April 2022 - Forum Yankee.

[Eggs]

….thinking of Punchestown;

TNG seems a given for BANC. Worth noting, though, he was included in last months Yankee at 8-1 (6-1 current best price).

Saxon has mentioned Tag Man (AB), Minella Cocooner (Turners) at big prices. Both are 33-1 with 365.

Mighty Potter might be still under the radar (14-1 for Arkle, 10-1 Turners) but no clear target. Vauban and State Man look destined for the CH but not sure 8-1 is value against Honey & Constitution Hill.

[DenmanSacre]

There aren't many at Punchestown who have impressed that aren't already incredibly short in the market.

From the bumpers, I'd take Sir Argus over Tag Man for the Albert Bartlett but the AB is a race I'd not particularly be thinking about this far out. I don't think he is even priced up though.

Flame Bearer has impressed me since the turn of the year. He's 33s for the Arkle, which appeals much more than El Fabiolo.

State Man is still available at 6s to 8s for the Champion Hurdle.

Sir Gerhard disappointed but 8/1 for the Turner's could be value in 11 months time.

Gentlemansgame ran well behind Klassical Dream. Supposedly going over fences. Could be one to consider for the Brown Advisory, although only priced up by Unibet at the moment.

[BigChaang]

Just looking on r.post . Sir Argus is same owner as Galopin des Champ's and trained by w.p. Mullins .,
So definitely of interest . even if not in our Yankee.

[That Horse]

Flame Bearer has impressed me since the turn of the year. He's 33s for the Arkle, which appeals much more than El Fabiolo.

Cheltenham isn't the be all and end all for a lot of Irish trainers/owners though when the prize money is so good at home, you know at least with Mullins that his horses will come over if fit

[DenmanSacre]

Cheltenham isn't the be all and end all for a lot of Irish trainers/owners though when the prize money is so good at home, you know at least with Mullins that his horses will come over if fit

Mullins is the same - not all of his horses come across that have chances at Cheltenham. Gentleman De Mee, El Fabiolo, Ceil De Neige, Ha Dor and others didn't come over who would have had chances in various races at Cheltenham.

Another part of Mullins bingo.

[Middle_Of_March]

The only ones I can see so far are:-

Clearly identified

The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Allaho - Gold Cup
(the latter has the issue of the Ryanair though)

The ones you could see as a possible are:-

Minella Cocooner - Brown Advisory
(alternative at a price)
Also 33/1 Turners with Bet365

-----------

Tag Man - Albert Bartlett

* Did that farce of a race, tell us anything, or was it just a farce?
* Henry has had only 12 Bumper winners in 5 years
* This was only his 2nd of this season
* When they win they're usually good (Bob Olinger, Journey With Me)
* When they run well at the Punchestown Festival they're usually good (Minella Indo, Monalee - both placed on debut)
* The obvious link of
Henry-Albert Bartlett-Punchestown Festival Bumpers (Monalee, Minella Indo)

* He's not quoted in the Bartlett yet.
* Maybe worth adding along the whole bookmakers list
* He's by Fame and Glory (two of his three best NH horses are Commander of Fleet and The Nice Guy were 2nd and 1st in the Albert Bartlett)
* He stays on well every race
* His best two siblings were best/won in 3M Hurdles
* His unraced Dam is related to 3M+ staying horses

I need to watch the race back again but dont want to miss something, that turns out to be a Festival clue.

If FJ members could get him added to the Albert Bartlett, that would help.

Would you go for these four then Sax now Tag Man is priced up in a couple of places?

[Saxon Warrior]

Would you go for these four then Sax now Tag Man is priced up in a couple of places?

Just need to see the RPRs for Friday and Saturday in full, and take another look at the last 2 days again, will try and do that this evening.

[Saxon Warrior]

The only ones I can see so far are:-

Clearly identified

The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Allaho - Gold Cup
(the latter has the issue of the Ryanair though)

The ones you could see as a possible are:-

Minella Cocooner - Brown Advisory
(alternative at a price)
Also 33/1 Turners with Bet365

-----------

Tag Man - Albert Bartlett

* Did that farce of a race, tell us anything, or was it just a farce?
* Henry has had only 12 Bumper winners in 5 years
* This was only his 2nd of this season
* When they win they're usually good (Bob Olinger, Journey With Me)
* When they run well at the Punchestown Festival they're usually good (Minella Indo, Monalee - both placed on debut)
* The obvious link of
Henry-Albert Bartlett-Punchestown Festival Bumpers (Monalee, Minella Indo)

* He's not quoted in the Bartlett yet.
* Maybe worth adding along the whole bookmakers list
* He's by Fame and Glory (two of his three best NH horses are Commander of Fleet and The Nice Guy were 2nd and 1st in the Albert Bartlett)
* He stays on well every race
* His best two siblings were best/won in 3M Hurdles
* His unraced Dam is related to 3M+ staying horses

I need to watch the race back again but dont want to miss something, that turns out to be a Festival clue.

If FJ members could get him added to the Albert Bartlett, that would help.

Those additionally for consideration would be

Magic Daze (6yo)
Still only 6, and lightly raced over 2 seasons (one P2P win over 3M, 4 Hurdles, 5 Novice Chases)
She rose to the challenge of a Graded Handicap Chase at the Festival, and ran out a ready winner.

She has shown a tendency to run-away in her earlier chases, and spoil her chances, but this was an altogether much better display.
RPR 145 (+8lb on her best), the rating is 1lb shy of Elimay's win in the Mares Chase.

She isnt priced up for the Mares Chase 2023 yet, but I think its worth us getting some prices from the bookies, to see if one or more may overprice her, given her blowout in the Arkle, and maybe being seen as a pure 2-Miler.

My own thinking is that Henry doesnt have a ready made chasing mare for the Mares Chase next season, thats been chasing this season, apart from Magic Daze.

Shes been at the last two Festivals, 2nd in the Mares Novice Hurdle on her 3rd Hurdles start, and the Arkle blowout this season.

Cheltenham 2023 - She wont go to the Champion Chase, She wont go to the Ryanair, if she ran there for the 3rd successive year, I would say its more likely to be in the Mares Chase, than another race.

Henry was disappointed with her jumping when narrowly beaten in a Grade 2 by Concertista, and I'm sure last weeks win gave him a lot of confidence with her for chasing next season.

She did win a 3M P2P, and is from the family of Kicking King (Arkle runner-up to Gold Cup winner in 12-months), so its not beyond possible, that as she matures, and settles, the 2M4F of the Mares Chase could come into wider focus (maybe we can see that before others do?)


El Fabiolo (5yo)
Won a 2M Hurdle that has been on thje down a little since being won for Willie by Un De Sceaux and Arctic Fire, a few years ago.
El Fab's time was pretty quick (faster comparatively than State Man in the Grade 1, the same day), and he looks tailor-made to take on Jonbon next season, in an Arkle Chase.

A 150 official rating, and an RPR of 155, are comparative with Arkle win/placed horses that have had one season novice hurdling.

Finally,

Three Stripe Life (6yo)
Shouldnt be written off following his 5th Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, in 4 months.
No other Novices have been faced with that task, and his form has been 22213 in those Grade ones,
with RPRs of 142, 147, 148, 145, 148.
It may be no disgrace to be beaten 7L by State Man, given he is a Champion Hurdle potential horse, and is fresher from a much lighter campaign that TSL.

The Turners would be the race for him, and his RPR is comparable with all Turners winners in the last decade that went Novice Chasing straight after a novice Hurdle season (apart from Vautour and Yorkhill).

Gordon's record in the Turners, in the last 5 seasons is
4 runners
2 winners - Samcro and Shattered Love
1 placed - Mengli Khan
1 faller - Envoi Allen (4/9 Fav)
If the trainer targets one at this race, then he doesnt waste any decs.

We also have the benefit that PP, Betfiar and Bet Victor all pushed him out to 16/1 for the race, which is very good of them.

We know he likes Cheltenham, beaten 3L by Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore, and his breeding, and recent form are those of a midtrip horse.

Summary

I would probably choose these three, along with The Nice Guy (Brown Advisory) for the Yankee, providing we can find prices for Magic Daze (Mares Chase) and they are attractive enough for us to take the chance with her for that race.

[The Giant Bolster]

Great cases Saxon Warrior - thanks for the work. Magic Daze is one I didn't have on my radar but looks a good shout.

What's your take on the risk of El Fabiolo ending up in the Turners? My view is that the successes of Vauban and State Man and the underperformance of Sir Gerhard means the latter might go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle. Plus Dysart Dynamo looks very much a 2m horse at present (albeit with questions over his health). I really like El Fabiolo for a novice chase but am worried about which one he will end up in.

[Clinker]

PP have Magic Daze for the MC at 16s currently I believe.

[Saxon Warrior]

PP have Magic Daze for the MC at 16s currently I believe.

Yes, I asked them to quote

[Saxon Warrior]

Great cases Saxon Warrior - thanks for the work. Magic Daze is one I didn't have on my radar but looks a good shout.

What's your take on the risk of El Fabiolo ending up in the Turners? My view is that the successes of Vauban and State Man and the underperformance of Sir Gerhard means the latter might go chasing and be aimed at the Arkle. Plus Dysart Dynamo looks very much a 2m horse at present (albeit with questions over his health). I really like El Fabiolo for a novice chase but am worried about which one he will end up in.

Always a risk these days, with that mid trip race.

I think Three Stripe Life will go to the Turners.

For Willie, he probably has Sir G, Kilcruit, El Fab, Dysart Dynamo, already, for Arkle and Turners potential.

Minella Cocooner is also a Turners possible, if The Nice Guy proves very good over 3M.

I prefer El Fab as the least experienced horse, that has done as much as the rest already, from a ratings perspective, over hurdles.
He is also only 5, Dysart 6, Kilcruit 7 and Sir G 7.

If any of them can improve more for a fence, I would choose the younger horse.
The best of them will probably stay over 2M and head to the Arkle.
The rest would fit in around that.

[The Giant Bolster]

Always a risk these days, with that mid trip race.

I think Three Stripe Life will go to the Turners.

For Willie, he probably has Sir G, Kilcruit, El Fab, Dysart Dynamo, already, for Arkle and Turners potential.

Minella Cocooner is also a Turners possible, if The Nice Guy proves very good over 3M.

I prefer El Fab as the least experienced horse, that has done as much as the rest already, from a ratings perspective, over hurdles.
He is also only 5, Dysart 6, Kilcruit 7 and Sir G 7.

If any of them can improve more for a fence, I would choose the younger horse.
The best of them will probably stay over 2M and head to the Arkle.
The rest would fit in around that.

It's a really good point on age. Sir Gerhard's age does put him more in the profile of Arkle runners that had two seasons over hurdles and they definitely do not always improve at the same rate. El Fabiolo will end the season rated 150 over hurdles and Sir Gerhard 155. It's definitely not a huge gap and these are ratings that put them in the top bracket of recent Arkle runners. It will be fascinating to see how they improve relatively speaking for fences (if Sir Gerhard goes over fences).

[HoldenTheReins]

Yes, I asked them to quote

20/1 with 365

[Saxon Warrior]

20/1 with 365

Thats getting a bit better.
Pity I cant use them.