July Forum Yankee

[Middle_Of_March]

No theme this month as I’ve put it up quite late. But ten days should still be enough time to find four easy winners

[Exar Essay]

I've been looking at likely shorteners recently and like the following:

Gaillard Du Mesnil 7/1 still available for the NHC. "Only" been in one of our yankees so far. At 7/1, still offers ew value which is important this far out. One who's target we can be fairly sure of and who has the quality to head the pack. If the race cuts up like it did last year, the tree places we'd get now could be valuable too. An alternative would be Whatdeawant at 25/1 who Willie has said a) wants a fence, and b) needs as far as possible (or words to that effect). Looks a dour stayer too and if he is to head to Cheltenham, I can't see him going elsewhere.

Edwardstone available at 16/1.A certain to target the QMCC. Course form obviously too as the reigning Arkle champ. With Shishkin's injury, he could pop around the early season 2m chases all but uncontested - appreciating there is a big IF there surrounding Shishkin. That would see him shorten significantly. Alan King agreed that he was beaten by the better horse on the day at Aintree but also noted he was tired. That was at the end of a long old season for Edwardstone - 7 races in total and just 3 weeks post Chelts compared to GDM's 5 races in total and 5 weeks since his last (less competitive) outing. I wouldn't be averse to Gentleman De Mee as an alternative but the competition on Ireland will be fiercer early season. Can him, Ferny Hollow, Energumene and even Blue Lord avoid each other? No Yankee appearances yet.

Jonbon at 7/1for the Arkle. Appreciating there is some doubt over the target, but Nicky likes a 2m chaser and I think he'll head here. Similar to Edwardstone too in that there is very limited competition this side of the water whereby he could canter round early season targets and shorten in the process. West Cork and Monmiral are next best in the betting at 33/1 (CH excluded given that he heads to the CH). Always seems to run his race too which should enhance place chances (you'd hope). One yankee appearance so far.

Blazing Khal at 20/1 for the BANC. Screams value to me. Charles Byrnes has suggested he is likely to take the Weapons Amnesty route which would see him here. Was outright fav for AB before injury last year. Byrnes confirmed he was 100% fit back in April, but thought better of bringing him back for one race only at Punchestown. Looked scopey to me and I think he'll take to a fence. I appreciate that Nicholl's horses come on for a fence, but that Gelino Bello is shorter for this despite being soundly beaten twice by BK last year and that Nicholls is a Prestburyaphobe is a miscalculation by the bookies in my view. No Yankee appearances yet.

[Kautostar]

I've been looking at likely shorteners recently and like the following:

Gaillard Du Mesnil 7/1 still available for the NHC. "Only" been in one of our yankees so far. At 7/1, still offers ew value which is important this far out. One who's target we can be fairly sure of and who has the quality to head the pack. If the race cuts up like it did last year, the tree places we'd get now could be valuable too. An alternative would be Whatdeawant at 25/1 who Willie has said a) wants a fence, and b) needs as far as possible (or words to that effect). Looks a dour stayer too and if he is to head to Cheltenham, I can't see him going elsewhere.

Edwardstone available at 16/1.A certain to target the QMCC. Course form obviously too as the reigning Arkle champ. With Shishkin's injury, he could pop around the early season 2m chases all but uncontested - appreciating there is a big IF there surrounding Shishkin. That would see him shorten significantly. Alan King agreed that he was beaten by the better horse on the day at Aintree but also noted he was tired. That was at the end of a long old season for Edwardstone - 7 races in total and just 3 weeks post Chelts compared to GDM's 5 races in total and 5 weeks since his last (less competitive) outing. I wouldn't be averse to Gentleman De Mee as an alternative but the competition on Ireland will be fiercer early season. Can him, Ferny Hollow, Energumene and even Blue Lord avoid each other? No Yankee appearances yet.

Jonbon at 7/1for the Arkle. Appreciating there is some doubt over the target, but Nicky likes a 2m chaser and I think he'll head here. Similar to Edwardstone too in that there is very limited competition this side of the water whereby he could canter round early season targets and shorten in the process. West Cork and Monmiral are next best in the betting at 33/1 (CH excluded given that he heads to the CH). Always seems to run his race too which should enhance place chances (you'd hope). One yankee appearance so far.

Blazing Khal at 20/1 for the BANC. Screams value to me. Charles Byrnes has suggested he is likely to take the Weapons Amnesty route which would see him here. Was outright fav for AB before injury last year. Byrnes confirmed he was 100% fit back in April, but thought better of bringing him back for one race only at Punchestown. Looked scopey to me and I think he'll take to a fence. I appreciate that Nicholl's horses come on for a fence, but that Gelino Bello is shorter for this despite being soundly beaten twice by BK last year and that Nicholls is a Prestburyaphobe is a miscalculation by the bookies in my view. No Yankee appearances yet.

Not keen on edwardstone as I think you would need energumene and shishkin both to miss the race in order to maybe collect. I like the other three suggestions

[robith]

With second season chaser record, and the record of ex RSA winners and placers, L'Homme Press doesn't get much cut for the Gold Cup, does he

[Eggs]

…not that we can’t include again, but GDM and Jonbon have already been selected in previous months.

With doubts about Shishkin, I’ll nominate Gentleman de Mee (14-1) for Champion Chase. Fine performance beating Edwardstone at Aintree & already given a namecheck for the race by Mullins.

[Lobos]

A couple from me that haven't been included yet......

Ahoy Senor/Gold Cup.... clearly being aimed at the race Ran a big race in the RSA despite several novicey errors but was mightily Impressive at Aintree. You feel lots of improvement still to come. 10/1 seems very fair and that'll look very generous should he win off top weight in the Ladbroke Trophy which is being talked if as his Autumn target. Connections aren't afraid of anything.



Instit/Mares Chase.........Good form in France against some of their best young horses. Good 2nd behind decent yardstick Party Central. Following her never nearer 4th at Auteuil Mullins said they'll step her up in trip this season and send her over fences. Based on this year's race, it looks primed for a good Novice to get involved and she could well be the new Colreevy. 16/1 about her is worth a swing.

[FinalFurlong91]

Instit does have a nice pedigree

You'd definitely be hoping her jumping genes are from the Saint Des Saints side of her pedigree not the damsire coastal path who produced asterion furlonge and bacardys

[BigChaang]

Arkle .- Jonbon , El Fabiolo , Mighty Potter..
--------------
Mares hdl.- Brandy Love , T.m.S. Girl..
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N.H.Chs. - G. d. Mesnil..
--------------
B/More hdl. - An Tobar ..
--------------
B.adv nov chs.- The Nice Guy ..
-------------
Turners nov chs.- Sir Gerhard , Three Stripe Life..
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Ryanair chs. - Allaho..
-----------
Stayers hdl. - Flooring Porter..
----------
mares Chs. - Allegorie de Vassy..
----------------
---------------------------------------------- These are the Horses in Our Yankees this year to date .

[Saxon Warrior]

For alternates, I would look at, in the order listed below:

Ash Tree Meadow - NHC
Luccia - Mares Novice Hurdle
Redemption Day - Supreme
Gentleman De Mee - Champion Chase
Green Glory (or Tag Man) - Albert Bartlett

[FinalFurlong91]

The Nice guy is my idea of the winner at this stage but i believe he has been in a few yankees so could be worth covering the second best staying novice hurdler going chasing in one or two

Minella cocooner at 10s-12s, if the nice guy can't jump or gets injured again he seems the obvious replacement.

blazing khal is the other one I like but don't think he's worth backing till we know he's OK after the injury even at 20/1

[somer1]

Steps back and throws Lily Du Berlais into the mix for the MNH 16s with 365?

[HoldenTheReins]

I'm going to throw Stattler into the mix for a Gold Cup choice at the prices.

[Lbur4288]

Big fan of Redemption Day here too Saxon Warrior although I'm more cautious in my approach to backing Mullins bingo horses this year and utilising TWAR.

I'll throw a few speculative ones in at decent odds:

Kudasheva 25/1 (Mares Novices) - looked a promising mare in her P2P when leaving the field for dust in the run in. Sold to Henry for 370k, the highest selling mare from Pat Doyle ever. Some decent horses in the family, she's a half sister to Don Cossack - for singles purposes, I would suggest 20s twar with Hills should be considered.

Present Soldier 33/1 (Albert Bartlett) - won a 3 mile Tattersalls P2P beating another horse I rate highly, Arctic Bresil (ironically sold for 5k more than Present Soldier at sales). I already liked the P2P race won by Nick Rockett where Arctic Bresil looked like going close before falling. I believe that race will throw up plenty of decent standard horses so it makes sense to cover Present Soldier too. 300k fee and goes into training with Gordon Elliott for Bective Stud. I suspect we will hear a lot from this coming season.

Gala Marceau 33/1 (Triumph Hurdle) - exciting French juvenile mare who is settling in with Willie Mullins - I know there was some confusion with regards to who was to train her (HDB mentioned) so I took it upon myself to try and find out. Was told she had already arrived at Mullins stables and was settling in, no more information than that unfortunately. Has been a revelation in 2 runs switching to hurdles and has a similar profile to Vauban. I'm not one to back in the Triumph this far out usually but she's one I rate and has the right profile. May be a little difficult to fit into a Yankee as only Sky and Unibet have a market with her in it.

Aside from the chancey novice potential, Id agree with Gentlemen de Mee in the Champion Chase and Stattler in the Gold Cup.

[Saxon Warrior]

I like the improving profile, and experience of Gala Marceau too Lbur4288

Never sure with Willie's 3yo Fillies, where they'll end up as a 4yo at Cheltenham.

Looking at the Willie Mullins Diary pages, the only race she may turn up in would be

The Boodles
WPM has run 1 Mare in the in 10 years, and that was an Irish one (18th place) not French

Mares Novice Hurdle
He's ran 29 Mares in the MNH in a decade, and never had a 4yo declared for it.

Triumph Hurdle
WPM has had 25 runners in this, in a decade.
8 were Mares, and all started in France
These include a 3rd place, a 2nd place and one (lucky) winner.

So if anything, its as certain as it possibly could be on WPM stats, that if she runs at Cheltenham 2023 its in the Triumph.

His normal modus operandi with 3yo Fillies, is the either
(A) give them a season off to get used to his training programme, and start them off as 4yo rising 5, with a Mares Novice Hurdle campaign
(can't do that with GM as she wouldnt be a MNH horse after a year off, only this season)

Or
B) if they stand up well enough to training at Closutton, give them a run in a decent 3yo Hurdle (Christmas Grade 2 used for Lets Dance, Echoes In Rain, among others) - and.if they fare well, then carry on with them in good races - or if they dont show enough at Christmas, rough them off until the following season.

[Lbur4288]

Am I correct in assuming the two wins over hurdles in France would only leave her with novice status until October?