Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Ice]

…I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.

I've been on him the last two festivals and couldn't handle a third year of doing my dough on him, i do like the horse though but agree with kauto.

[Lobos]

…I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.

At double that price the Arkle winner is definitely the forgotten horse. 16/1 is an incredible price imo especially with the Arkle winners record in the following years Champion Chase which trumps every stat there is.

[Zachx02]

Just can't touch edwardstone at all, albeit I did lose out by not covering for the arkle for him to win a champion chase it would have to go like the one PTKO won as he just seems to always be hovering in the mid 160s on RPRs

[BarrowNH01]

Id rather Ferny won the CC at 8/1 untouched by me than run the risk of losing out for the 3rd year in a row.

[FinalFurlong91]

Id rather Ferny won the CC at 8/1 untouched by me than run the risk of losing out for the 3rd year in a row.

8/1 nrnb is a solid price

He should be double that without that concession

[Lobos]

Just can't touch edwardstone at all, albeit I did lose out by not covering for the arkle for him to win a champion chase it would have to go like the one PTKO won as he just seems to always be hovering in the mid 160s on RPRs

I was against him for the Arkle all season but he destroyed them with ease. This year's Champion Chase completely fell apart so next year's might not be up to the normal standards. He has every chance.

[FinalFurlong91]

I was against him for the Arkle all season but he destroyed them with ease. This year's Champion Chase completely fell apart so next year's might not be up to the normal standards. He has every chance.

He'd have to improve a good bit to dethrone Energumene, he's 161 the champ 176

I'm not sure he has anything like the latent ability of him or Shiskin (god knows what will happen to him)

Or even ferny hollow

If Alan King places him well I could see him picking up a weak grade 1 in Britain somewhere else though especially if henderson cant get shiskin back to himself. So he may well go off shorter than he is now.

[Kautostar]

He'd have to improve a good bit to dethrone Energumene, he's 161 the champ 176

I'm not sure he has anything like the latent ability of him or Shiskin (god knows what will happen to him)

Or even ferny hollow

If Alan King places him well I could see him picking up a weak grade 1 in Britain somewhere else though especially if henderson cant get shiskin back to himself. So he may well go off shorter than he is now.

I agree with all of that. I actually think shishkin could be the value here but only after stable tours or an entry. I think hendo will bring him along slowly and won’t be trading blows with Willie Mullins around ascot again this time.
Edwardstone will pick up easy graded races that shishkin doesn’t run in so I agree he will shorten to a degree but can’t have him winning the champion chase unless it really cuts up.

[BigChaang]

For what it's worth , I think that Edwardstone @ 16-1 is worth taking for the champion chase .
And i have.
A race that hasn't always lived up to expectations ,
there's been some ' odd ' results in the past few years. The fav's not always doing so well.
I would imagine Edwardstone will run at Kempton again after christmas, and if winning,.
in a similar style to last time , his price will tumble . i.m.o.

[Bonjers]

Edwardstone will surely go Tingle Creek v Greaneteen, who is a solid 165 horse around there and will be primed for it. I can easily see Shishkin being put away until the Game Spirit.

[Lobos]

With huge doubts surrounding both Ferney and Shishkin you would think Energumene is the one to beat but he had it all his own way this year including when the heavens opened which suited him enormously.
Edwardstone does have to improve again in ratings but the gap will naturally close when he goes into open company this season as with most impressive Arkle winners. 16/1 could look an absolute gem come next March. He shouldn't be that price.

[FinalFurlong91]

Is the gap definitely going to close?

Edwardstone and Energumene are the same age and they've both had 8 chase starts

I can see the angle on taking the 16/1 in Sep/October as he could go off half that come march if well placed by king

i think energumene would have to not turn up for him to actually win though

[Lobos]

Can't say definitely but should he go for and win/run close in a Tingle Creek then his rating will shoot up. At this stage I'd also say Energumene is the winner but the bookmakers aren't taking chances with his price whereas with Edwardstone they certainly are imo. At this stage I'd go as far to say he's the best EW value there is among all the Championship races.

[Craigy14]

I would have to wonder what improvement Edwardstone will have now.

Yes going into open company may find some, but he’s not like a 6/7 year old going open company, he’s 8 going 9 for Cheltenham. I know shishkin had his issue at Cheltenham and we’ll need to see how he returns but if you were to ask me between those 2 edwardstone isn’t even in the same street as shishkin! Then add in Energumene to the mix. It was a very poor 2m novice chase division in the end with the loss of 2 of WPM’s main fancies. Not taking away from edwardstones Arkle win of course but I’d rather back him on the day at likely 8/1 if shishkin and energumene rock up than waste points at 16/1 imo.

[Many Clouds]

If people are fancying Edwardstone that much, surely Gentleman De Mee has to come into your thinking, after putting Edwardstone away comfortably at Aintree as a 6 year old, there should be plenty of room for improvement and available at 14/1.