August Forum Yankee .

[Faugheen_Machine]

Speculative, but have we selected An Tobar in any yet?

[Eggs]

Speculative, but have we selected An Tobar in any yet?

….in June for the Ballymore, Matey, but no reason why it can’t be selected again. I’d certainly be happy with including him.

[Dandrew99]

Think if we're doing a longshots yankee, we should try and stay away from the novice hurdlers and juveniles. Absolute minefield.

That said, from the recommendations so far I'd give my +1 to Edwardstone, Stattler and Three Stripe Life.

Not a massive Edwardstone fan but the Arkle/Champion Chase record speaks for itself, and with the questions over Shishkin, it looks a wide open race behind Energumene. Take out Politologue, Chacun Pour Soi, and Put The Kettle on from last season and there is barely any depth to the division at all, Ferny Hollow is a sick note, then Edwardstone smashed all the other novices (bar Gentleman De Mee who you could make excuses for).

Stattler was one of the best performances of the festival for me, Run Wild Fred is a solid enough yardstick and he absolutely smashed him. Very very tough looking division at the minute is about the only negative.

Don't think we need to say anything more about Three Stripe Life, he still looks solid value. Mighty Potter similarly looks good value still in the Arkle, but I think we have included him in a few yankees already?

One I'll throw into the mix is Santini for the X Country. Available at 20/1, I think they will target him at the national again and going via the X Country would make way more sense than going for a Gold Cup which is going to be even harder than last year. They've said he is definitely staying in training for another season, I think he would be clear second favourite if he were confirmed to be going down the X Country route. I think that's a much safer punt than going for a novice that we haven't even seen yet at a similar price.

Solid case made by Saxon for Langer Dan too, although I'm not convinced he's got the ability to be anywhere near a Stayers Hurdle if I'm honest. Not the deepest of divisions in the world though so I can see the argument at 33/1 for sure.

[Lbur4288]

One I've not heard mentioned for next year yet is Farouk d'Alene in the Gold Cup. I do think his OR is a bit lower than what it should be because he has a tendency to make the odd mistake but I'm hoping that a season of novice chasing and a touch of Gordon Elliott magic that he could be worth chancing at a nice price.

He's lost two chases - one over an inadequate 2m3f to Master Macshee and then a 1 3/4L defeat to Stattler over 3 miles. I think the extra couple of furlongs in the Gold Cup will play to his advantage and...whilst being prepared for some to disagree...I think he'd have beat L'homme Presse in the Brown Advisory this year but for his fall. If you watch the race back you'll see that he goes via the car park most of the way round and was absolutely cruising when he appeared to slip after a jump which brought him down and ended his race.

The Brown Advisory was the first and only time he's ran there and I think from what you seen of him prior to the fall he enjoyed himself around Cheltenham. He might not end up fav, 2nd or even 3rd fav but I feel he is criminally overpriced at 33s.

The 33s is available with 365 although thats standout and the rest seem to hover between 20-25/1.

[Eggs]

….I think the 33-1 Farouk Dalene (Gold Cup) Lbur4288 is with Hills. He’s 25-1 with 365.

From nominations here, to have a lively GC outsider onboard, it’s looking like it’s;

Stattler (20-1 Hills, 16-1 elsewhere) v Farouk (33-1 Hills, 25-1 elsewhere).

[ComplyOrDie]

Brown Advisory - Blazing Khal

[robith]

….I think the 33-1 Farouk Dalene (Gold Cup) Lbur4288 is with Hills. He’s 25-1 with 365.

From nominations here, to have a lively GC outsider onboard, it’s looking like it’s;

Stattler (20-1 Hills, 16-1 elsewhere) v Farouk (33-1 Hills, 25-1 elsewhere).

I am famously a big FDA fan, but on the numbers right now relative to their prices, Stattler is surely the pick, no?

[Lbur4288]

I am famously a big FDA fan, but on the numbers right now relative to their prices, Stattler is surely the pick, no?

He is for me although I do think FD is one that condition dependant to eke that bit more. Its chancey but worth a go at the odds.

[Eggs]

I am famously a big FDA fan, but on the numbers right now relative to their prices, Stattler is surely the pick, no?

…I have both in my book, but I agree that Stattler is the better shout for the Yankee.

i suppose the debate is NHC winner against a horse that was running a race before falling in the BANC. There wasn’t lots between them at Naas but Stattler came out top that day, Farouk beat Stattler in their Bumper days.

[nortonscoin200]

Afraid I disagree with Lbur4288 that Farouk d'Alene would have beaten L'Homme Presse at the Festival but for his fall.

Davy plotted a wide route all the way round probably to give Farouk a better look at his fences and maybe hoping to make use of slightly better ground.

But Davy was beginning to ask the horse some questions just before he came down - and the writing was already on the wall in my book.

By contrast, L'Homme Presse was still going easily at that stage and found plenty between the second last and the line. I can't see any way Farouk would have caught him if he'd stood up.

I'd also take L'Homme Presse to beat Ahoy Senor at Cheltenham every day of the week - Aintree is a totally different test and favours Ahoy Senor.

But trying to find an outsider in the Gold Cup for the yankee is a big ask - and you're going to be looking at a pretty low per centage bet in my view.

Stattler has a Gold Cup racing style and still has bags of potential after just 3 chase starts.

But beating Run Wild Fred 8 lengths in a six-runner race falls a long way short of toppling A Plus Tard and Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup.

Faced with those 2 superstars - and maybe Allaho as well - I don't see 20-1 as an outstanding bet.

You're probably looking at place prospects at best and at this stage I'd say there's more value in backing A Plus Tard on the nose at 4-1.

A Plus Tard is an incredibly solid yardstick. His best form has been at Cheltenham in each of the last 3 years.

I'd make him a more solid betting proposition than Galopin Des Champs right now.

Assuming Allaho doesn't turn up (he's my only GC bet so far) I'd make L'Homme Presse by far the most likely horse to fill the places and have a squeak at toppling the big guns.

But I realise 14-1 is not what we're looking for.

My view is we're probably looking at the wrong race to find a big price outsider for the Yankee.

But if we are determined to focus on the Gold Cup I'd rate 50-1 shots HEWICK and GAILLARD DU MESNIL better propositions than Farouk d'Alene or Stattler.

Hewick's rise from low grade hurdler to top chaser is absolutely extraordinary.

But in winning the Whitbread (3m 5f) and Galway Plate (2m 6f) he's not only proven his versatility but has posted a 166 rpr which is higher than Farouk and Staddler have achieved and equal to L'Homme Presse's best mark.

The trainer's already said the Gold Cup may be the target and if he runs Jordan Gainford will probably get the leg up. On the down side, he's never run at Cheltenham and has produced his best results on good ground.

The other one that slightly interests me is GAILLARD DU MESNIL (50-1 all round and 66-1 with Unibet) whose owner may well be keen to go for the Gold Cup now Al Boum Photo has retired.

Gaillard Du Mesnil was just getting into the Brown Advisory and starting to stay on well when Farouk d'Alene came down and interfered with him - costing him valuable momentum at a crucial stage of the race.

He then got in too close to the last and Paul only really got him back on an even keel a few strides later. But he ran on well to the line and still managed to close the gap to Ahoy Senor to 1 3/4 lengths.

So if I had to gamble on one outsider in the Gold Cup at this stage I'd go for Gaillard Du Mesnil each with cash-out at 50-1.

[Lobos]

You make a very good point re owner of GDM Norton's. Don't forget the Donnelly's have also retired Melon so GDM could be their flag bearer over fences. As much as his credentials stand out, he is no certain starter in the NHC and the Gold Cup as well as potentially the Stayers Hurdle or going back to the Banc could all come into play. I'd be inclined to play him TWAR at this stage or simply hold on for a while yet before getting involved.

[Bollinger]

Afraid I disagree with Lbur4288 that Farouk d'Alene would have beaten L'Homme Presse at the Festival but for his fall.

Davy plotted a wide route all the way round probably to give Farouk a better look at his fences and maybe hoping to make use of slightly better ground.

But Davy was beginning to ask the horse some questions just before he came down - and the writing was already on the wall in my book.

By contrast, L'Homme Presse was still going easily at that stage and found plenty between the second last and the line. I can't see any way Farouk would have caught him if he'd stood up.

I'd also take L'Homme Presse to beat Ahoy Senor at Cheltenham every day of the week - Aintree is a totally different test and favours Ahoy Senor.

But trying to find an outsider in the Gold Cup for the yankee is a big ask - and you're going to be looking at a pretty low per centage bet in my view.

Stattler has a Gold Cup racing style and still has bags of potential after just 3 chase starts.

But beating Run Wild Fred 8 lengths in a six-runner race falls a long way short of toppling A Plus Tard and Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup.

Faced with those 2 superstars - and maybe Allaho as well - I don't see 20-1 as an outstanding bet.

You're probably looking at place prospects at best and at this stage I'd say there's more value in backing A Plus Tard on the nose at 4-1.

A Plus Tard is an incredibly solid yardstick. His best form has been at Cheltenham in each of the last 3 years.

I'd make him a more solid betting proposition than Galopin Des Champs right now.

Assuming Allaho doesn't turn up (he's my only GC bet so far) I'd make L'Homme Presse by far the most likely horse to fill the places and have a squeak at toppling the big guns.

But I realise 14-1 is not what we're looking for.

My view is we're probably looking at the wrong race to find a big price outsider for the Yankee.

But if we are determined to focus on the Gold Cup I'd rate 50-1 shots HEWICK and GAILLARD DU MESNIL better propositions than Farouk d'Alene or Stattler.

Hewick's rise from low grade hurdler to top chaser is absolutely extraordinary.

But in winning the Whitbread (3m 5f) and Galway Plate (2m 6f) he's not only proven his versatility but has posted a 166 rpr which is higher than Farouk and Staddler have achieved and equal to L'Homme Presse's best mark.

The trainer's already said the Gold Cup may be the target and if he runs Jordan Gainford will probably get the leg up. On the down side, he's never run at Cheltenham and has produced his best results on good ground.

The other one that slightly interests me is GAILLARD DU MESNIL (50-1 all round and 66-1 with Unibet) whose owner may well be keen to go for the Gold Cup now Al Boum Photo has retired.

Gaillard Du Mesnil was just getting into the Brown Advisory and starting to stay on well when Farouk d'Alene came down and interfered with him - costing him valuable momentum at a crucial stage of the race.

He then got in too close to the last and Paul only really got him back on an even keel a few strides later. But he ran on well to the line and still managed to close the gap to Ahoy Senor to 1 3/4 lengths.

So if I had to gamble on one outsider in the Gold Cup at this stage I'd go for Gaillard Du Mesnil each with cash-out at 50-1.

I have to say Norton’s - I’ve always enjoyed reading your thoughts for many months. Always thorough, and yet concise too. I enjoy your musings for sure.

But I’m very intrigued as to your only selection (and many others will have him selected too) being Allaho for the Gold Cup thus far. I absolutely appreciate and take onside his current price being double of the market leading protagonists, but my thoughts keep being drawn to one simple factor -:

If the Gold Cup & Ryanair were being run tomorrow, where would Cheveley Park be running both Allaho (who’s won 2 Ryanair’s by a combined distance of over 20 lengths….) and A Plus Tard (who’s just won a Gold Cup by the biggest winning margin in a quarter of a century…)?

They’d be running in the same races they’ve just won.

And if those same races were ran next week, or next month, or 2 months time, those two horses would, without exception, be running in the two races that they’ve won with ease.

Now, as a very big advocater of ante post betting myself, I also appreciate, before anyone else tells me otherwise, that a) the races aren’t being run tomorrow, nor next week, nor next month…..and b) ante post betting is about the future (in this case 7 months time), not the present, as in tomorrow or next week. I absolutely understand this.

But anyone placing money on Allaho on a Gold Cup is can only hope/foresee A Plus Tard NOT running in the Gold Cup.

Because at the moment, as an ante post bettor, and as the markets would readily suggest, the if both horses arrive fit at the festival, and their form holds up throughout the Autumn/Winter months, Allaho would remain, in football parlance, a penalty kick in the Ryanair, and A Plus Tard would appear to be a free kick in a fairly promising position for the Gold Cup.

There would be no reason Cheveley Park would need to run their two best equine beasts in the same race, other than to prove a point.

It’s of course, only an opinion, but Allaho wouldn’t be running in a Gold Cup tomorrow if A Plus Tard was fit and racing well, so I would find it very difficult to find a reason why this dynamic would alter, even looking 7 months into the future……?

I’d be intrigued to listen of people’s thoughts - but I feel it’s a simple situation here that’s being over complicated.

Allaho and A Plus Tard, if both fit, run in the races they excelled at back in March.

[nortonscoin200]

Bollinger you're spot on - Allaho is long odds-on to run in the Ryanair again unless A Plus Tard doesn't make it to the Festival or suffers a big loss of form.

I put 6pts on Allaho to win the Gold Cup at 16-1 after he destroyed the field (winning by 14 lengths) in the Punchestown Gold Cup.

Seem to remember Ruby got very excited doing the post race analysis and I couldn't resist the price.

Haven't even got cash-out!!! Rash and foolhardy or what.

But as possibly the best horse in training Allaho would certainly have a big chance if he turned up for the Gold Cup.

Be a shame if he is never given the chance in his prime. But I accept it makes perfect sense for Cheveley to split them.

[Lbur4288]

nortonscoin200 I won't argue with A Plus Tard - he's set a very high bar and something I am rollling into (or trying to) multiples (hello Honeysuckle). We will have to disagree about Farouk D'Alene, I have watched it back a few times and Davy Russell was getting him a nice toe into the race when FD appeared to slip on landing, I thought he also came much wider on his turns than necessary, even if he was deliberately ridden wider for better ground/jumps.

A Plus Tard obviously the standout horse and what's been seen and done so far and I agree with others that Stattler is a better proposition than Farouk D'Alene but not by a country mile. I'm prepared to chance for a little go of 33s. If we all agreed then it'd be a very boring world.

[nortonscoin200]

nortonscoin200 I won't argue with A Plus Tard - he's set a very high bar and something I am rollling into (or trying to) multiples (hello Honeysuckle). We will have to disagree about Farouk D'Alene, I have watched it back a few times and Davy Russell was getting him a nice toe into the race when FD appeared to slip on landing, I thought he also came much wider on his turns than necessary, even if he was deliberately ridden wider for better ground/jumps.

A Plus Tard obviously the standout horse and what's been seen and done so far and I agree with others that Stattler is a better proposition than Farouk D'Alene but not by a country mile. I'm prepared to chance for a little go of 33s. If we all agreed then it'd be a very boring world.

Totally agree - and we’d have nothing to talk about on FJ.
Enjoy reading your posts @Lbur and funnily enough I’m more often than not in complete agreement with your picks.