Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Hurricane fly]

….last of the 20-1 Mercurey (Supreme) appears to have gone.

Jonbon been cut down from the 12s and 14s that some initially had aswell.

They aren't hanging around to react that's for sure

[Odin]

I was thinking the same but for the NHC. Willie clearly thinks he wants a trip. The sorrow in his voice having to send him over the Ballymore trip was almost comical pre-Chelts. His SL column again talks of distance and a fence being his friend. Dare I say The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner look slightly the classier animals and therefore more suited to the RSA, too? Whatdeawant (NHC) could be my big early season bet this year. Maybe a related double with St James's Gate.

Interestingly, I checked for odds after I wrote the message and WDAW is priced up for the NHC with Paddy, but not the RSA so there's every chance you're closer to the target than I am

[charlie]

The following is an interesting read - doesn't sound like he needs to improve to win a Champion Hurdle.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/members/latest/i-think-hed-beat-honeysuckle-handicapper-raves-over-constitution-hill/545601

Constitution Hill has been awarded the highest ever BHA rating for a novice hurdler since the Anglo-Irish jumps classifications began in the 1999-2000 season and the handicapper responsible for his mark is confident he would beat the mighty Honeysuckle if they met.

Nicky Henderson's five-year-old has been given a rating of 170 for his 22-length demolition job in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, eclipsing Iris's Gift, who was rated 168 after finishing second to Baracouda in the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle as a novice.

Constitution Hill's mark is also at least 10lb higher than every other Supreme winner in that time. Altior and Appreciate It have come closest, while Constitution Hill is 11lb higher than Shishkin and Douvan and 12lb above Vautour and Champagne Fever.

It is also the first 170+ rating the BHA has given to a hurdler since Espoir D'Allen's victory in the 2019 Champion Hurdle, prompting handicapper and hurdles team leader Andrew Mealor to hail the Michael Buckley-owned star as a "very special" talent for the future.

"I'd been very impressed by his first two runs, but when you watch the race and the way he cleared away from Jonbon without the jockey having to go for him, you think, 'Wow, this is clearly an absolutely top-class horse,'" he said about a display that broke the track record.

"You've got two main elements. The first is that he's won by 22 lengths and you don't get many Grade 1 races won by such a distance, especially not at the festivals. The second element is that the performance on the clock was very impressive.

"Compared to the other races on the card on the Tuesday it stacks up very well, and when you dig a bit deeper into the sectionals of the race, the field in the Supreme went much quicker early than they did in the Champion Hurdle and by about halfway they were about 26 lengths ahead of the Champion Hurdle field.

"However, from two hurdles out Constitution Hill was still able to run faster to the line compared to Honeysuckle by 1.2 seconds. Given she'd been in a steadier race that had probably taken much less out of her, you would expect her to run the faster time, but the fact he's done it in that time suggests we're dealing with a very special horse."

Constitution Hill was also awarded the highest ever Racing Post Rating given to a Supreme winner, of 172, which was also the best novice hurdle performance in RPR history.

Honeysuckle's official rating remained at 165 following her second Champion Hurdle success and the 7lb mares allowance puts her rating 2lb higher than Constitution Hill, but Mealor thinks that the young pretender will prove superior if they clash at the Punchestown festival or in next year's Champion Hurdle.

He added: "He's basically the first 170+ hurdler we've had for the past three seasons, that's the level we're talking about. I suspect if they do meet, Constitution Hill will come out on top.

"As things stand, if you look strictly on those ratings, she would come out ahead, as she's 165 and with the mares' allowance she's effectively 172 in those races.

"However, it's hard not to think he's not open to further improvement given what he's done already in just three runs. The likelihood is he's going to rate higher in time when circumstances allow."

Cheltenham Festival-winning trainer Henrietta Knight is among the many relishing the clash between the two.

"He's very exciting for the future – to do that on his third start and to finish in a near six-second faster time than the Champion Hurdle, carrying 4lb more than Honeysuckle, was remarkable," she said.

"He has a marvellous attitude for racing as he appears to be very laid-back and relaxed about it and he can conserve his energy for the big day. It would be an amazing match between Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill, be it this season or next, and it's good for the sport.

"To see top horses run against each other is what it is about and the fact Honeysuckle is a mare gives people tremendous encouragement to buy fillies and not just geldings."

[Maxfield]

Not sure if people have mentioned this horse before!

Jet Powered – 33/1 - Could be Nicky’s supreme horse?

'I think he's a superstar' - Highflyer swoops for Jet Powered at 350,000gns. The son of Jet Away will head to Nicky Henderson's yard for established owners

January -Thursday's Tattersalls Online National Hunt and Point-to-Point Sale came to an action-packed climax when three of the ten lots on offer sold for six-figure sums, with Borris House four-year-old maiden victor Jet Powered topping the sale at 350,000gns to Highflyer Bloodstock.
By one of the fast rising young National Hunt sires in Jet Away, Jet Powered came home eight lengths clear of the field last Sunday and subsequently became the most expensive of the stallion's progeny to sell at public auction. .
"I do think he’s an absolute superstar. His work had been spectacular and his performance last Sunday was breathtaking."
Farrell selected Jet Powered, who was bred by Francis Whelan, for €45,000 at last year’s Tattersalls Derby Sale on behalf of Douglas Taylor, the man behind the likes of Samcro and a partner in Arctic Tack Stud-based Jet Away.
He added: "Douglas gave me the remit to go out and find him the nicest Jet Away that I could, and this is what I got. I only bought one, and I do think I did buy the nicest one. He was a standout, and I don’t think he was expensive for what he is.
Douglas is working so hard to make sure that his stallion works, I think he’s going to be a huge success as he covered so many lower-grade mares and produced good horses. This one was probably the first proper horse with a big pedigree to come online. Douglas was very keen for him to go to a big home and he is, he’s going to a be a flagbearer for the stallion, which is essential too.
"He’s just a super-exciting horse. We only train a handful of point-to-pointers every year and to get a result like this is huge."
Minton, who said that he allowed Highflyer partner Anthony Bromley to administer the keyboard and mouse duties, explained that Jet Powered was bought for "established owners with Nicky Henderson".
"On what we’ve seen and the pictures that we were sent over, he looks a really, really nice horse, and his time was very quick," he said. "I know two or three people who have seen him before and the reports back were that he was a lovely individual."

[Arkle]

One I am looking at is epatante for the mares hurdle with the news of going up in trip at aintree constitutional hill in the same camp for the champion next year makes sense to go for the mares hurdle and think she would have a great shout

[charlie]

One I am looking at is epatante for the mares hurdle with the news of going up in trip at aintree constitutional hill in the same camp for the champion next year makes sense to go for the mares hurdle and think she would have a great shout

I agree, I think thats a great shout. She always finds a way to run a blinder at Cheltenham and we can be certain Nicky will campaign her gently and carefully.

[Odin]

I actually think at this stage it's quite difficult for next year on reflection. If you discount the novice hurdles, we have:

Arkle: Jonbon likely to go and face AI/DD/SG
Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill vs Honeysuckle
Mares Hurdle: Epatante vs TMSG vs SWIW vs Marie's Rock
NH Chase: Anyone's guess at this point but WDAW, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Frontal Assault and TBO would be early names that stand out
RSA: The Nice Guy does look an obvious possibility, but JWM could step up although I've got my doubts about him now, Blazing Khal and Hillcrest also possibles
Champion Chase: Energumene vs Shishkin most likely, but couldn't be sure which way it would go if Shishkin hasn't ended himself with the Ascot win (and don't want to back E on the basis that that has happened)
XC: Delta Work vs Prengarde
Turners: SG/State Man/JWM/Dysart Dynamo/Saint Felicien/AI etc - I think this is the one that could cut up out of the three novice chases, but don't know which way right now
Ryanair: Allaho vs GDC vs Bob (maybe)
Stayers: Flooring Porter looks solid, would be tempted to send AI here if I was owners but I'm not. 5/1 looks a good price for FP at this point.
Gold Cup: Could A Plus Tard put in a performance like that on proper soft ground? Good ground I'd be very much with him. L'Homme Press, Bob Olinger/Bravemansgame (who I wouldn't back antepost) in a similar slowly run 3mile race, Monkfish if he comes back to the same horse, Ahoy Senor if he sorts his jumping
Mares Chase: Elimay/Riviere D'Etel/Scarlet Dove/Allegorie De Vassy.

I look back and think: why didn't I lump on Honey and Allaho last year at 2/1 and 7/2 alongside FP at 10s. This year I only see Flooring Porter as an incredibly solid proposition - and maybe Constitution Hill given the rumours and track performances suggest that he's that good. Lots to ponder - hopefully Aintree and Punchestown help us (or me!) out in that regard

[Exar Essay]

I actually think at this stage it's quite difficult for next year on reflection. If you discount the novice hurdles, we have:

Arkle: Jonbon likely to go and face AI/DD/SG
Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill vs Honeysuckle
Mares Hurdle: Epatante vs TMSG vs SWIW vs Marie's Rock
NH Chase: Anyone's guess at this point but WDAW, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Frontal Assault and TBO would be early names that stand out
RSA: The Nice Guy does look an obvious possibility, but JWM could step up although I've got my doubts about him now, Blazing Khal and Hillcrest also possibles
Champion Chase: Energumene vs Shishkin most likely, but couldn't be sure which way it would go if Shishkin hasn't ended himself with the Ascot win (and don't want to back E on the basis that that has happened)
XC: Delta Work vs Prengarde
Turners: SG/State Man/JWM/Dysart Dynamo/Saint Felicien/AI etc - I think this is the one that could cut up out of the three novice chases, but don't know which way right now
Ryanair: Allaho vs GDC vs Bob (maybe)
Stayers: Flooring Porter looks solid, would be tempted to send AI here if I was owners but I'm not. 5/1 looks a good price for FP at this point.
Gold Cup: Could A Plus Tard put in a performance like that on proper soft ground? Good ground I'd be very much with him. L'Homme Press, Bob Olinger/Bravemansgame (who I wouldn't back antepost) in a similar slowly run 3mile race, Monkfish if he comes back to the same horse, Ahoy Senor if he sorts his jumping
Mares Chase: Elimay/Riviere D'Etel/Scarlet Dove/Allegorie De Vassy.

I look back and think: why didn't I lump on Honey and Allaho last year at 2/1 and 7/2 alongside FP at 10s. This year I only see Flooring Porter as an incredibly solid proposition - and maybe Constitution Hill given the rumours and track performances suggest that he's that good. Lots to ponder - hopefully Aintree and Punchestown help us (or me!) out in that regard

I agree, Odin. But I think the spectre of Constitution Hill is distracting bookies in the novice chase markets so there could be some value there. They're scared of him turning up anywhere. I think you can also put a (pencil) line through SG in the novice chasing division given Willie's comments about him being a CH horse from flat pedigree etc. Probably not as strong a scrubbing out as CH, but he wouldn't be at the forefront of my mind right now. Then I'm fairly sure State Man will stay over hurdles too given that Willie has said he will likely be a dual purpose horse and you wouldn't want a flat horse over fences.

That means you could, for example, Dutch AI, DD and Jonbon in the Arkle at about 3/1. That seems ok value for the 3 likely market leaders at this stage and in the current market.

Having said that, I do like Bring on the Night who must be open for some improvement given he's only been to a British/Irish racecourse twice, winning once and fourth in a Supreme the other. Then there's El Fabiolo who will probably be Arkle bound, James Du Berlais for the Marsh, and Kilcruit for whichever race AI doesn't turn up to. Willie has long maintained this guy is a chaser (and he jumps a hurdle like its 10ft anyway). Then you've got the likely inferior ones (but you never know what happens when they see a fence) such as Ramilles, Classic Getaway, Deploy etc. And that's just Willie's charges

[archie]

Always amuses me how people spend the weeks before the Festival ranting about Mullins Bingo and the weeks after the Festival signing up to the next round.

[JackieMoon33]

Always amuses me how people spend the weeks before the Festival ranting about Mullins Bingo and the weeks after the Festival signing up to the next round.

It’s an addiction Archie and there is no AP Awareness Campaign

[Ice]

Always amuses me how people spend the weeks before the Festival ranting about Mullins Bingo and the weeks after the Festival signing up to the next round.

I'd never thought about it like that but that's pretty much me, I'm more moaning than ranting though !

[Nevertoolate]

Always amuses me how people spend the weeks before the Festival ranting about Mullins Bingo and the weeks after the Festival signing up to the next round.

All part of the fun, the satisfaction of your (let’s be honest at this stage, guesswork) when the horses turn up in the right races (for your pocket) is unbelievable.

[Maxfield]

Kudasheva – 40/1 Henry De Bromhead – This could look like a nice price come Cheltenham for the Mares Novice Hurdle.

We're delighted to get her' - ?370,000 sale-topper heading to Henry de Bromhead

The daughter of Pour Moi had won her sole point-to-point start at Ballycahane, storming clear by an impressive 12 lengths, and she had the page to go with her talents. The four-year-old is out of the winning Daboya, a Hernando half-sister to 2016 Gold Cup winner Don Cossack, while under the third dam are the likes of German Group winners Denaro and Davidoff.
De Bromhead said: "She's a gorgeous filly and came highly recommended by Pat Doyle. She's for an owner with horses in the yard and we were delighted to get her."
Doyle added: "I've sold Henry nice horses in the past and I love seeing them go on. I have never sold a mare for as much as that! She has a great pedigree, and she has done things so well."

[Odin]

That means you could, for example, Dutch AI, DD and Jonbon in the Arkle at about 3/1. That seems ok value for the 3 likely market leaders at this stage and in the current market.

I love how strong this conclusion was for the middle part of your message, followed by the ending where it felt like you were talking yourself out of it quite dramatically - Classic Mullins Bingo

For what it's worth, I'm impressed you could even get to the point of the quote above - I literally can't and have very little desire (at this point) to try and work it all out. I just know it's heavily up in the air this year, which we agree on. Good luck if you go for the dutch though

[Maxfield]

These are pretty much my fancies.

I don’t like backing horses who have been injured for at least a year as I can’t think of many who come back to win at Cheltenham.

Appreciate It ( i know he ran in the end, but just don't fancy him for next year)
Ferney Hollow
Letsbeclearaboutit
Monkfish
Buzz
Shewearsitwell


Supreme
Facile Vega
Jet Powered

Arkle
Jonbon

National Hunt chase
Banbridge
Badenstown Lad
Classic Getaway – they almost didn’t go Cheltenham as it’s all about chasing with him and he really needs a trip. He will be a different animal over fences and I think it will be Mullins main horse for this race.

Ballymore
American Mike
James’s Gate (name checked for this race)
Gaelic Warrior (name checked for this race)
Henri The Second (name checked for this race and Nicholls really likes him and seems the only race one of his turns up, expect same route as previous years)


Mares Hurdle
Elle Est Belle
Maria’s Rock

Champion chase
Galopin Des Champs (I do think he will end up here, all Mullins and Ruby say is he has speed and they want to try this distance)

Champion Bumper
Better Days Ahead
Steller Story (although I think he may go Bartlett) Brother to Story teller and Elliot said “He looked a nice horse and we've been lucky with the brother. He's a proper staying chaser and is a horse for next year.”




Brown Advisory Chase
The Nice Guy
Hill Crest
Journey With Me
Monmiral (Nicholls said he wants 3m, but not priced up for this)

Turners
Minella Cocooner (almost went Ballymore and I think he has a bit of speed and will go here)

Ryanair
Janidil (another each way play @ 33/1 can’t see him going anywhere else)

Mares Novice
Night And Day (was already named checked for this by Ruby for this year)
Kudasheva

Gold Cup
Stattler
Protektorat
Bob Olinger