Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Kevloaf]

Yeah the main appeal of James’s Gate for the Ballymore seems to be mainly linked to his owners liking a runner in the race as sponsors.

If you think that’s a good reason to back a horse then there’s not much hope for you!

That’s not to say his run in the bumper wasn’t a good one, it was & I can see him taking high order next year. But I’d want to see it first rather than take a chance now when the price has already gone.

Check the opening post in this thread.

Then check my diary and record over the last decade.

....and get back in your box


"not much hope for you"






To flesh it out with an actual response though... I haven't actually gone through and read any comments about him since, so depending on what price he actually is now, I probably do understand the point you were making.

As a book builder though (and lets face it, anyone in March 2022 for March 2023, reading this is likely thread to be at least aware of the merits of that strategy) could definitely argue that any advantage in a horse being backed at a bigger price than SP has benefit, and a hope! ....

Regarding "owners liking a runner in the race".... whilst that will never ever be a key factor, you can definitely argue it has an impact on the chances in the race. They're specifically buying certain types, trying to win their own race... and they're bothering to send those novice hurdlers to Willie Mullins. That's of some significance. On the flip side, I know personally I'd historically have not been inclined to back Gigginstown 2 milers, or Trevor Hemmings' 2 mile hurdlers...as we know they're in thre main looking for future staying chasers. Of course it doesn't mean they could never have one, it's just less likely...and I'd base that on the owners buying certain types.

Plenty of ways to go at ante post though Stormez
ComplyOrDie I see also said he thinks he's an Albert Bartlett type which is not exactly a massive difference really but so was Whatdeawant for most of us, and he still ran in the Ballymore 'wrong race' so if anything that backs up the point and angle.....and as I see Eggs has pointed out, it actually paid out this year


So in summary. Best bet of all time?

[Eggs]

Yeah the main appeal of James’s Gate for the Ballymore seems to be mainly linked to his owners liking a runner in the race as sponsors.

If you think that’s a good reason to back a horse then there’s not much hope for you!

That’s not to say his run in the bumper wasn’t a good one, it was & I can see him taking high order next year. But I’d want to see it first rather than take a chance now when the price has already gone.

….Whatdeawant was Ballymore earmarked at the start of the season for exactly the same reason, the 50-1 on offer turned out a decent e/w return on that one & I suggest James’ Gate could be a better prospect.

[archie]

It wouldn't surprise me if she's already booked in to visit Walk In The Park. Every year they race her from now is one less foal produced and a few thousand off her broodmare value.

About PTKO earlier in the week.
I didn't expect to be proved correct so soon but it's a timely warning to anyone considering backing older mares this far out. It's still early enough for a 2022 covering.

[Always a Claimer]

Just rewatched the Triumph again - whilst it was a bit of muddling pace, there are a few in behind who really catch the eye. If Vauban really is an 8/1 shot in the champion hurdle (silly antepost prices) then considering what happened in behind there should be some value and decent animals. Six in line not far from the last suggests combination of slow pace (was it slower than usual?) and/or a decent crop of 4 year olds. There is no doubt that Vauban is the classiest but I like Fil Dor who travelled well for a long way and looks like a slightly tougher test of stamina might suit. What would be the obvious Fil Dor route next year? Equally, I thought given how much of a monkey Il Etait Temps was for the first mile, and how much energy that must of drained, he was still cruising down the hill and round the final bend. I can only assume he has a decent engine and would be competitive in grade 1 company if he could settle. Supreme for him if he doesn’t win for rest of season? There is some 20s available but equally if he wins at Punchestown that blows that ticket up, so doesn’t strike me as great value. Icare Allen seemed to lack a gear but didn’t get a hard time from Walsh - it would be interesting to know how Icare Allen and Il Etait Temps work in comparison to each other and Vauban.

[Black Dog]

In reply to Archie what price the foal will be called Tea in the Park.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

About PTKO earlier in the week.
I didn't expect to be proved correct so soon but it's a timely warning to anyone considering backing older mares this far out. It's still early enough for a 2022 covering.

Hi Archie - Has there been some news? I must have missed it. Do you have a link?

ignore that. I’ve found it.

[Exar Essay]

I can’t find an actual quote, but this article suggests Mullins is aiming GDC at the 3m Novice chase at Punchestown … seems as though he might want to find out whether he could see out the GC trip …

Bob also potentially headed here according to Henry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...medium=twitter

[Always a Claimer]

I can’t find an actual quote, but this article suggests Mullins is aiming GDC at the 3m Novice chase at Punchestown … seems as though he might want to find out whether he could see out the GC trip …

Bob also potentially headed here according to Henry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...medium=twitter

Interesting. I know Henry felt there was something wrong with Bob, but if the muscle problem was that serious or that concerning he would be put away for the summer. But I suppose that could have contributed to his battle up the hill. What odds on GDC in gold cup if he is pulling 10 lengths clear by the last again?! Equally, if Bob gets pretty close the 20/1 would look good. I don’t have a quote but I seem to recall Blackmore saying he is a GC horse, she should know! Watching brief for me, it’ll be informative whatever happens

[Craigy14]

Interesting. I know Henry felt there was something wrong with Bob, but if it was serious or that concerning he would be put away for the summer. What odds on GDC in gold cup if is pulling 10 lengths clear by the last again?!

I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that. Completely different but footballers are taken off all the time as a precaution and then show up in next Saturdays starting 11. It doesn’t stop a poor performance at the time but can be something that doesn’t impact longer term.

I’m actually happy that there was a reason for his poor showing (not happy but you know what I mean), also it now not looking very serious. I think we could all see he just wasn’t the same, when Racheal asked there was no response. The jump at the 4th last could well be the likely cause of the injury, I felt he jumped ok in the main, just safe and steady up to that point.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I can’t find an actual quote, but this article suggests Mullins is aiming GDC at the 3m Novice chase at Punchestown … seems as though he might want to find out whether he could see out the GC trip …

Bob also potentially headed here according to Henry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...medium=twitter

Thanks Exar

[Ice]

I can’t find an actual quote, but this article suggests Mullins is aiming GDC at the 3m Novice chase at Punchestown … seems as though he might want to find out whether he could see out the GC trip …

Bob also potentially headed here according to Henry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...medium=twitter

That would explain the price of gdc shortening, it doesn't take a lot nowadays for prices to get a trim !

[Run4Home]

I can’t find an actual quote, but this article suggests Mullins is aiming GDC at the 3m Novice chase at Punchestown … seems as though he might want to find out whether he could see out the GC trip …

Bob also potentially headed here according to Henry.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...medium=twitter

'The obvious thing is to go to 3m next'

was his quote on GDC

Also confirmed Appreciate It goes chasing & SG 'Obvious thing is to go chasing but to me I wonder should he go Champion Hurdle'

[Stormez]

was his quote on GDC

Also confirmed Appreciate It goes chasing & SG 'Obvious thing is to go chasing but to me I wonder should he go Champion Hurdle'

So the bingo has already started with Sir G

[Ice]

So the bingo has already started with Sir G

You ain't kidding ! Didn't willie mention trying gdc at 2 miles ? He's now looking at 3 miles, definitely mullins bingo, though i wish he'd gone 3 miles at Cheltenham !

[Run4Home]

Most of the novices will always be schooled over fences later this year first before any decisons made so very early days for those yet to decide what goes chasing/hurdling next season.

With Honey still there & CH going hurdling guess could push Willie towards chasing with SG too.