2023 Champion Hurdle

[opatcho]

As much as I love Honeysuckle, I have always been concerned about top class mares and how quickly thinks appear to go south - quickly!!

She wasn’t up against much last season. CH looks a beast.
would be great to see both clash, with unbeaten records as they turn up at the CH

[Istabraq]

I looked at the prices for this as soon as they came out in March and haven't looked since.
Probably the worst value ante post market I've ever seen, bookies should be ashamed (but obviously they won't).
I think it was 365 who went 15/8 and 2/1 the top two with 6/1 bar, they had the 100% with the top five in the betting on a market that wouldn't settle for another 360 days and that would have dozens of other horses quoted at some point.
As for who wins, I've love to see Honeysuckle make it a hatrick but I'd also love to see Constitution Hill become a superstar, but as for having a bet bar State Man and Vauban in a couple of small multis I've got zero interest...

[ComplyOrDie]

I looked at the prices for this as soon as they came out in March and haven't looked since.
Probably the worst value ante post market I've ever seen, bookies should be ashamed (but obviously they won't).
I think it was 365 who went 15/8 and 2/1 the top two with 6/1 bar, they had the 100% with the top five in the betting on a market that wouldn't settle for another 360 days and that would have dozens of other horses quoted at some point.
As for who wins, I've love to see Honeysuckle make it a hatrick but I'd also love to see Constitution Hill become a superstar, but as for having a bet bar State Man and Vauban in a couple of small multis I've got zero interest...

Yeah, the 365 early prices were awful. It's a bit better now you can get Honeysuckle at 4/1. She's no doubt the value play, IMO, but I can't get away from the excitement of Constitution Hill, and what could be.

I made a stupid early play on Dinoblue, which I now regret, but ultimately I'll be dutching Constitution & Honeysuckle for now, in favour more so of Constitution.

[Bollinger]

I’m absolutely perplexed as to why anyone here is even mentioning the word retirement before the Champ Hurdle??

People questioning whether she’s the same mare as previous seasons - totally perplexing?

With 17 wins on the bounce, 4 out of 4 last season (all won with exceptional ease), and only being still just 8 years old, I can’t fathom why people are even contemplating she might not be setting gold standards this year?

I’d like to make a confession - I really DON’T want her to win a Champion Hurdle, because my financial investments sit very, very firmly with Constitution Hill.

I’ll reiterate this - my financial investment is with Constitution Hill, and if fit & well, I fully, fully expect him to be the Champion Hurdler at the festival next year. Possibly by a wide winning margin.

But to try to understand people’s thoughts that Honeysuckle might be retired this & that,Ann if she isn’t up to her best this & that…….what evidence has anyone seen last season, or in the last 6 months since she’s been grazing grass to even suggest this??

She dominated 4 group 1 races last season. She’s not turning 9 years old until Punchestown next April.

Yes, connections have told us she’ll be retired at the end of this forthcoming season, but I just find it incredulous that anyone believes she won’t hit her gold standards again before then.

Theres simply no evidence thus far to support this.

[ComplyOrDie]

I see the points you are making Bollinger but my question was hypothetical, say she doesn't hit them standards and suffers a genuine defeat beforehand, then what?

Knowing full well that retirement beckons after this season regardless, would they just pull up stumps and call it a day if she were to suffer that first defeat? It's not too hard to imagine, really.

Lets take absolutely nothing away from what she has achieved to date. We all know she's been an absolute superstar for connections, but she will be 9 next year, so automatically these questions are going to appear.

[FinalFurlong91]

I really can't see them retiring her after 1 defeat and not even try to win a 3rd champion hurdle

That would be a complete disservice to the horse

[Bollinger]

Why anyone believes Honeysuckle will be retired before Cheltenham (not including injury) is beyond me.

It categorically won’t happen. I’m unsure why people are even theorizing on this.

[Ice]

Why anyone believes Honeysuckle will be retired before Cheltenham (not including injury) is beyond me.

It categorically won’t happen. I’m unsure why people are even theorizing on this.

Honeysuckle is a superstar and she owes connections nothing, which is why if she massively underperformed in the run up to the festival i think they would retire her, obviously i hope she makes it there a1 and attempts to defend her crown. This could be a great renewal.

[Buckingham]

Why anyone believes Honeysuckle will be retired before Cheltenham (not including injury) is beyond me.

It categorically won’t happen. I’m unsure why people are even theorizing on this.

We deal in probabilities, not absolutes. There are always possibilities why horses don't turn up for an intended engagement, injury being the most obvious, sometimes the opposition (or lack of), sometimes new information about a young horse re trip etc... For Honeysuckle there are a couple of other points to consider over and above the usual for other horses. The first is that it has been announced that she will retire at the end of the year - for me this creates a bit of extra risk that if she has a relatively small injury that makes running at the Festival a bit of a doubt then they may be inclined to draw stumps, something that they wouldn't necessarily have done 2 years ago. The other factor is that she has been at the top of her class for virtually the whole of her career and if her form dips then this too may cause them to call it a day. What constitutes enough of a form dip is open to conjecture - my opinion is that a close defeat would see them carry on, a pulled up would be a huge concern whilst consecutive but creditable defeats might sit in the middle. As to why her form might dip, one might argue that her form dipped last season (her three RPRs were 4-6lb below her Festival and Punchestown victories of the year before) but often these things are not apparent. A lot of horses only have a certain mileage and the very top class races are often very hard on a horse (even when its not necessarily apparent at the time - as an aside I would have concerns about Allaho on this score as his running style is not conducive to "easy" races). In addition there's a school of thought (though i've seen no evidence either way) that mares are more likely to "sour" as their career progresses.

Its not categoric that she wont retire - there are possibilities that need to be considered and factored into her price. Personally, I think that she will get there but the probability of her not doing so (major injury aside) is not zero.

[Lobos]

Very well put Buckingham.

[Lobos]

4's gone again on Honey.

[Guinness Village]

Too good at 4/1. 7/2 still generous.

[Benjy23]

“He’s changed dramatically and is a big, big hunk of a horse now. This time last year we were trying to put weight on him, now we’re trying to get it off.”

Hendo quote on CH taken from Josh Stacey...

Not completely sure what to make of it.

It won't let me delete that massive picture at the start

[opatcho]

It’s Nicky, before we know it will be December waiting for Henderson “good, to soft, but not too soft, whilst definitely not too good, but maybe…”

Any updates from the yards are good, but like you said, not sure what this is telling us lol

this is the same horse that does jack all at home, so not surprised he’s got a bit of timber on him

probably 20lbs ahead of the UK hurdlers (he won’t run against Epatante) so a bit of weight coming into the season won’t be too much of a worry

[HesTheOne]

“He’s changed dramatically and is a big, big hunk of a horse now. This time last year we were trying to put weight on him, now we’re trying to get it off.”

Hendo quote on CH taken from Josh Stacey...

Not completely sure what to make of it.

It won't let me delete that massive picture at the start

I was clicking the blue head expecting to hear Nickys voice