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Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

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  • Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
    I'm still not convinced how great a lot of those bets actually are to be honest, as much as they may look fancy now.

    What price was FV to win the Supreme immediately after the Bumper?

    Lovely tickets to be sitting on right now of course but are they actually any better than the rolling singles would've been?
    4-1 I reckon.
    But I agree on the whole.
    Like most odds available, it's getting the ones that are value.

    I think the 66's and 150s was before he even ran in a bumper or after his debut maybe ?? but I think before he ran in public.

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    • Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
      I'm still not convinced how great a lot of those bets actually are to be honest, as much as they may look fancy now.

      What price was FV to win the Supreme immediately after the Bumper?

      Lovely tickets to be sitting on right now of course but are they actually any better than the rolling singles would've been?

      ….more appropriate was his price to win a/r after he won CB. His CB SP was 15/8, I expect he was quite short to win a/r even before he won in March.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Eggs View Post


        ….more appropriate was his price to win a/r after he won CB. His CB SP was 15/8, I expect he was quite short to win a/r even before he won in March.

        I still don't see it I'm afraid. Depending at what point that 66s any race was. I'm going to assume before his bumper debut, as above. In which case I still don't make it great value.

        I remember him being highlighted on her at least 25/1 just for the bumper.

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        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

          4-1 I reckon.
          But I agree on the whole.
          Like most odds available, it's getting the ones that are value.

          I think the 66's and 150s was before he even ran in a bumper or after his debut maybe ?? but I think before he ran in public.
          I placed the Bumper/Supreme 150/1 RAB on 20th Dec, so you're correct. There was a hell of a lot of hype around for him at the time and for once it was well warranted.

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          • Adelphi Vega is 14s for the Mares Novices (shocking price), seen on social media that this is Mullins horse by Quevega, anyone able to confirm?

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            • Originally posted by Lbur4288 View Post
              Adelphi Vega is 14s for the Mares Novices (shocking price), seen on social media that this is Mullins horse by Quevega, anyone able to confirm?
              The last Filly out of Quevega didn't do so well. Admittedly this one is by Walk In The Park, but still!

              I think I'll give her a miss, for any race, at this present time, especially with prices like that available.
              Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 27 September 2022, 06:36 PM.

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              • Originally posted by Lbur4288 View Post
                Adelphi Vega is 14s for the Mares Novices (shocking price), seen on social media that this is Mullins horse by Quevega, anyone able to confirm?
                Champion Bumper for her surely if that is she.

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                • Originally posted by Lbur4288 View Post
                  Adelphi Vega is 14s for the Mares Novices (shocking price), seen on social media that this is Mullins horse by Quevega, anyone able to confirm?
                  Out of curiosity, have you got a link to the tweet? General feeling was that they won't name her until she's close to being ready to run.

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                  • Originally posted by RoadToCheltenham View Post

                    Out of curiosity, have you got a link to the tweet? General feeling was that they won't name her until she's close to being ready to run.
                    yeah I thought same.
                    Some random names priced up by skybet also !!!

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                    • Originally posted by RoadToCheltenham View Post

                      Out of curiosity, have you got a link to the tweet? General feeling was that they won't name her until she's close to being ready to run.


                      I know nothing of this guy or how credible he is, I actually had to check the MNH market on Sky because I thought it was a joke at first but lo and behold Adelphi Vega is priced up so I thought I'd see if anyone could shed any light on it. I appreciate the tweet seems more in jest but the market entry got me curious, not that I'll play the price.

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                      • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                        Champion Bumper for her surely if that is she.
                        I think I'll hold my bullets for now. I'm one of those who will look at the P2P runs etc and back a horse but I can't help but feel that everyone is expecting a mass production line of Facile Vega clones and we all know how the game works. Until I see a run and/or something else to encourage me to part with my cash...

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                        • Originally posted by Benjy23 View Post
                          I'm still not convinced how great a lot of those bets actually are to be honest, as much as they may look fancy now.

                          What price was FV to win the Supreme immediately after the Bumper?

                          Lovely tickets to be sitting on right now of course but are they actually any better than the rolling singles would've been?

                          Running with the 80/1... I'd guess he was 16s for the bumper at the time (as an absolute minimum). So you'd need him 7/2 or below for the Supreme. It's probably about right isn't it. But not any real great value above separating the bets like.

                          ​​​​​​
                          I recall the Shiskin/Envoi Allen win novice/championship race doubles....little did I know EA would actually outperform Shishkin in the CC

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                          • Has anyone heard any news on one of Dan Skeltons P2P purchases 'Ittack Blue'? It was one of the P2P purchases that caught my eye early with his P2P footage and the way he quickens up to put the race to bed and win by 16 lenghts was unbelievable. Seems to have all gone quiet and after a quick scan cant seem to find anything?

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                            • Originally posted by BarrowNH01 View Post
                              Has anyone heard any news on one of Dan Skeltons P2P purchases 'Ittack Blue'? It was one of the P2P purchases that caught my eye early with his P2P footage and the way he quickens up to put the race to bed and win by 16 lenghts was unbelievable. Seems to have all gone quiet and after a quick scan cant seem to find anything?
                              One of the 'top 40 prospects' in this seasons OJA. Seem to think chasing will be where he is most likely to shine. In Dans section he says they're going to take their time with him, very excited about him but not going to ask too much of him this season as they "want him to last". Could make his debut in the 2m novice at the Newbury winter festival.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

                                One of the 'top 40 prospects' in this seasons OJA. Seem to think chasing will be where he is most likely to shine. In Dans section he says they're going to take their time with him, very excited about him but not going to ask too much of him this season as they "want him to last". Could make his debut in the 2m novice at the Newbury winter festival.
                                That stinks of skipping Cheltenham

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