on? The 4/7 to win the champion hurdle?

And like I replied in a separate post we can hope that the horse is a superstar and appreciate his brilliance if that turns out to be the case, while also examining his performances for possible chinks to see if there is still value in the market on other runners, you don’t have to be in one camp or the other.

[Rooster Booster]

That’s kinda my point, if your using times/sectionals to come to the conclusion that he would have beaten honeysuckle that’s fair enough, I just personally don’t put all my eggs in that basket, and if we focus on the form of the race we still haven’t really got a great handle on how good those in behind were.

i also wouldn’t be 100% sure he has stacks of improvement in him, when stood next to Jonbon he didn’t look very big at all, he looks very compact, and his temperament already seems impeccable, if he was a 2yo on the flat people would question whether he’d improve at 3.

i also have no idea why we can’t both enjoy the racing spectacle and hope he is a superstar, while also scrutinizing the horses performances to see if there is still value in the race, from the responses I’ve got people seem to think you can only do one or the other.

i think honeysuckle would be a good each way bet to nothing if she’s around 5/1, probably unlikely that three are going to be better than her in the space of a year, so from a betting POV I’d still have interest in the race too.

I suspect it’s because the people you refer to and I assume I’m one of them believe strongly (rather than just hope) that he is a superstar. There are many gifted people on here that have evidenced many many times their ability to scrutinise and have concluded he is the real deal. I am not in that category but I no longer need to scrutinise. You have greater doubts so you should rightly scrutinise as should others that share your doubts.

[Carnage at Taunton]

That’s kinda my point, if your using times/sectionals to come to the conclusion that he would have beaten honeysuckle that’s fair enough, I just personally don’t put all my eggs in that basket, and if we focus on the form of the race we still haven’t really got a great handle on how good those in behind were.

i also wouldn’t be 100% sure he has stacks of improvement in him, when stood next to Jonbon he didn’t look very big at all, he looks very compact, and his temperament already seems impeccable, if he was a 2yo on the flat people would question whether he’d improve at 3.

i also have no idea why we can’t both enjoy the racing spectacle and hope he is a superstar, while also scrutinizing the horses performances to see if there is still value in the race, from the responses I’ve got people seem to think you can only do one or the other.

i think honeysuckle would be a good each way bet to nothing if she’s around 5/1, probably unlikely that three are going to be better than her in the space of a year, so from a betting POV I’d still have interest in the race too.

Yeah, must admit, when I saw them both together I was surprised to see how much bigger Jonbon was, so not a shock to see Jonbon chasing and Ch still hurdling.
I really hope that CH stays Hurdling and stays fit, he could well prove to all then exactly what some of us think now.
As re improvement with CH, I would be staggered if a 5 year old with only 4 runs could not improve a fair bit, absolutely staggered.

[riccirich]

I suspect it’s because the people you refer to and I assume I’m one of them believe strongly (rather than just hope) that he is a superstar. There are many gifted people on here that have evidenced many many times their ability to scrutinise and have concluded he is the real deal. I am not in that category but I no longer need to scrutinise. You have greater doubts so you should rightly scrutinise as should others that share your doubts.

That’s fair enough, I’m certainly not stating that he definitely will not be a superstar, if I had to make a judgement right now I would probably say that he will be, I simply wouldn’t hold that opinion as strongly as you or others do on the evidence we have at the moment.

i agree that there are many great judges on here and I respect their opinion greatly, but a lot of those judges also concluded envoi, bob olinger, samcro, simonsig and so on were the real deal but for one reason or another those horses came up short, that is not a swipe in any way, just an example that we all get it wrong including myself many times.

while I personally rate con hill higher than I ever rated any of those horses, and to be fair most of the other people on here probably do to, I’d still be open to the possibility that he might flatter to deceive, and see reasons why that could possibly happen, but that’s just my opinion, if you have no such doubts at all then by all means go with your gut

[riccirich]

Yeah, must admit, when I saw them both together I was surprised to see how much bigger Jonbon was, so not a shock to see Jonbon chasing and Ch still hurdling.
I really hope that CH stays Hurdling and stays fit, he could well prove to all then exactly what some of us think now.
As re improvement with CH, I would be staggered if a 5 year old with only 4 runs could not improve a fair bit, absolutely staggered.

It’s by no means a proven science, you obviously don’t need to be a massive horse to improve with age, but when he already seems the finished article at such a young age then they don’t always find stacks of improvement. You would of course expect him to improve again but many horses have put in their best performances as novice hurdlers, usually horses who already do everything right from the get go.

These are just things worth considering for people going in at such short odds, obviously people holding 33/1 slips aren’t going to give a toss that a horse who is now odds on isn’t very big, and they’re right, they’ve already done the hard part in getting the value.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It’s by no means a proven science, you obviously don’t need to be a massive horse to improve with age, but when he already seems the finished article at such a young age then they don’t always find stacks of improvement. You would of course expect him to improve again but many horses have put in their best performances as novice hurdlers, usually horses who already do everything right from the get go.

These are just things worth considering for people going in at such short odds, obviously people holding 33/1 slips aren’t going to give a toss that a horse who is now odds on isn’t very big, and they’re right, they’ve already done the hard part in getting the value.

Yep, absolutely no problem with looking at everything when contemplating a bet on a shortie, makes complete sense .
Personally he’s always been too short for me for a bet on the Champion Hurdle, so I’ve just got him in a multiple or two at odds against,which will enable me to watch with a bit of interest betting wise.
But really I just want to watch him, and hopefully be in awe once again.

[Lobos]

Yep, absolutely no problem with looking at everything when contemplating a bet on a shortie, makes complete sense .
Personally he’s always been too short for me for a bet on the Champion Hurdle, so I’ve just got him in a multiple or two at odds against,which will enable me to watch with a bit of interest betting wise.
But really I just want to watch him, and hopefully be in awe once again.

Carnage, when you get horses like him, if you are a true lover of the sport then that's the thing to do. Don't have a bet and then you can just watch him and the race unfold and thoroughly enjoy it. Betting on him or more importantly against him as you feel the price is too tight will only spoil it for you on the day.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Carnage, when you get horses like him, if you are a true lover of the sport then that's the thing to do. Don't have a bet and then you can just watch him and the race unfold and thoroughly enjoy it. Betting on him or more importantly against him as you feel the price is too tight will only spoil it for you on the day.

Absolutely, that’s the approach I always take with horses like him at short prices.
Being a horse lover gives me enough to be able to watch a race without a wager.

[Lobos]

Absolutely, that’s the approach I always take with horses like him at short prices.
Being a horse lover gives me enough to be able to watch a race without a wager.

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