How you play the Handicaps?

[ThomasJHogg]

I’m intrigued as to how members play the handicaps each year. Last season I felt the downfall of my strategy was getting too involved too early in handicap betting, and any winners I did have seemed to come from analysis on or in the 48 hours before the races themselves. Of course they are notoriously tricky fields to solve at the best of times, but I’m interested to hear how people play them? Leave them alone completely till March? Allocate a certain pot % to them when the betting comes out?

[Eggs]

…March underlined that I should leave it until the day but it’s hard to resist if one is highlighted on here at a price by a few shrewdies. I dare say I’ll do exactly the same next year.

The ante-post any race market is tempting if the price is right but that would be win only with enhanced places on the day for specific races.

We’ll also have our Niad.

[Stormez]

I’ve finally realised that handicaps should be left to the week of the festival, and probably to day of the race. So many variables, even between final decs & the off.

I had a fair bit of success on antepost handicap bets in previous years & think that fooled me into thinking it would happen every year. This year was an eye opener though, only State Man provided any antepost success.

I will however keep an eye out on select races though, namely Elliotts for the Kim Muir & Pertemps, and Willies for the County & Martin Pipe. Think they are still angles worth following antepost.

[Istabraq]

My starting point these days is focus on under performing/protected graded horses, most handicaps are won by novices or unexposed horses, there are exceptions of course but even these older winners are likely to be horses who haven't fully fulfilled their potential.
Mullins and Elliott is probably as good a starting point as any.
And yes I tend agree, getting stuck into a Pertemps horse in November because he hacked his way round and ran into fifth and therefore must be plotted isn't likely to come off too many times, there are probably three dozen horses who fit this criteria.
If you're fortunate enough to have multiple accounts then waiting for the NRNB has to make sense, of course you're going to be losing a little value but backing a 10/1 shot NRNB when 14s is available will pay off over time, the chances are you're backing a few in the race and there can be only one winner.
Just my take of course...


nb - keep an eye out for Saxon Warrior warriors efforts in his race diaries, some incredible analysis to be found in there...

[BookieBasher]

Usually a copy of the Racing Post and a Dartboard

[Atlantic Viking]

Each year I lie to myself and say i'm not going to get involved with handicaps at all antepost, only to have a sack full of slips in January.

This year, bar any forum punt, I do actually intend to stick to it, it's hard enough on the day with 6 and 7 places never mind months in advance. Prices for the majority are bigger on the day too.

[Istabraq]

Each year I lie to myself and say i'm not going to get involved with handicaps at all antepost, only to have a sack full of slips in January.

This year, bar any forum punt, I do actually intend to stick to it, it's hard enough on the day with 6 and 7 places never mind months in advance. Prices for the majority are bigger on the day too.

Probably means you'll have 4 in the book for the Pertemps by Christmas…

[Spectre]

My approach is to go selectively early. I want a book, and the Exchange is particularly helpful for adjusting my position.

I have my ear firmly to the ground in terms of plans, and I want novices in my book from the right stables. I also specifically want Mullins, Elliott, and Skelton handicappers on board at the best early prices I can get. This method combined with the exchange is virtually idiot proof in terms of making a profit to be honest.

I then get a second batch of horses onside when all the extra places are available, plus bits of infill as the races really start to take shape. The key is finding horses you have confidence in shortening in the market and having the Exchange to lay off again when you want/need to.

I really have to emphasise that my approach is very much a book approach designed to find the winner and find as many of the extended places as possible. It's definitely not an approach that will suit everyone.

[FinalFurlong91]

My approach is to back loads of non runners and horses that get tailed off if they actually make it

A few small bets on some interesting big priced horses for me I'm 2023

Though I said that last year

And the year before

And the year before that

Basically I'm a sucker for an elliot losing plot job

[fatherjohn]

I changed my approach this year and put quite a few bets in when nrnb kicked in. that covered the horses that highlighted with strong trends (Brazil for example) and where it looked like mullins had a graded horse that could go handicaps (state man). at that stage state man was about 10s for 4 races, 3 of them handicaps but I was happy if he landed in one it would be a good bet.

I think with mullins in particular you have such depth in graded races that he is happy to let one he rates as graded horse but has a small setback drop down for the handicaps.

think I'll generally wait for nrnb again for all handicaps but happy to throw a few darts at that point

[fatherjohn]

sorry was trying to credit Saxon Warrior for strong trends but ballsed it up

[PaisleyClegg]

I know the question was posed from an Antepost perspective. But does anyone else bet in-running?

I find that the odds don't change too much from the starting prices for quite a while into the race but you can see who has settled nicely etc...

[Lbur4288]

I usually find 8 or 9 plot jobs, complain when they don't run/win and state that next year I'll be playing the handicaps on the day...then repeat the process from January.

[Magpie]

I know the question was posed from an Antepost perspective. But does anyone else bet in-running?

I find that the odds don't change too much from the starting prices for quite a while into the race but you can see who has settled nicely etc...

Yes I tend to do it with Bet366, found a few decent winners, just by seeing how they are going, and if going well, and should stay i back them.

[Saxon Warrior]

Handicaps are tricky, if you are only wanting to bet one or two in each of them.

Handicap Hurdles are easier for me to find winners in, it’s something I follow through the season, taking an interest in all of the early entries big handicap hurdles.

I don’t have the same buzz for handicap chases in the season, or the Cheltenham Festival, but do have a go at them, when I think I see an angle.

Handicap Hurdles at Cheltenham
Willie in the County Hurdle, with a novice, is one we all know.

Pertemps was to pick Gordon’s plot horse, and back it early, but last season he went mad and ran everything in the 2 Irish qualifiers and in the Final, and it was carnage for him.

Willie, Joseph and Gordon in the Martin Pipe usually finds you the winner.

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Overall, I don’t base much of my profit planning around success in handicaps, as a serious antepost bettor, I’m invested in the Graded races for 12 months, and I can’t be invested in those 9 handicap races where we have no idea (largely) all season what’s going to run, and what weight they will carry.

Ive now moved to a model where the majority of my Festival handicap bets will only be from NRNB onwards.

I will track those I’m keen on through the season, and match them, to specific handicaps, but unless the trainer states a horse is running in a specific handicap, then I’m not getting too involved in guessing it will happen.

Theres a lot to be said about leaving a lot of this until 5-Day Decs, as so much is revealed late on c/w what we know about Graded races.

The Willie Mullins Diary, the Gordon Elliott Diary and the Irish Race Diary will also be used to glean sources of info on certain horses for handicaps.

The biggest frustration (although overall profit was huge, due to lots of Grade 1 wins), when assessing last seasons set of results for me, was the fact that the Coral Cup winner at 50/1 was clearly highlighted in my Irish Race Planning Diary, ridden by a conditional jockey I’ve been mad about all season, and I didn’t really focus much/enough on that race from 5-Day entries onwards (probably being in mourning for losing my 365 account).

Also Joseph’s Pipe winner was a clear option for those that follow the Irish Race Planning Diary.
I remember being surprised how well he won a race that Gordon’s Boodles horses generally come through, and I also walked by him as a suitable pick, trained by a key trainer in the race.

So leaving it late, and not getting all my bets down early, will be a plan for the handicaps, as if I've already backed the one, two or three I want in each race, there’s no space for me to add in late picks.

Keep it lean until 5-Day entries, maybe 48-hour Decs even.