Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[darlojim]

The problem this year from even this early, is that the prices are disappearing so quickly. So my personal way of making my diary is that, on ocassions, I will tend to add horses that I'm not 100% convinced on, knowing that these are likely to be cut without any appearance on the track. If you have the option of cashout, then you can use this further down the road if you change your opinion on a certain horse.

[BigChaang]

Sounds to me , like one of a few Owners , who like to dictate targets ??. I Definitely got the impression willie would have run whatdeawant in the spuds.
so although the price is poor , the target could be more certain , Does that automatically mean Embassy gardens goes Bartlett ??, .

[Zachx02]

Just thought I'd bring up Olympic Man, he's with Willie Mullins and is a French Import with the same connections as GDC, he was entered in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice over Christmas but didn't take up the entry and hasn't had a run this season. I thought they'd bring him out for 1 run this season to get him the Martin Pipe but it didn't materialise so I guess they're saving him for next season. He's currently 14/1 TWAR with Sky which I've had a go at in a successful roll up

[BigChaang]

I remember him being mentioned last year Zach .

[archie]

Only Sir Gerhard won of the fancied ones this year and he went to the 'wrong' race for us punters.

Oh no he didn't!

[Eggs]

33-1. for the supreme - paddy's. if your confident that will be the target..... An Tobar.

…I’d be more tempted with cash-out for the Ballymore, surprised he’s not appearing more widely in those markets.

[Lobos]

Oh no he didn't!

You lucky thing Arch!!

[Always a Claimer]

Any post race jockey/trainer comments on Mercurey?

[Eggs]

Any post race jockey/trainer comments on Mercurey?

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/impulsive-dancer-wins-at-limerick-and-enters-betting-for-2023-sky-bet-supreme-novices-hurdle/199551

….there’s a bit here. Mullins says the defeat wasn’t a surprise to him & Mercurey is an immature type.

[Odin]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/impulsive-dancer-wins-at-limerick-and-enters-betting-for-2023-sky-bet-supreme-novices-hurdle/199551

….there’s a bit here. Mullins says the defeat wasn’t a surprise to him & Mercurey is an immature type.

One of the interesting things about the race is that there was no real movement in the odds through the day according to HorseRaceBase.. all decimal odds below

Mercurey (PLS Open 1.36, LVS Open 1.22, SP 1.25)
Impulsive (PLS Open 4.33, LVS Open 4.5, SP 4.33)

PLS: Prelive show (I'm assuming night before), LVS: Live show (15 mins before or whatever it is these days)

I don't know if no movement is normal, but it's not like Mercurey was smashed in to me... or is 1.36 to 1.25 the same as 40s into 10s for example?

[Istabraq]

One of the interesting things about the race is that there was no real movement in the odds through the day according to HorseRaceBase.. all decimal odds below

Mercurey (PLS Open 1.36, LVS Open 1.22, SP 1.25)
Impulsive (PLS Open 4.33, LVS Open 4.5, SP 4.33)

PLS: Prelive show (I'm assuming night before), LVS: Live show (15 mins before or whatever it is these days)

I don't know if no movement is normal, but it's not like Mercurey was smashed in to me... or is 1.36 to 1.25 the same as 40s into 10s for example?

Error post

[Maxfield]

Jet Powered has an entry this weekend at Newbury. It's the same race that Jonbon won last year. Will be interesting to see if he gets declared. One for the notebook hopefully.

Glad I took the 33/1 as now into 20/1!! - although with the possibility of this being Henderson's Supreme horse that price make look decent or maybe not. Time will tell.

[fatherjohn]

Glad I took the 33/1 as now into 20/1!! - although with the possibility of this being Henderson's Supreme horse that price make look decent or maybe not. Time will tell.

Good thing about going into 20s is that if it looses it will be pushes back out to 33s so if you have cashout it's likely to be low risk...keep pushing that price in I say

[Imperial Call]

Hi Everyone,
This is my first post.
Fyi Imperial Call won the 1996 Gold Cup at 9/2, I backed it at 40/1 following a favourable comment Charlie Swan made about it on the Morning Line before it ran in the January of Gold Cup year..
I have enjoyed reading all your comments on the up and coming horses for next years Cheltenham festival.
Plenty of bits of interesting info entered into my horse tracker, thank you.
I had backed Mercurey at 16/1 win with 365 for the Supreme, cashed out re backed it 33/1 with PP ew, now I find myself wondering whether I should cash out with PP and re-bet with 365 at 50/1 ew. Still contemplating.
In the main you have been looking at novice hurdlers for next season and horses with potential to win any race.
So lets take the three big festival novices from Cheltenham 2022.
Supreme - Constitution Hill, was anyone on at a big price this time last year, the horse came to prominence in the betting Nov/Dec 21 around 10/1 which quickly disappeared, Jonbon I suspect plenty of you would have been on at some juicy odds hopefully ew.
Ballymore - Sir Gerhard, plenty of us, including myself would have been on for the Supreme odds around 5/1 this time last year and lost, maybe 8 to 10/1 for Ballymore and won.
Albert Bartlett - The Nice Guy anyone on at a big price, the horse won two races at 2m and then 2m 3f at Naas end of January, Looking back at Willie's previous recent winners Monkfish and Penhill they had both won at around 3 miles before winning the AB. Interesting to know if anyone was on at a nice price.
So back to Cheltenham 23 we are all looking for the next good thing, but 2 of the 3 big novice winners for this year only came to prominence in late 22, I may be wrong there so please correct me if I am.

Here is my Contrarian or alternative view for Cheltenham 23 compared to previous posts.
Win Trixie on horses we know and are pretty much certain they will contest Cheltenham 23.

Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle 3/1 10/3 or a little 7/2, Constitution Hill could well be an up and coming superstar, but DD and Jonbon set the Supreme up for him with the breakneck pace, so the power the horse has, was seen to great effect, I think the RPR of 172 is inflated. Can CH do it in a slowly run race, Honeysuckle can, it has done so the last few runs now, it was always thought 2m would be too short for it, the horse has adapted and I for one hope the mare can stay unbeaten until she retires.

Stayers Hurdle Flooring Porter generally 5/1, this time last year and through the course of each day prior to the win at Cheltenham this year, this horse was described as temperamental, pre race preliminaries would get to him, would bolt for the lead etc etc. Proved itself now and surely everything will be geared to winning Stayers 3 years running.

Gold Cup A Plus Tard a little 9/2 generally 4/1. Rachael has found the key to this horse and rode it perfectly to win the Gold Cup this year and for that matter the Betfair Chase. A second Gold Cup will surely be the main target.

These three horses will all be below 10 years of age at next years festival, an important point Gavin Lynch looks at and I agree with when picking selections, certainly the top graded races.

There you go, sorry for the length of this post, hope I don't get restricted for any future posts lol.

[Ice]

Hi Everyone,
This is my first post.
Fyi Imperial Call won the 1996 Gold Cup at 9/2, I backed it at 40/1 following a favourable comment Charlie Swan made about it on the Morning Line before it ran in the January of Gold Cup year..
I have enjoyed reading all your comments on the up and coming horses for next years Cheltenham festival.
Plenty of bits of interesting info entered into my horse tracker, thank you.
I had backed Mercurey at 16/1 win with 365 for the Supreme, cashed out re backed it 33/1 with PP ew, now I find myself wondering whether I should cash out with PP and re-bet with 365 at 50/1 ew. Still contemplating.
In the main you have been looking at novice hurdlers for next season and horses with potential to win any race.
So lets take the three big festival novices from Cheltenham 2022.
Supreme - Constitution Hill, was anyone on at a big price this time last year, the horse came to prominence in the betting Nov/Dec 21 around 10/1 which quickly disappeared, Jonbon I suspect plenty of you would have been on at some juicy odds hopefully ew.
Ballymore - Sir Gerhard, plenty of us, including myself would have been on for the Supreme odds around 5/1 this time last year and lost, maybe 8 to 10/1 for Ballymore and won.
Albert Bartlett - The Nice Guy anyone on at a big price, the horse won two races at 2m and then 2m 3f at Naas end of January, Looking back at Willie's previous recent winners Monkfish and Penhill they had both won at around 3 miles before winning the AB. Interesting to know if anyone was on at a nice price.
So back to Cheltenham 23 we are all looking for the next good thing, but 2 of the 3 big novice winners for this year only came to prominence in late 22, I may be wrong there so please correct me if I am.

Here is my Contrarian or alternative view for Cheltenham 23 compared to previous posts.
Win Trixie on horses we know and are pretty much certain they will contest Cheltenham 23.

Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle 3/1 10/3 or a little 7/2, Constitution Hill could well be an up and coming superstar, but DD and Jonbon set the Supreme up for him with the breakneck pace, so the power the horse has, was seen to great effect, I think the RPR of 172 is inflated. Can CH do it in a slowly run race, Honeysuckle can, it has done so the last few runs now, it was always thought 2m would be too short for it, the horse has adapted and I for one hope the mare can stay unbeaten until she retires.

Stayers Hurdle Flooring Porter generally 5/1, this time last year and through the course of each day prior to the win at Cheltenham this year, this horse was described as temperamental, pre race preliminaries would get to him, would bolt for the lead etc etc. Proved itself now and surely everything will be geared to winning Stayers 3 years running.

Gold Cup A Plus Tard a little 9/2 generally 4/1. Rachael has found the key to this horse and rode it perfectly to win the Gold Cup this year and for that matter the Betfair Chase. A second Gold Cup will surely be the main target.

These three horses will all be below 10 years of age at next years festival, an important point Gavin Lynch looks at and I agree with when picking selections, certainly the top graded races.

There you go, sorry for the length of this post, hope I don't get restricted for any future posts lol.

Great first post that.
I've done the same 3 horses for the same reason but instead of a trixie I've added Energumene and done the yankee.