Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Lobos]

So, so difficult for 5 year olds over jumps. Almost impossible for them to mix it with the big boys/girls. Mullins is completely aware of that which is why a flat campaign has been mentioned. He's classy enough and speedy enough to do well in that sphere. Could easily revert to hurdles the following season when there is no Honeysuckle to beat. That's my thinking anyway.

[darlojim]

So, so difficult for 5 year olds over jumps. Almost impossible for them to mix it with the big boys/girls. Mullins is completely aware of that which is why a flat campaign has been mentioned. He's classy enough and speedy enough to do well in that sphere. Could easily revert to hurdles the following season when there is no Honeysuckle to beat. That's my thinking anyway.

He's already said the flat campaign wont be this year and talk of melbourne cup is further down the line. He definitely sees this lad as someone who has the potential to make a mark in his 5yo season.

[Stormez]

Just Noticed Sky have Gaillard Du Mesnil 6/1 for the NH Chase but 7/1 TWAR.

Neither a great price but going to Chuck him in a roll up anyway as I missed the nice prices on him.

[Pendil1111]

Yes - as we are now, I would agree with all of those in terms of targets

Long way to go before I decide if they are my best picks in each race though. Mares Hurdle in particular is starting to look a lot more stacked next year than it was this year!

Yes of course and the champion hurdle I think will be depending on Constitution Hill's progress next season ?

[Exar Essay]

Scratch that - suggested Gallyhill for the NHC not realising he’d lost his novice tag today.

[Istabraq]

Scratch that - suggested Gallyhill for the NHC not realising he’d lost his novice tag today.

Has the season not ended and a new one begun ?

[Exar Essay]

Has the season not ended and a new one begun ?

Ooooo … I hadn’t thought of that. I’m not really sure when the season ends/starts tbh.

Edit: BHA state:

Jump Season is the season which begins on the day after the Sandown Park Gold Cup and ends on the day of the Sandown Park Gold Cup in the following year;

And HRI states that their season starts today.

So looks like you’re right! Gallyhill is a novice this year.

My case was he’ll be a second season novice for Gordon who was always touted as wanting the longer trip. And that his OR was surprisingly high (140) for some pretty terrible showings for Nicky which wouldn’t suggest a handicap purchase.

[Bonjers]

He wasn't bought out of Nicky's yard, the owner has just sent him there. Fils D'oudaries went the other way earlier in the year.

[Odin]

Yes of course and the champion hurdle I think will be depending on Constitution Hill's progress next season ?

CH is the obvious one, and I expect it to be between him and Honey, but any of the Mullins battalion could progress into worthy contenders next year (State Man if brushes up jumping, Vauban or SG if Punchestown was just a Punchestown thing). I keep looking back to last year and thinking how easy it would have seemed compared to this year with Appreciate It, Blue Lord, Bob, Gaillard and Bravemansgame all going chasing or unfit. Can't believe I didn't hammer Honeysuckle more - she was a banker from a year out.

Allaho looks like this year's banker, but not sure that's stating anything that anyone didn't know!

[nortonscoin200]

Allaho looks like this year's banker, but not sure that's stating anything that anyone didn't know!

But can you be absolutely certain he wont turn up in the Gold Cup?

I don't think so.

I'd say it's probably 70-30 in favour of the Ryanair at the moment.

But if A Plus Tard fails to make it to Cheltenham or loses form it would probably be 70-30 the other way.

So even Allaho is less of a banker this year than last year imo.

Sorry to sound so negative Odin.

I don't really like four-horse multiples but Sky's RAB taking Allaho, Facile Vega, Delta Work and Flooring Porter TWAR at 66-1 strikes me as a better bet than Allaho to win the Ryanair at a shade under 2-1.

[Odin]

But can you be absolutely certain he wont turn up in the Gold Cup?

Nothing wrong with seeming negative or pessimistic mate, I'm all for the discussion. After this year's shenanigans, I wouldn't be certain about most things happening. However, I would rather take the 15/8 about the Ryanair than 5/4 any race on the basis that I don't think he would win a Gold Cup as I don't think he stays well enough. That is, I think he stays, but not as well as others do so in my head the 5/4 would be a loser if he went to the Gold Cup anyway. At around 13/8 vs 5/4 like Sky currently have it's would be a bit more of a question as there's less value (maybe the wrong word?!) in the Ryanair price.

In terms of the fourfold, I see where you're coming from but 66/1 that four horses turn up and win their respective races is difficult for me to get on board with at this point given I don't think Allaho stays Gold Cup distance well enough so could be a loser if going to 'wrong' race and we have no idea what's going to emerge to take on FV or how he will take to hurdles. Delta Work (hopefully) and Flooring Porter (definitely) are more solid in their targets but still have potential contenders - I still think Klassical Dream has more to offer against FP and Prengarde (if he really had a chance of beating Tiger) has a chance of beating Delta Work so there's question marks everywhere. That's part of the fun at this point, but it's a lot more fun when the prices are more attractive. The positive side of things this time is that we can use any race in multiples/roll ups... I've just gotta find some winners on the flat to be able to do that now!

EDIT - another drawback with the Allaho Gold Cup bet is that you're a) betting he's good enough to win it and b) betting that another horse drops out of form who's showed no tendency to do that in the last few years

[Pendil1111]

CH is the obvious one, and I expect it to be between him and Honey, but any of the Mullins battalion could progress into worthy contenders next year (State Man if brushes up jumping, Vauban or SG if Punchestown was just a Punchestown thing). I keep looking back to last year and thinking how easy it would have seemed compared to this year with Appreciate It, Blue Lord, Bob, Gaillard and Bravemansgame all going chasing or unfit. Can't believe I didn't hammer Honeysuckle more - she was a banker from a year out.

Allaho looks like this year's banker, but not sure that's stating anything that anyone didn't know!

Honeysuckle for the last two seasons has been my banker and I had her in everything until going odds on.......Allaho for ????

[Istabraq]

but any of the Mullins battalion could progress into worthy contenders next year

I was particularly taken with Mullins comments before and after State Man’s run at Punchestown, he rarely uses language like ‘he’s pretty good isn’t he’.
No value right now but he could well turn out to be the one who finally lowers Honeysuckle’s colours….

[Odin]

Honeysuckle for the last two seasons has been my banker and I had her in everything until going odds on.......Allaho for ????

The benefit of antepost experience there. My first year doing it properly said 2/1 and 7/2 were poor odds 12 months out, failing to accept that 2/1 about a 2/5 shot is pretty sensationally really, likewise 7/2 about 4/7 in Allaho.

Allaho for Ryanair is my thought as things stand - see post above in response to Nortonscoin

[Odin]

I was particularly taken with Mullins comments before and after State Man’s run at Punchestown, he rarely uses language like ‘he’s pretty good isn’t he’.
No value right now but he could well turn out to be the one who finally lowers Honeysuckle’s colours….

Yeah I noticed that and also noticed what he said about Vauban - 'he's not just one of these juveniles who can win a Triumph then do nothing, I've got serious hopes for this guy' (or words to that effect). I really hope it's a race that lives up to its billing