Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Exar Essay]

Exactly this. And when he was beaten by Klassical Dream at Leopardstown he couldn't either because he was having to keep tabs.

Trainers now know exactly how to get him beat if they've got one good enough. For example Willie can run a second horse in a race now to make him keep working in the lead, rather than get a breather.- It makes Klassical Dream a huge price. We've seen already if he's fresh he can beat Flooring Porter. He's done it twice, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that he will run at the DRF and Cheltenham and nothing inbetween.

Do you mean the Christmas Hurdle, Spectre? i.e. what he did this year but without Gowran in between which Willie admitted was a mistake. I'd be worried that the 6-week turnaround between the DRF and Chelts isn't enough for him these days.

[Istabraq]

Exactly this. And when he was beaten by Klassical Dream at Leopardstown he couldn't either because he was having to keep tabs.

Trainers now know exactly how to get him beat if they've got one good enough. For example Willie can run a second horse in a race now to make him keep working in the lead, rather than get a breather.- It makes Klassical Dream a huge price. We've seen already if he's fresh he can beat Flooring Porter. He's done it twice, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that he will run at the DRF and Cheltenham and nothing inbetween.

That's not how SDB beat him though Spectre.
Did his Stayers win leave a mark ? No question Thyme Hill and Champ underperformed at Aintree so it's possible...

[Nwfb89]

Exactly this. And when he was beaten by Klassical Dream at Leopardstown he couldn't either because he was having to keep tabs.

Trainers now know exactly how to get him beat if they've got one good enough. For example Willie can run a second horse in a race now to make him keep working in the lead, rather than get a breather.- It makes Klassical Dream a huge price. We've seen already if he's fresh he can beat Flooring Porter. He's done it twice, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that he will run at the DRF and Cheltenham and nothing inbetween.

Absolutely crazy of them to run him in that galmoy hurdle looking back now

[Spectre]

Do you mean the Christmas Hurdle, Spectre? i.e. what he did this year but without Gowran in between which Willie admitted was a mistake. I'd be worried that the 6-week turnaround between the DRF and Chelts isn't enough for him these days.

Yes I did. Thanks Exar Essay.

[Spectre]

That's not how SDB beat him though Spectre.
Did his Stayers win leave a mark ? No question Thyme Hill and Champ underperformed at Aintree so it's possible...

It was kind of the same thing though. Mark Walsh pushed Sire De Berlais up onto Flooring Porter's quarter's and didn't allow him to fill his lings up before going again. Klassical Dream did that same thing from the front.

Flooring Porter needs them off the bridle with a bit of daylight that then allows him to set an easy fraction before going again for home. For slightly different reasons, in neither race where he was turned over this season could he do that. I don't believe it's coincidence.

[Istabraq]

It was kind of the same thing though. Mark Walsh pushed Sire De Berlais up onto Flooring Porter's quarter's and didn't allow him to fill his lings up before going again. Klassical Dream did that same thing from the front.

Flooring Porter needs them off the bridle with a bit of daylight that then allows him to set an easy fraction before going again for home. For slightly different reasons, in neither race where he was turned over this season could he do that. I don't believe it's coincidence.

Do you think ground could have been a factor at Aintree ?
I thought SDB jumped and travelled beautifully and if holding his form next season and encountering similar ground he would have to be a runner for me, even at 11…

[FinalFurlong91]

Do you think ground could have been a factor at Aintree ?
I thought SDB jumped and travelled beautifully and if holding his form next season and encountering similar ground he would have to be a runner for me, even at 11…

I feel like last week was the exception not the rule for SDB

[Spectre]

Do you think ground could have been a factor at Aintree ?
I thought SDB jumped and travelled beautifully and if holding his form next season and encountering similar ground he would have to be a runner for me, even at 11…

It's possible, but FP appears to be pretty versatile, and the times on the Thursday at the Festival were quick enough.

I think Sire de Berlais is just a very good horse to be honest. We haven't seen the best of him this season because he was campaigned to get his mark down for the Pertemps. As a consequence he may have gone to Cheltenham not as sharp as he could have been. But it also means he's not a had a hard season, and he was bouncing when he beat Flooring Porter.

I also don't think it's coincidence that a lot of Elliott's horses under-performed at the Festival, but pretty much all ran good races at Aintree. I think several have maybe come to hand two or three weeks too late for him.

[Istabraq]

I feel like last week was the exception not the rule for SDB

Agree, his beating of The Storyteller in the Pertemps he was on and off the bridle throughout and still won, Saturday he travelled well and went past the duel staying champion, makes him a very good/versatile horse though.
I think there's something in Spectre comment re Elliott horses and something he will no doubt look closely at for next year and I deserve to be shot down for taking a fairly strong view on an 11yo but I'm happy pressing SDB at 33s, and just have...

[DenmanSacre]

I'll be surprised if they go down the bumper route next season aged 6 anyway. They may skip bumpers and go straight over hurdles, but, as you note, his p2p form is really stacking up, and it's worth remembering how far he beat them all by in that p2p too.

Yeah I'd say there is no chance he has a bumper campaign next season.

Does Henry have many of his skip a bumper and put straight into hurdles? Not thought about that as an option but it would mean his price would hold over the summer.

[Sprinter Sacre]

Deeply Superficial has an entry for Gordon on Saturday at Fairyhouse in a mares flat race. Might be worth getting priced up for the novice's hurdle next March?

[HoldenTheReins]

Deeply Superficial has an entry for Gordon on Saturday at Fairyhouse in a mares' flat race. Might be worth getting priced up for the novice's hurdle next March?

Absolutely

[Sprinter Sacre]

Another entry for Jet Powered next Monday at Huntingdon.

[Eggs]

Deeply Superficial has an entry for Gordon on Saturday at Fairyhouse in a mares flat race. Might be worth getting priced up for the novice's hurdle next March?

…..16-1 from 25-1 Sky.

[JackieMoon33]

Deeply Superficial has an entry for Gordon on Saturday at Fairyhouse in a mares flat race. Might be worth getting priced up for the novice's hurdle next March?

I’m still of the opinion that the PTP mares are not the way forward for the Mares Novices Hurdle, particularly one with that page. That’s not to say they won’t be good horses in the future but, I’m not convinced they’re the right material for that race.