‘Win Today & Cheltenham 2023’

[Odin]

Totally agree.
The only case I can make for Gold Cup horses not called A Plus Tard are Conflated and Stattler and only because of their unexposed status, ability to improve and current prices…

I assume GDC would be in that category but for the price? Would there be any others?

[Stormez]

I assume GDC would be in that category but for the price? Would there be any others?

Bob Olinger if he wins impressively over 3m at Punchestown?

[Odin]

Bob Olinger if he wins impressively over 3m at Punchestown?

Not for me this year. You can't be a speed horse all season and last season and suddenly become a good stayer as well (or it rarely happens anyway). Think he's Ryanair this year (2023), then maybe Gold Cup 2024. I reserve the right to change that opinion though obviously

[Craigy14]

Not for me this year. You can't be a speed horse all season and last season and suddenly become a good stayer as well (or it rarely happens anyway). Think he's Ryanair this year (2023), then maybe Gold Cup 2024. I reserve the right to change that opinion though obviously

He has plenty speed but remember, he bolted through the line in the Ballymore a year ago so stamina wouldn’t be a concern imo. GDC has shown plenty speed over the 2m4/5f trip and he’s bolted through the line 3/4 starts over fences. Punchestown obviously tell us more but it’s only an extra 3f of the Ballymore or 4f of the Turners (where he wasn’t right).

[Odin]

He has plenty speed but remember, he bolted through the line in the Ballymore a year ago so stamina wouldn’t be a concern imo. GDC has shown plenty speed over the 2m4/5f trip and he’s bolted through the line 3/4 starts over fences. Punchestown obviously tell us more but it’s only an extra 3f of the Ballymore or 4f of the Turners (where he wasn’t right).

Yep, Turners doesn't count as far as I'm concerned either.

I sometimes think that I give too much credit to trainer comments, but I don't think HDB was trying to put us away when he said Bob was 'speed' and JWM was 'stamina/galloper', irrespective of the current lack of substance to JWMs form. I think Bob could go close in Xmas 3miler or King George where stamina is less of a premium, but the extra 2.5 furlongs of Gold Cup may need another year of physical development - similar to how it proved for A Plus Tard (Novices Handiap Chase, Ryanair, Gold Cup, Gold Cup last four years).

[Eggs]

….Sky;

The Devilscoschman; Punchestown Champion Stayers & Festival Stayers 80-1.

[Exar Essay]

….Sky;

The Devilscoschman; Punchestown Champion Stayers & Festival Stayers 80-1.

Thanks eggs! Looks good to me. 6/1 for Punchestown… if he wins he’s unlikely to be double figures for Chelts in my view.

[Stormez]

….Sky;

The Devilscoschman; Punchestown Champion Stayers & Festival Stayers 80-1.

Think I’ll have a go at that, thanks eggs.

[Craigy14]

Yep, Turners doesn't count as far as I'm concerned either.

I sometimes think that I give too much credit to trainer comments, but I don't think HDB was trying to put us away when he said Bob was 'speed' and JWM was 'stamina/galloper', irrespective of the current lack of substance to JWMs form. I think Bob could go close in Xmas 3miler or King George where stamina is less of a premium, but the extra 2.5 furlongs of Gold Cup may need another year of physical development - similar to how it proved for A Plus Tard (Novices Handiap Chase, Ryanair, Gold Cup, Gold Cup last four years).

Aye I see your point Odin, Imperial Commander did the same as an 8yo Ryanair and 9yo Gold Cup.

Hope he runs at Punchestown next week

[Istabraq]

I assume GDC would be in that category but for the price? Would there be any others?

Yes sorry Odin, at the prices Conflated and Stattler are the only two I can make a case for, of course GDC has a serious chance but there’s no value in him now whatsoever.
Bob Olinger has been mentioned, I backed him at 20/1 in January (for 2023 Gold Cup) and thought I was being smart, he halved in price pre Turners and was then available at 40/1 so not so smart, it’s hard to see him finishing in front of GDC again.
I really am strong on Conflated and think he only enhanced his chances with his Aintree performance, but if the same A Plus Tard shows up in 47 weeks and GDC proves himself as good as we all think then third may well be the best spot Conflated can claim.
40/1 though, not 7/2…

[Odin]

Yes sorry Odin, at the prices Conflated and Stattler are the only two I can make a case for, of course GDC has a serious chance but there’s no value in him now whatsoever.
Bob Olinger has been mentioned, I backed him at 20/1 in January (for 2023 Gold Cup) and thought I was being smart, he halved in price pre Turners and was then available at 40/1 so not so smart, it’s hard to see him finishing in front of GDC again.
I really am strong on Conflated and think he only enhanced his chances with his Aintree performance, but if the same A Plus Tard shows up in 47 weeks and GDC proves himself as good as we all think then third may well be the best spot Conflated can claim.
40/1 though, not 7/2…

Yeah, I've noticed your comments on Conflated so trying to find a way to get him covered. 8/1 place is extremely good value as you say so just a case of finding a way to utilise that because the single doesn't entice me too much given the probable APT/GDC opposition..

[Odin]

….Sky;

The Devilscoschman; Punchestown Champion Stayers & Festival Stayers 80-1.

A note for this one as I've finally got around to checking my facts. I liked the look of it originally, but TDC was pulled out of his engagement last week because of going and hasn't race on any ground with good in the description since his debut bumper. I don't actually know predicted ground at Punchestown, but given Sky have gone full antepost with these types of bets, it's causing me to hang back

[Eggs]

….Sky;

The Devilscoschman; Punchestown Champion Stayers & Festival Stayers 80-1.

….Sky have added same race double;

Klassical Dream @ 20-1

(Note - KD 18-1 with 365 for Stayers).

[Eggs]

….to summarise the current Sky offers ahead of Punchestown;

Honeysuckle - & CH 7/2; Punch CH, Leop CH, CH 8-1
Sir G - Bective Stud Champion Nov Hrd & any novice Chase 6-1
Klassical Dream - Punch Stayers & Stayers 20-1
Allaho - Punch GC & GC 25-1
Galvin - Punch GC & GC 66-1
Thedevilscoachman - Punch Stayers & Stayers 80-1

I expect Sky will soon have a specific section with Punchestown/Festival offers & we’ll see a number from Hills and possibly PP.

[Exar Essay]

Eggs Thanks for posting. That SG would be really interesting if it extended to the CH. Hopefully they do something that covers all Chelts races.