Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[BigChaang]

Anyone considering backing gelino bello for next years festival, harry Cobden was on luck on Sunday saying they’ll aim for aintree over fences next season.

I don’t think you can back any nicholls horse ante post for next years festival no matter how good they might be.

Definitely risky , backing a Nicholls horse antepost for Cheltenham .

[FinalFurlong91]

Anyone considering backing gelino bello for next years festival, harry Cobden was on luck on Sunday saying they’ll aim for aintree over fences next season.

I don’t think you can back any nicholls horse ante post for next years festival no matter how good they might be.

The horse to consider backing really is blazing khal as he made gelino bello look pedestrian

The injury would be the worry though antepost

[MTR]

The horse to consider backing really is blazing khal as he made gelino bello look pedestrian

The injury would be the worry though antepost

Defo one I’d be interested in, not sure if he’s planning to run at punchestown? Or is he out for the season?

[DenmanSacre]

3rd from An Tobar's PTP won today on his 2nd start, beating a full brother to West Balboa by 8l.

Thats now the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from his PTP winning since.

33s with PP and Betfair for the Ballymore. Let's hope we see him in a decent bumper before the end of the season.

[BigChaang]

3rd from An Tobar's PTP won today on his 2nd start, beating a full brother to West Balboa by 8l.

Thats now the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from his PTP winning since.

33s with PP and Betfair for the Ballymore. Let's hope we see him in a decent bumper before the end of the season.

Where do You think An Tobar will run Denman S. ??. ( at the festival )

[ComplyOrDie]

3rd from An Tobar's PTP won today on his 2nd start, beating a full brother to West Balboa by 8l.

Thats now the 2nd, 3rd and 4th from his PTP winning since.

33s with PP and Betfair for the Ballymore. Let's hope we see him in a decent bumper before the end of the season.

I'll be surprised if they go down the bumper route next season aged 6 anyway. They may skip bumpers and go straight over hurdles, but, as you note, his p2p form is really stacking up, and it's worth remembering how far he beat them all by in that p2p too.

[FinalFurlong91]

With the news about shiskin and edwardstone getting beat reinvested the Collin Morikawa place returns in 4 or 5 doubles all featuring Energumene at 3/1

Not a great price but I'd probably only fritter it away on the champions league so seems a better investment

[Ice]

I think flooring porter is a good price now, I thought 5/1 was decent but 7/1 after he got beat on Saturday looks worth a dabble to me.

[Istabraq]

I think flooring porter is a good price now, I thought 5/1 was decent but 7/1 after he got beat on Saturday looks worth a dabble to me.

Don’t disagree Ice, though I would be a little concerned that he got picked up by a much older horse and didn’t have the speed to get back up.
The likes of Flooring Porter, A Plus Tard, Elimay all got pushed out significantly after defeats before winning at Cheltenham so looks like bookies (generally) aren’t overreacting as much with FP…

[knockando]

I have started backing a few horses but there's nothing I am currently massively keen on right now.

The prices of Shishkin & Flooring Porter look obvious plays to me in their respective races, although forgiveness for Shishkin is required, and you'd need to believe the ground excuse (I do), as it was just too bad a run, and we know he's a whole lot better than that.

Journey With Me for the Brown Advisory would be my bet in that race currently, but wouldn't be an overly strong opinion.

Not a clue on the novice hurdlers yet. An absolute ton of potentials from the p2p sphere, who haven't even run in bumpers yet, that could surface, not to mention the French imports. That 3/1 about Facile Vega is ridiculous, even sticking it in a multiple. Admittedly I had a small bet on Mercurey before his second bumper run, which is looking horrendous now, all things considered, however I'm hoping I'll be able to get out the bet when he's entered up over hurdles next season, so retain that bet for now.

Novice chasers are generally the same as the novice hurdlers, although the fact they ran Journey With Me at the incorrect trip tells me they probably didn't want to bottom him out before going over the right trip over fences. I assume all is well with him after his fall in the Ballymore, and I don't expect to see him turn up at Punchestown either. I've started backing a few of the Mullins lot with free bets for now, but that's about it. I wouldn't be half confident, especially after what he done with Galopin this season, about where any of them will turn up next season.

I think Constitution Hill wins the Champion Hurdle, provided he stays sound and they go this route. He'll be my main focus for a lot of early bets. I was mad keen on him before the Supreme, I'm even keener now. Although, I did always think he'd go novice chasing, so I backed him for the Arkle before the Supreme & also with a few free bets, so that's a bit of a gutter.

I think Allaho is short enough, and what I do with him will likely depend on Galopin Des Champs and possibly also Monkfish.

A Plus Tard will have to be covered. Super impressive this season. 9/2 is fair. He'll be going into some multiples.

Not much else to report other than a huge list, as per normal, of potential novice hurdlers, that I'll probably struggle to whittle down. Hopefully we'll see a few in some bumpers sooner rather than later.

Agree with this entirely - by this point last year, my single bets were a lot more extensive. I literally have just the one on Constitution Hill at the moment. In the most part, I just look at the prices and think the majority are appalling.

There's also part of me which is still not over the Galopin des Champs reroute this year, so just steering clear a bit on that front with Mullins novices.

Flooring Porter I was mad keen on this Festival but at the prices for 2023, just not feeling it at the moment even with the drift following this weekend. Allaho - do I want to be taking 9/4 a year out? Absolutely not.

Others worthy of a mention, I'm not altogether convinced with The Nice Guy, will be happy to be proven wrong in months to come with various write ups and form lines.

I am just going to focus on a select few and start doubles and trebles, looks like will be a quieter first quarter than last year for me currently, a lot of it price related.

[Ice]

Don’t disagree Ice, though I would be a little concerned that he got picked up by a much older horse and didn’t have the speed to get back up.
The likes of Flooring Porter, A Plus Tard, Elimay all got pushed out significantly after defeats before winning at Cheltenham so looks like bookies (generally) aren’t overreacting as much with FP…

i wouldn't disagree It was a little disappointing that he couldn't get back up against sire du berlais but i'm willing to forgive Aintree form after just 3 weeks since Cheltenham and the rest were well beaten. I just looked at the betting and there's nothing in behind him in the betting that's very inspiring either !

[Istabraq]

i wouldn't disagree It was a little disappointing that he couldn't get back up against sire du berlais but i'm willing to forgive Aintree form after just 3 weeks since Cheltenham and the rest were well beaten. I just looked at the betting and there's nothing in behind him in the betting that's very inspiring either !

They certainly pulled well clear.
I think that confirms SDB is an exceptional horse to have held his form over so many seasons.
That win probably ends any hope of another Pertemps bid though…

[Ice]

They certainly pulled well clear.
I think that confirms SDB is an exceptional horse to have held his form over so many seasons.
That win probably ends any hope of another Pertemps bid though…

Without a doubt, he must be a great horse to own, one i just never seem to get right though !

[Istabraq]

Without a doubt, he must be a great horse to own, one i just never seem to get right though !

I saw he was given an RPR of 165, his highest ever rating, which I think is about right, and that's some effort to put up your best ever performance as a 10yo.
What would concern me more about the race is how the rest fell away so tamely, the 3rd/4th/5th had only had 10 runs between them all season so none were over the top.
Could SDB just be one of those freak racehorses who hold their form into old age ? And if so is he a runner for the Stayers at 33s ?
I'm half talking myself into a small play at 33s...

[DenmanSacre]

Where do You think An Tobar will run Denman S. ??. ( at the festival )

I'd hope the Ballymore based on what I saw in his PTP and his breeding.

40s now with Skybet for that race so I've added a bit more on that and also had a fair bit any race previously.

I do really like him - top of my list from the PTP field this season, followed by Barry the Butcher and Better Days Ahead.