2023 Champion Hurdle

[Odin]

riccirich just want to clarify a couple of things from my previous posts that probably didn't come across as I intended - and I'm in the right thread for it now!

First of all, no issue with us agreeing or agreeing to disagree on what we think of the horse but I don't have a penny on him other than a double with Frontal Assualt for NH Chase so I'm not looking from a betting perspective here - just from a pure "feeling".

I actually checked back to see if I'd put he was "the Frankel of NH racing", I did and that was wrong, it should have been "could be the Frankel of NH racing". Most of the other points I made, I stand by though. None of the horses you've mentioned gave me the same feeling as CH, similarly none of the other ones I mentioned, except Frankel. That's where my comparison comes from - the feeling he gives me and it's not hyperbole for me, it's a feeling. Anyone else is free to agree or disagree with it.

The comment about CH being unbeatable is slightly premature, but I meant if he wins the Xmas Hurdle doing cartwheels again (this didn't come across in the original post at all, which is completely my bad) it's not difficult to move towards the conclusion that he's streets ahead of anything else in the UK and depending on how well he wins, it could be extrapolated that he's ahead of the Irish horses. I don't think it's a coincidence that Sir Gerhard went to the Ballymore last year rather than the Supreme or that Vauban/SG don't appear to be going for the Champion Hurdle this year. I think Willie thinks he can't beat CH either and a part of me wouldn't be surprised if State Man swerves him... maybe for the Stayers (which I'd hate from a betting perspective!)

Anyway, the long and short of it is - if I was thinking of backing him, I'd try and find every hole I could like you, but I'm not. I don't need to back him at the odds he is now and win pennies. I'd rather just enjoy the feeling he gives me as the possible soon to be Frankel of NH racing (in my eyes anyway)

[riccirich]

riccirich just want to clarify a couple of things from my previous posts that probably didn't come across as I intended - and I'm in the right thread for it now!

First of all, no issue with us agreeing or agreeing to disagree on what we think of the horse but I don't have a penny on him other than a double with Frontal Assualt for NH Chase so I'm not looking from a betting perspective here - just from a pure "feeling".

I actually checked back to see if I'd put he was "the Frankel of NH racing", I did and that was wrong, it should have been "could be the Frankel of NH racing". Most of the other points I made, I stand by though. None of the horses you've mentioned gave me the same feeling as CH, similarly none of the other ones I mentioned, except Frankel. That's where my comparison comes from - the feeling he gives me and it's not hyperbole for me, it's a feeling. Anyone else is free to agree or disagree with it.

The comment about CH being unbeatable is slightly premature, but I meant if he wins the Xmas Hurdle doing cartwheels again (this didn't come across in the original post at all, which is completely my bad) it's not difficult to move towards the conclusion that he's streets ahead of anything else in the UK and depending on how well he wins, it could be extrapolated that he's ahead of the Irish horses. I don't think it's a coincidence that Sir Gerhard went to the Ballymore last year rather than the Supreme or that Vauban/SG don't appear to be going for the Champion Hurdle this year. I think Willie thinks he can't beat CH either and a part of me wouldn't be surprised if State Man swerves him... maybe for the Stayers (which I'd hate from a betting perspective!)

Anyway, the long and short of it is - if I was thinking of backing him, I'd try and find every hole I could like you, but I'm not. I don't need to back him at the odds he is now and win pennies. I'd rather just enjoy the feeling he gives me as the possible soon to be Frankel of NH racing (in my eyes anyway)

I wouldn’t go as far as it was “wrong” to refer to him as the frankel of nh, I mean it isn’t that big of a deal, if your excited about the horse and love watching him then there’s nothing wrong with that and your entitled to be, I’m certainly not sitting here in a rage over it

when it comes to the “feel” he gives I totally understand, I got the same feeling and think that he probably is very special, I just think that the claims that I am seeing from a lot of people about him being unbeatable etc are coming one or two runs too soon. I’m not going to directly compare con hill to goshen, the former has already achieved a lot more than the latter by thrashing Epatante, but goshen also gave me a great feel in the triumph, and if he made it over the last would have undoubtedly gotten a huge rpr and posted a great sectional that would have counted as evidence for some that he was special.

my thinking is we don’t know how good last years supreme was, Jonbon and dysart could still be the equivalent of blue lord and Ballyadam from the year before, so it’s his one run in open company where he thrashed Epatante that we are really hanging our hat on that he is a freak, I think he probably is but there are still a couple of questions before I’d be certain, has she trained on? Being the older horse did she need her first run back a lot more than he did? It’s enough to make me hold on until I see at least one more run from him.

i agree that the Christmas hurdle will probably make my mind up one way or the other, unlikely as it is I’d love to see Mullins or Elliott send something over to pick up easy place money and get a read on how good con hill is, something like Sharjah would be perfect, if he comes out and destroys Sharjah again then I’d probably accept it 100% that is the right price for the champ hurdle, obviously the more times he puts in such performances the likelihood that he is being flattered lessens significantly. I think he had no choice but to go ballymore with sir g as dysart was simply too keen for it, con hill could still have destroyed sir g of course but I’d be pretty sure Mullins wasn’t avoiding him. I also think vauban could easily go to the champ hurdle, if he takes on honeysuckle before the fez and beats her or runs her very close I doubt they’d shirk the challenge of going over. I’d be shocked if state man swerved as it just wouldn’t be very like Mullins to avoid one horse, especially if Epatante gets well beat again by something else before cheltenham, it’d be enough for them to question con hills form I’d say.

i think some of the holes I’ve picked in con hill are valid at this point, not holes that make me believe is not a very very good horse, far from it, but holes that lead me to believe he might possibly be getting slightly overrated, and if that is the case then it’s enough for me not to be interested in piling into him at current odds, I’m not all discounting that he could be the horse of a lifetime, I’m just not as sure about it at this exact time as everyone else seems to be

[Quevega]

ComplyOrDie
Love your Constitution Hill post

I've been waiting 40 years to see a hurdler that could take me back to the Champion Hurdle days of Night Nurse, Sea Pigeon and Monksfield - that made that race my favourite race, in the calendar.

Each Champion Hurdle winner is special to their owners, supporters and punters.

I've fingers crossed that Constitution Hill can add to that list of winners in March.

I've not seen a 2M Hurdler as good as him, in those 40 years.

I dont need to wait,
I dont need sectionals
I don't need any more proof

All 4 of his race have been special.

He's been the best Supreme Novice Hurdle winner in those 40 years, by some way.

That race proved to me that he was the best Id seen in 40 years.

We all have our own perceptions, and some will agree and disagree.

Some will want to wait.
Some will want to see longevity and some will just know now.

No-one is wrong to make assessments either way.

I've studied that race all my life.
I've got my own views on See You Then and Istabraq and Hardy Eustace and Buveur DAir etc.

I love them all.
They've won my favourite race, some multiple times.

This new fellah has taken me back to feeling like a young teenage boy again, revelling in that Monksfield, Sea Pigeon and Night Nurse 6 year era of dominating the race.

No other Champion Hurdle winner or 2M Hurdler has made me feel like that, about the race, since those days.

I thank him for it now.
I'm looking forward to the next race he runs in like the happy race-loving teenager I was back then.

Thank you Constitution Hill

I hope you get the chance to shine in March, in the race that captured my love for NH racing all those years ago.

He's a brilliant horse, but he can't read. So no need to thank him in writing, I'd suggest a pat or a polo mint.
And mentioning Hardy Eustace & Buvuer D'air without mentioning the Hurricane needs correcting.

He just needs to stay fit. fingers crossed.
And with a bit of luck Mr Henderson might just campaign him a bit more bravely than he's been doing with class animals in recent years.
Certainly shouldn't be ducking rivals that's for sure.

[Quevega]

I wouldn’t go as far as it was “wrong” to refer to him as the frankel of nh, I mean it isn’t that big of a deal, if your excited about the horse and love watching him then there’s nothing wrong with that and your entitled to be, I’m certainly not sitting here in a rage over it

when it comes to the “feel” he gives I totally understand, I got the same feeling and think that he probably is very special, I just think that the claims that I am seeing from a lot of people about him being unbeatable etc are coming one or two runs too soon. I’m not going to directly compare con hill to goshen, the former has already achieved a lot more than the latter by thrashing Epatante, but goshen also gave me a great feel in the triumph, and if he made it over the last would have undoubtedly gotten a huge rpr and posted a great sectional that would have counted as evidence for some that he was special.

my thinking is we don’t know how good last years supreme was, Jonbon and dysart could still be the equivalent of blue lord and Ballyadam from the year before, so it’s his one run in open company where he thrashed Epatante that we are really hanging our hat on that he is a freak, I think he probably is but there are still a couple of questions before I’d be certain, has she trained on? Being the older horse did she need her first run back a lot more than he did? It’s enough to make me hold on until I see at least one more run from him.

i agree that the Christmas hurdle will probably make my mind up one way or the other, unlikely as it is I’d love to see Mullins or Elliott send something over to pick up easy place money and get a read on how good con hill is, something like Sharjah would be perfect, if he comes out and destroys Sharjah again then I’d probably accept it 100% that is the right price for the champ hurdle, obviously the more times he puts in such performances the likelihood that he is being flattered lessens significantly. I think he had no choice but to go ballymore with sir g as dysart was simply too keen for it, con hill could still have destroyed sir g of course but I’d be pretty sure Mullins wasn’t avoiding him. I also think vauban could easily go to the champ hurdle, if he takes on honeysuckle before the fez and beats her or runs her very close I doubt they’d shirk the challenge of going over. I’d be shocked if state man swerved as it just wouldn’t be very like Mullins to avoid one horse, especially if Epatante gets well beat again by something else before cheltenham, it’d be enough for them to question con hills form I’d say.

i think some of the holes I’ve picked in con hill are valid at this point, not holes that make me believe is not a very very good horse, far from it, but holes that lead me to believe he might possibly be getting slightly overrated, and if that is the case then it’s enough for me not to be interested in piling into him at current odds, I’m not all discounting that he could be the horse of a lifetime, I’m just not as sure about it at this exact time as everyone else seems to be

I agree with where you're coming from - if it matters.

I think he may be the best we've ever seen, and thought so after the supreme.
I didn't think it looked too good to be true and the times backed it up (didn't someone say somewhere that Jonbon's time would have won most supremes)

But he needs to stay around and continue that level for at least a while to be classed as a legend, otherwise he's just going to be a "look at what you could have" type.

I still would not argue strongly against anyone suggesting he's the best of all time already though, but I think your arguments about the ground being perfect for times in his last 2 runs means that he's had an advantage over some legends from the past so far.

He's also (fingers crossed) likely to bump into one of, if not the best ever mare in March. And when he shafts her by 10 lengths then there'll be cocks exploding all over the stands and pubs around the country.

[That Horse]

And when he shafts her by 10 lengths then there'll be cocks exploding all over the stands and pubs around the country.

Bring your umbrellas and waterproofs for Tuesday boys, ground conditions will be soft and sticky

[Quevega]

riccirich just want to clarify a couple of things from my previous posts that probably didn't come across as I intended - and I'm in the right thread for it now!

First of all, no issue with us agreeing or agreeing to disagree on what we think of the horse but I don't have a penny on him other than a double with Frontal Assualt for NH Chase so I'm not looking from a betting perspective here - just from a pure "feeling".

I actually checked back to see if I'd put he was "the Frankel of NH racing", I did and that was wrong, it should have been "could be the Frankel of NH racing". Most of the other points I made, I stand by though. None of the horses you've mentioned gave me the same feeling as CH, similarly none of the other ones I mentioned, except Frankel. That's where my comparison comes from - the feeling he gives me and it's not hyperbole for me, it's a feeling. Anyone else is free to agree or disagree with it.

The comment about CH being unbeatable is slightly premature, but I meant if he wins the Xmas Hurdle doing cartwheels again (this didn't come across in the original post at all, which is completely my bad) it's not difficult to move towards the conclusion that he's streets ahead of anything else in the UK and depending on how well he wins, it could be extrapolated that he's ahead of the Irish horses. I don't think it's a coincidence that Sir Gerhard went to the Ballymore last year rather than the Supreme or that Vauban/SG don't appear to be going for the Champion Hurdle this year. I think Willie thinks he can't beat CH either and a part of me wouldn't be surprised if State Man swerves him... maybe for the Stayers (which I'd hate from a betting perspective!)

Anyway, the long and short of it is - if I was thinking of backing him, I'd try and find every hole I could like you, but I'm not. I don't need to back him at the odds he is now and win pennies. I'd rather just enjoy the feeling he gives me as the possible soon to be Frankel of NH racing (in my eyes anyway)

I've seen it mentioned by others.
But there is absolutely no way that Willie ran Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore becasue he though Constitution Hill was unbeatable.
Anyone who thinks so is caressing themselves.

Him avoiding him this season though is another matter and entirely possible as he's seen what we've seen.

Many thought CH looked great in his first 2 runs last year and the times backed it up (but not so much the form)

Not many were as convinced he'd win the supreme though, as the odds suggested. It looked very competitive between the first three in the market.
The ones that were, then good luck to them although I'd suggest that if their eyes are always so emphatically proven right then they should be rich beyond their wildest dreams.

Sometimes (more often than not) the ones you think look world beaters in maidens visually and on the clock - turn out not to be as good as this lad.

[Lobos]

I think Willie thought his best chance of winning the Supreme or the Ballymore was to send Sir G to the latter. Does that mean he was avoiding CH? Maybe. Put it this way, I don't think he believed he could beat CH with DD.

Think he'll do the same again with Vega this season i.e. go to the easier race to win with him.

[Winging The Last]

I think Willie thought his best chance of winning the Supreme or the Ballymore was to send Sir G to the latter. Does that mean he was avoiding CH? Maybe. Put it this way, I don't think he believed he could beat CH with DD.

Think he'll do the same again with Vega this season i.e. go to the easier race to win with him.

To me I think like Quevega. Sir Gerhard only went to the Ballymore because of Dysart Dynamo and not Constitution Hill. Pre Cheltenham DD had just bolted up at Punchestown, they believed he was great and a proper shot at the Supreme.

Willies Stable Tour just before Cheltenham proves this to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43xSVVS_hCg&t=635s

[Lobos]

There used the be a time when Willie sent his best Novice to the Supreme. That certainly wasn't the case this year.

[Winging The Last]

I think Willie thought his best chance of winning the Supreme or the Ballymore was to send Sir G to the latter. Does that mean he was avoiding CH? Maybe. Put it this way, I don't think he believed he could beat CH with DD.

Think he'll do the same again with Vega this season i.e. go to the easier race to win with him.

On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme

2022 - Dysart & Sir Gerhard on par
2021 - S - Appreciate It & B - Galliard Du Mesnil (Appreciate it better)
2020 - S - Asterion, Elixir & B - The Big Getaway (Asterion & Elixir were better)
2019 - S - Klassical Dream, Aramon & B - Easy Game (Klassical Dream better)
2018 - S - Sharjah, Getabird & B - Next Destination (Getabird was nearly favourite and ND was a stayer)
2017 - S - Melon, Cilaos Emery & B - Kemboy (Melon was seen as the best)
2016 - S - Min & B - Yorkhill (Min was seen as the best but close. Similar situation to 2022)
2015 - S - Douvan & B - Nichols Canyon (Douvan seen as the best at that time)
2014 - S - Vautour & B - Faugheen (Both great)
2013 - S Champagne Fever & Pnt Alexandre (Champagne was seen as better)


To me unless Willie has a better horse or one on par with Facile that look like a faster horse, Facile will go the supreme as Willie prefers that race

[Quevega]

There used the be a time when Willie sent his best Novice to the Supreme. That certainly wasn't the case this year.

It's hindsight bullshit to suggest Sir G went Ballymore because of Constitution.
Simple as that.

[Lobos]

It's hindsight bullshit to suggest Sir G went Ballymore because of Constitution.
Simple as that.

Think he thought he could only win one of the races and that was with Sir G in the Ballymore. Simple as that.

[Quevega]

On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme

2022 - Dysart & Sir Gerhard on par
2021 - S - Appreciate It & B - Galliard Du Mesnil (Appreciate it better)
2020 - S - Asterion, Elixir & B - The Big Getaway (Asterion & Elixir were better)
2019 - S - Klassical Dream, Aramon & B - Easy Game (Klassical Dream better)
2018 - S - Sharjah, Getabird & B - Next Destination (Getabird was nearly favourite and ND was a stayer)
2017 - S - Melon, Cilaos Emery & B - Kemboy (Melon was seen as the best)
2016 - S - Min & B - Yorkhill (Min was seen as the best but close. Similar situation to 2022)
2015 - S - Douvan & B - Nichols Canyon (Douvan seen as the best at that time)
2014 - S - Vautour & B - Faugheen (Both great)
2013 - S Champagne Fever & Pnt Alexandre (Champagne was seen as better)


To me unless Willie has a better horse or one on par with Facile that look like a faster horse, Facile will go the supreme as Willie prefers that race

He splits them for a variety of reasons.
Winnable race, jockey's, opposition, ground, run style, experience.
Weighs all that up and other factors then runs them in the race he thinks best at that time.

Some of those seen as better (at the time) comments are questionable. Pont Alexandre was the second coming,
There's often little to choose between Willie's top horses and only after the Spring fetivals does it become clearer.
He'll not always be sure or right himself, on who's best before they run.

[Quevega]

Think he thought he could only win one of the races and that was with Sir G in the Ballymore. Simple as that.

Think he thought he could win both.

[robith]

I'll be swerving the Tuesday I reckon - I can't imagine being in a crowd of 60k lads with no socks on going "yeah I had 66/1 on him mate"