Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[MTR]

Wouldn’t be writing dinoblue off just yet in what is still a weak mares division. When that amount of money goes down for a Mullins horse it doesn’t often go amiss. She was far too keen on the day and I’d put a line through that run completely. Don’t forget epatante got stuffed in the same race 2

Reminds me of epatante a few years back in the mares novice who rank a bit of a stinker

[Eggs]

….American Mike as low as 6-1 for Ballymore, still that price in Sky’s a/r list. Firms appear to be taking no chances this year, especially with the top Bumper horses.

[Exar Essay]

Where was this?

I've been seeing quite a few quotes from owners on twitter today but nobody is saying where they have come from - notably Buckley saying CH stats hurdling

edit: I've found most of them

That was on Racing TV. Luck on Sunday.

There was a decent interview with Buckley and Richard Thompson on Racing Debate on Sky Sports Racing too.

Some of the other juicy quotes are from a RP members article.

[BarrowNH01]

Could it be bob olinger is like samcro and envoi allen and just not as good as everyone was expecting him to be ? I'm not saying he is and hopefully he was just not at his best on Wednesday.

This is something i was thinking along the lines of. Too often a novice hurdler is built up as the second coming of Christ after a good campaign, and then are disappointing when they go over fences.

[Stormez]

He’s a bigger price elsewhere, but worth noting if you bet with Sky that Shishkin is 7/2 for the Champion Chase but also 7/2 to win any race.

[ComplyOrDie]

Any idea when William Hill start pricing up the 'any race' market?

I'm going to attempt to leave handicappers alone for this but there are some novice hurdlers I'd like to get onside, and after the debacle of Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Journey With Me of this season, I think I'd prefer to just back 'any race' provided they are priced well enough.

[Istabraq]

Any idea when William Hill start pricing up the 'any race' market?

I'm going to attempt to leave handicappers alone for this but there are some novice hurdlers I'd like to get onside, and after the debacle of Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Journey With Me of this season, I think I'd prefer to just back 'any race' provided they are priced well enough.

They have usually been fairly quick off the mark CoD, have certainly been up in April in previous years though I assume this is for a limited number of horses and you'll need to request others to be added.
Of course they can't be included in multi's sadly...

[JackieMoon33]

Fact To File
Won a Belharbour 5yo PTP in February impressively for Donnchadh Doyle. Word was out before he ran and he duly obliged; travelling well, putting the race to bed easily and posting a big rating. He was due to head to the sales, but I am led to believe he has been sold privately (?400k?) to Willie Mullins. Given his age I would take a guess that he'd go hurdling next season but you never know with Willie. If he goes hurdling he'll be one for 2m-2m4f in my opinion as he's sharp and travels strongly.
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Three From France (Irish Point / Inneston / Jamestown)
I've grouped these French recruits together as they are all connected in some way.

Irish Point brings the form angle as he won a Grade 1 AQPS Flat Race over 1m4f at Saint-Cloud (26/11/2021). The field included winners and placed horses from Graded AQPS Flat Races and has now produced a subsequent winner of a conditions hurdle at Auteuil (Il Est Francais). He's by Joshua Tree who could be about to have some break out NH horses as he's not made much of a mark at stud so far. Irish Point has been purchased privately by Robcour and heading to Ireland but I'm not 100% on who will be training him. At the moment he's probably my most interesting French recruit that I've come across so far as he'll be going to one of the marquee trainers no doubt. I'd have him down for shorter trips over hurdles.

Inneston has form ties with Irish Point and actually beat him when they met. Sired by Doctor Dino, he is a half brother to Delta Work out of a very productive broodmare (Robbe). He was impressive on his one and only start and has been purchased privately by Gary Moore and Olly Harris (Porticello connections). I'm a fan of the horse but I have a small reservation over the trainer, even though I am a fan of Gary Moore. I'd have him down for shorter trips over hurdles.

Jamestown is an unraced full brother to the aforementioned Inneston. He is owned by Caldwell Construction after being purchased for EUR 130K at the Arqana sales in November 2021. This is a dark one as he's not raced yet but I'm including him in the hope he'll follow his older full-sibling. He's currently still in France with Gabriel Leenders and they may choose to run him France (like with Fil Dor) before moving him to Gordon in Ireland. If he makes the track and proves good enough, he could be a decent juvenile but it's a long shot as he's not even raced under any discipline yet.
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Irish Bumper Horses To Follow (Outside the obvious)

Imagine won a bumper for Gordon Elliott and Edelle Logan (wife of agent Joey) at the end of February. For those that like the race planning trend, it was the same bumper that Mighty Potter won the year before. It probably wasn't much of a race but he cruised through it and put the race to bed easily. He's out of a festival winning sire in Montmarte and looks like he could be above average over hurdles. He had a Champion Bumper entry but did not take it up.

Instant Tendance is yet to race for Gordon Elliott but had a recent entry so could be one that will get a run in at some point before hurdling next season. She's a half sister to Earlofthecotswolds and Good Risk At All out of Joshua Tree. As mentioned above, I'm hoping Joshua Tree will have some break out NH horses this season. She was purchased for EUR 125K in June 2021.

Icare D’aubrelle won a bumper for Tom Cooper at Naas in February in impressive fashion and he's one I'll be keeping an eye on. He easily despatched the field without being asked a serious question and was very professional. He's a half brother to French Assel out of Saint De Saints so there is some substance to his pedigree too.

[ComplyOrDie]

They have usually been fairly quick off the mark CoD, have certainly been up in April in previous years though I assume this is for a limited number of horses and you'll need to request others to be added.
Of course they can't be included in multi's sadly...

Cheers mate. I thought it may be sooner rather than later, hopefully before any of them are seen in bumpers No bother about the multiples, just yet

[Exar Essay]

Parmenion in the Supreme interests me. With Willie. One win on the flat in France. Willie sounded cock-a-hoop to have been able to purchase him last year. Also said in the SL Stable Tour last year that he might be one for the Triumph '22 or could be held back for '23. Clearly he has been held back and I'd wager that might've been because Rich Ricci was pushing to have Vauban in the Triumph.

I'm not very knowledgeable on breeding but by Solider Hollow who produced Arctic Fire and Saldier too, so I think the shorter trip is more likely.

I've had him added to the Supreme market at 40/1. I think this is reasonable value for an early freebet dabble and might scale in with entries etc.

[Eggs]

….next years Mares Hurdle already the target for Love Envoi;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/March/21/fehily-savouring-festival-success-with-love-envoi

[Zachx02]

Parmenion in the Supreme interests me. With Willie. One win on the flat in France. Willie sounded cock-a-hoop to have been able to purchase him last year. Also said in the SL Stable Tour last year that he might be one for the Triumph '22 or could be held back for '23. Clearly he has been held back and I'd wager that might've been because Rich Ricci was pushing to have Vauban in the Triumph.

I'm not very knowledgeable on breeding but by Solider Hollow who produced Arctic Fire and Saldier too, so I think the shorter trip is more likely.

I've had him added to the Supreme market at 40/1. I think this is reasonable value for an early freebet dabble and might scale in with entries etc.

I highlighted him for the Triumph around October last year and like you say it was either Vauban or him going for the triumph and it turned out to be the latter,

There's another Ricci horse I've had my eyes on for a while and it was bought at the Autumn Arqana sales, and it is QUAIS DE PARIS, bought for 180k, out of Masked Marvel who is a relatively up and coming sire with his best progeny being teahupoo so far, and a Muhtahir mare who didn't really achieve much on the racecourse, it finished 3rd on racecourse debut with the race winner winner coming 2nd next time out and the 2nd place winning next time, off breeding I'd say it's a midrange trip so ballymore most likely as some of the progeny from Muhtahir being a damsire include the likes of Capodanno

It seems like Ricci will have a lot of novice hurdlers next season, with off the top of my head from my notes:

Gaelic Warrior
Houlanbatordechais
Parmenion
Quais De Paris
Mercurey
Bialystok

[Nwfb89]

Reading and listening to the things said about Constitution hill and Sir gerhard re next season and likely staying over hurdles, I think for next season we could potentially get some decent prices on novice chasers as in recent years we've had the supreme and ballymore winners going chasing and being pretty short prices around 4/1 or 5/1, so providing CH and SG don't go chasing could be a nice year for those of us that like to build a book and not have to get the shorter price horses on board

[JackieMoon33]

Reading and listening to the things said about Constitution hill and Sir gerhard re next season and likely staying over hurdles, I think for next season we could potentially get some decent prices on novice chasers as in recent years we've had the supreme and ballymore winners going chasing and being pretty short prices around 4/1 or 5/1, so providing CH and SG don't go chasing could be a nice year for those of us that like to build a book and not have to get the shorter price horses on board

Agree - and there were a few who missed the festival or underperformed too. I'll be all over Gerri Colombe for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. Just need to hope he doesn't run at Punchestown to scupper things.

[Istabraq]

We were discussing the 2023 prices on the way home Friday evening, they look pretty dire.
Constitution Hill 2/1 and Honeysuckle 5/2 was one, just laughable odds compiling.
I think that was 365 but could be wrong.
They’re effectively saying we don’t want to lay anything but if you’re desperate to get involved then forget the slightest hint of value.

Another long Summer beckons if that level is adopted by them all…