How you play the Handicaps?

[Lobos]

Absolutely the way forward Saxon. Leaving it late or even on the day itself if you are going in EW for extra places has to be the call.

[robith]

My handicap record is pretty poor, but this year I stuck to my guns, backed the obvious plots and the rest left to the day. And guess what? By and large the prices were still pretty juicy and you got tons of places.

I mean it's a shame my only winner was State Man, but can confirm what we say is true

[nortonscoin200]

Enjoying the debate on this thread. Here's my view for what it's worth.

It is very easy to get sucked in to betting on Cheltenham handicaps too early.

But I certainly wouldn't want to be too dogmatic about holding fire on all handicap bets until entries/five day decs/day of the race.

Surely the most important principle when considering any ante-post bet at the Festival is to assess value versus risk.

I'd say that applies just as much when betting on the Gold Cup as the Pertemps.

Last year's Naiad bet Happygolucky was sent off 100-30fav for the Ultima on the day but was a 40-1 shot when Spectre tipped him up weeks earlier.

From memory, that price had more than halved long before the 5 day decs and he was certainly single figures by the weekend before the Festival.

My view is that anyone jumping on board at single figures in the days before the Festival wouldn't be getting a knockout bet - but those who got in early at 40s down to 25s had fantastic value.

OK, you have to be prepared to take the rough with the smooth - this year's Naiad 33-1 shot Galahad Quest didn't line up in the Ultima due to trainer error imo.

But I'd expect to make more money betting 1pt on each of 10 Festival 33-1 shots in February than staking 1pt on each of 10 Festival 6-4 shots on the day of the race.

I'd also suggest that some of the Festival handicaps are no more complicated than the championship novice races.

The Pertemps qualifiers obviously give us a huge clue as to the horses likely to line up in the final.

It didn't work out too well in March but 11-2 co-favourites Winter Fog (4th) and Sire Du Berlais were both available at 16-1 after their qualifiers.

I'd say both were value bets at16-1 but at 11-2 on the day of the race you weren't getting an edge.

And even a potential lottery like the Boodles can be successfully mined early if you can read the clues like Scooby did with Gaelic Warrior who went off 13-8fav at the off (no value at all imo) but was snapped up at 25-1 by his followers in September if memory serves me right.

My point is that it doesn't make sense to lay down firm principles with the Cheltenham handicaps and say: "I wont touch them till the 5-day decs."

Sure, it will still be possible to find some value left but the price of most of the major players will have long gone.

[BigChaang]

Wise Words Nortonscoin 200 ,
A balanced approach is the way forward . No harm in discussing the possibilities early doors .
I am willing to take a risk and have smaller bets at bigger prices .
But , obviously , there's a big advantage in having n.r.n.b. too.
For what it's worth , my biggest h/cap winner this year was bet on the day and a huge price .
Though previously i had some luck with the early doors bets.
I must admit i have said that i'll wait till n.r.n.b this time , but i bet i still have a few speculator's !! . ..

[Spectre]

That's a very good post NC.

It doesn't pay to close your mind or be rigid in your approach. Better to follow your instincts and be ready to act. Value bets can appear at any time.

[fatherjohn]

nortonscoin200 great post. I think there is another layer there as well if using the pertempts example. when the 16s were available it looked like a very likely target for winter fog but there was still a good chance sire du b would go stayers. its always a risk but the risk of those two going elsewhere felt different. even if he ends up in the right race I don't think it was mid Feb until elliott confirmed pertempts. so I'd say even if odds were 70/30 in favour of pertempts that 30% means its more like a 12s shot.

is that how others see it or something that you just back your opinion more strongly than I do

[Middle_Of_March]

I look for the clear plot horses and try to get them inside early enough. State Man being this years best example.

However, I have a tendency to get way too involved with one or two and they affect how my handicap week goes. Most will know (I’m very transparent and honest before and after the event so it’s impossible not to be) that for this years Fez, not just my whole handicap position but pretty much my whole week was revolves around Gaelic Warrior. Going into the race, I was affectively looking at:
- Won and I’d have been up for the week even if the other 27 races lost. And probably near enough the entire season in one hit.
- Places and I’d have been up from the race because of the each way side which I’d been pressing for a while.
- Unplaced/Fell/PU and I’d have very much been in a scenario when getting out of the week level would’ve been very very difficult (though it would’ve happened anyway because of Facile Vega antepost).

Now I always look to play every race on its merit. And I did in that situation make GW a max bet. And so I don’t regret that. It was actually more than a max bet in the end because of multiples and the rest of the stuff he went in. But I do regret that because I had made him a max bet, I was closed off to the idea of others in the handicaps also being max bets. There was 3 others I would’ve had more on (State Man and 2 losers) antepost but I allowed my mind to be focused too much on Gaelic at the prices to want to have more on them. In my head, State Man at 10/1 at one point for the County was a good bet but I didn’t want to pull the trigger at that point when Gaelic was near the same price and I was far more confident in the latter.

I think as a note to myself with that in mind, if I’m going to lump on one, that’s fine. But I absolutely can’t allow other races to be swayed because of that. Even if there’s other handicappers I like.

[Redbridge]

The enemy loves handicaps and that is the reason I avoid them, The Dash at Epsom could have only been dreamed up by the bookies, at least it's a good time to make a cuppa mid-afternoon.

[Saxon Warrior]

The enemy loves handicaps and that is the reason I avoid them, The Dash at Epsom could have only been dreamed up by the bookies, at least it's a good time to make a cuppa mid-afternoon.

I agree.

My betting book for Cheltenham is skewed dramatically toward Graded races, where most, if not all, my key horses are running in the Graded races.

Love having a bit of a dart at the Festival Handicap Hurdles though, particularly with good novices.

[Lobos]

I agree.

My betting book for Cheltenham is skewed dramatically toward Graded races, where most, if not all, my key horses are running in the Graded races.

Love having a bit of a dart at the Festival Handicap Hurdles though, particularly with good novices.

On the Novice point Saxon, did they win the majority of the Handicaps this year as they have done in most recent years ?

[isitmarchyet]

My plan will once again be to ignore them until the day, but I know I won't. Hopefully I'll be more restrained and limit myself to a few Gaelic Warrior type shorteners and then leave the majority until the day, but we'll see.

When I look back at last year though I tied up a lot of funds on the handicaps and in hindsight I would've been better using those funds on other races.

In related news, I just realised Unibet have the handicaps priced already!

[Spectre]

I agree.

My betting book for Cheltenham is skewed dramatically toward Graded races, where most, if not all, my key horses are running in the Graded races.

Love having a bit of a dart at the Festival Handicap Hurdles though, particularly with good novices.

I'm happy to play the handicaps early.

You can guarantee the Mullins and Elliott horses will be backed so they're easy to trade away when the noises start. Hopefully I'm left with their runners at significantly shorter prices, which let's me use the exchange for free bets.

I also do the same for horses that fit the trends/stats. The markets always react to that, and usually they become pundit horses, so I hope for the same advantage I get from the Mullins/Elliott horses.

I then work really hard at getting as much information as I can about likely plans from all available sources, so I can and then react accordingly, by holding, cashing out, or laying.

[Maxfield]

I'm pretty much the same as Saxon Warrior where my bets are placed on the graded races, which also includes the bumper. I would say 95% of my bets are now placed on these races to make sure I have covered all angles in each race through e/w singles if possible, but mostly e/w doubles.

Apart from the Mares Hurdle and Mares Novice I had the winner and a placed horse in every graded race and thanks to Honey Suckle, Elemy and Bob Olinger who I based all my doubles round I was lucky enough to have a good Cheltenham .

I then wished that the money I wasted on the handicaps where placed on topping up my returns in the graded races. I only had, 3 placed horses and two winners from all the handicaps one being Coole Cody at a nice price and State Man who ended up in a few each way doubles. Apart from that with the weather being how it was I Iost about 8 horses with good chances and going forward from now on I've vowed to only ever back on the day and only small each way bets for fun, unless something like State Man comes along.

So personally, for me I find betting on the graded races more straight forward and profitable than finding a winner in the handicaps, unless one really stands out as having a great chance.

[Saxon Warrior]

On the Novice point Saxon, did they win the majority of the Handicaps this year as they have done in most recent years ?

2022 largely holds up on my view to aim more toward the Handicap Hurdles, and novices.

Excluding the Boodles there are 4 handicap Hurdles and 4 Handicap Chases.


Handicap Chase Winners (all UK horses)
* Corach Rambler (8yo Novice)
* Global Citizen 10yo
* Coole Cody 11yo
* Chambard 10yo

Handicap Hurdle Winners (3 IRE, 1 UK)
* Commander of Fleet
* Third Wind
* State Man (Novice - Willie Mullins)
* Banbridge (Novice - Joseph)

With the exception of State Man, you could have easily waited until 5-Day entries to look for (find?) all of the other 7 Festival Handicap winners, without missing big odds antepost.
State Man you could have taken 14/1 NRNB too.

State Man was a relatively easy to pick at NRNB

Banbridge at Decs (if not 5-Day entries, could have been picked on the basis that the Pipe is usually won by Joseph/Gordon/Willie and Joseph targets the Pipe more than any other of the 7 Handicaps outside juveniles)

The results from 2022 tends to back up my own plans to:

* Focus on most of the Handicap betting going onto Hurdles bets, over Chases.

* Consider at NRNB Key Novices from top Irish stables (Willie, Gordon) and Joseph-M.Pipe only.

* Consider at 6-Day Entries (with NRNB) and at Decs further bets.

* Dont overlook big priced horses that have followed an IRISH RACE PLANNING journey (Commander of Fleet 50/1) - plus State Man, and Banbridge made it 3 out of 3 of the Irish winners/hcap hurdlers found in 2022

* Be willing to bet early if there's knowledge of a handicap race plan (ie: Pertemps Qualifiers, Gordon's - Pipe or Kim Muir plot revealed)

* Consider - Is there any value at all in backing any Plate, Ultima, Grand Annual bet before NRNB?

[Lobos]

Brilliant analysis Saxon and most helpful for everyone. Very interesting that English horses once again dominated the Handicap Chases. Older horses bucked the trend this year so dangerous to discount them blindly. Confirmed my own thoughts that waiting until very late is the way to go with the Handicaps. Oh, and Mullins just owns the County Hurdle!