Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Kevloaf]

One place for those who are crazy enough to already be looking ahead, to discuss early fancies.... before the 2023 diaries kick off.


No after timing prices you've already taken in here if they're not available anymore. If you are desperate to after time a price, make a diary in the members section and do it there



To kick off, and I'm not going to be actively looking at 2023 myself yet, but did stumble across one I thought was a decent enough price to consider even at this stage..... it is James's Gate in the Ballymore at 20/1 (WH)

3rd in a (potentially) red hot Champion Bumper. He's kept on well for 3rd too.

It's rare to know the target, but given the owners and connections, I think it's fairly safe to think if he ends up being better than a handicapper, he'll be their most likely Ballymore 2023 runner. Whatdeawant placed for them in this years renewal, after a mixed season... and for all that he was available at bigger prices through the season, he went off with an SP of 16/1

So all in all, 20/1 now seems okay.

[Odin]

I don't think Telmesomethinggirl is a bad price at 10/1 for the Mares Hurdle as things stand.

I'm not in any rush to back her right now, but I find it difficult to believe she wouldn't have been placed this year without being brought down.


EDIT - I also think there will be value in the Gold Cup market next year as neither GDC nor Bob will go I don't think.

[Kevloaf]

Some Fat Jockeys will be taking a break for a few months whilst others are already nominating possible targets for next years festival, so I thought it might be an idea to have those discussions in one place.

il Etait Temps pulled like a train in the Triumph and some like him for novice hurdles, Vauban highlighted for the Champion Hurdle etc.

What we do know is this game is getting tougher, markets already forming with short-priced favourites this far out. Facile Vega is as short as 7/2 for the Supreme, Sky offer 6/4 for him to win that or the Ballymore, Constitution Hill 9/4 for the Champion Hurdle. Finding a bit of value is a challenge but I’m sure the Fat Jockeys will find it.

So, in reviewing what has happened this week, let’s know if you have already started your next portfolio.

Great minds Eggs

[Eggs]

….ha, ha.

Kevloaf please feel free to delete mine.

[darlojim]

Galopin where ever he goes..

Sir Gerhard Turners would be a shout this far out for me also.

Thought Jonbon would go chasing therefore the Arkle at 10s isnt too bad a shout :/ Nothing immediately standing out to me in the Arkle as big contenders bar Appreciate It but he may need a little further by next year?

Ramillies and GDM would interest me in the NHC.

Oh and Demandrivingdouvan wins the bumper - it's too easy this game isn't it?!

Never too early to get stuck into next year

[Zachx02]

Gaillard Du Mesnil - NHC
Facile Vega wherever he goes

American Mike Albert Bartlett, clear out and out stayers, knew that from his PTP

Demandrivingdouvan Bumper

[Zachx02]

One place for those who are crazy enough to already be looking ahead, to discuss early fancies.... before the 2023 diaries kick off.


No after timing prices you've already taken in here if they're not available anymore. If you are desperate to after time a price, make a diary in the members section and do it there



To kick off, and I'm not going to be actively looking at 2023 myself yet, but did stumble across one I thought was a decent enough price to consider even at this stage..... it is James's Gate in the Ballymore at 20/1 (WH)

3rd in a (potentially) red hot Champion Bumper. He's kept on well for 3rd too.

It's rare to know the target, but given the owners and connections, I think it's fairly safe to think if he ends up being better than a handicapper, he'll be their most likely Ballymore 2023 runner. Whatdeawant placed for them in this years renewal, after a mixed season... and for all that he was available at bigger prices through the season, he went off with an SP of 16/1

So all in all, 20/1 now seems okay.

Willie has already confirmed he's being aimed for the ballymore next year, he said in one of his pre festival stable tours with sporting Life

[Glasgow Ronnie]

I took the 33-1 for Constitution hill for the Champion Hurdle on 8th December on the chance he might be something special. The other bet I have done is Galopin de Champ for the Gold Cup at 12-1 after his first race, although I'm not as hopeful he will go there now. Both are with William Hill

[darlojim]

I took the 33-1 for Constitution hill for the Champion Hurdle on 8th December on the chance he might be something special. The other bet I have done is Galopin de Champ for the Gold Cup at 12-1 after his first race, although I'm not as hopeful he will go there now. Both are with William Hill

Read the starting post - no after timing please, it matters little to anyone.

[FinalFurlong91]

Nicky henderson trained mare Luccia has looked very good so far

One for the mares novice hurdle potentially

Riviere detel for the mares chase, yesterday's race looked naff to me and she could just be miles the best.

[Bonjers]

Riviere D'etel for the Mares my first fancy. She should improve markedly for another year.

[Dandrew99]

Unsurprisingly, Mullins seems to already have an absolute army of potentially very good novices. Off the top of my head:

• Facile Vega
• James' Gate
• Redemption Day
• Madmansgame
• Houlanbatordechais
• Gaelic Warrior
• Il Etait Temps
• Mercurey

Going to be tough to work out who his main darts are for each race at this stage. Plus we know there will likely be a few other bumper horses and French recruits to add to the mix. Think I'm personally going to be keeping my money in my pocket when it comes to the novice hurdlers.

Will be interesting to see what he does with Appreciate It now. I wouldn't say he has an obvious Arkle horse for next season now, a fair bit might revolve around what he does with him. You would imagine Dysart Dynamo would be the other potential candidate for him, but hard to make a case that he's as good as Appreciate It, so 12/1 for him might be of interest. My gut tells me that Constitution Hill will be kept to hurdles, so there's possibly a bit of value to be had there.

Sir Gerhard is the obvious one for the Turners should be go chasing. 5/1 is too short for a horse with doubts about whether he goes chasing, and obviously he could go back to the Arkle too.

I'd agree that Telmesomethinggirl looks decent value at 10s for the Mares Hurdle, although I don't think her price will change much between now and say October. Will arguably get bigger if she follows the same route as this year.

The only one that's slightly tempting me to get involved is the Ryanair and the Gold Cup, if Allaho does go up to the Gold Cup then the Ryanair becomes very open, Galopin Des Champs could be decent at 5/1 with Allaho at 16s. The related double might be quite nice. Galopin Des Champs is an awful price at 7/2, I'd say he's odds on to not even go now.

[Eggs]

Willie has already confirmed he's being aimed for the ballymore next year, he said in one of his pre festival stable tours with sporting Life

….has to be one for the March Yankee Middle_Of_March given how Whatdeawant was targeted with certainty. GDC is 6-1 for Ryanair which might be decent to add alongside.

[MTR]

One place for those who are crazy enough to already be looking ahead, to discuss early fancies.... before the 2023 diaries kick off.


No after timing prices you've already taken in here if they're not available anymore. If you are desperate to after time a price, make a diary in the members section and do it there



To kick off, and I'm not going to be actively looking at 2023 myself yet, but did stumble across one I thought was a decent enough price to consider even at this stage..... it is James's Gate in the Ballymore at 20/1 (WH)

3rd in a (potentially) red hot Champion Bumper. He's kept on well for 3rd too.

It's rare to know the target, but given the owners and connections, I think it's fairly safe to think if he ends up being better than a handicapper, he'll be their most likely Ballymore 2023 runner. Whatdeawant placed for them in this years renewal, after a mixed season... and for all that he was available at bigger prices through the season, he went off with an SP of 16/1

So all in all, 20/1 now seems okay.

I got that added to William hill last night via Twitter, with connections seems the obvious choice!

[Altior]

Redemption Day for the Supreme.
James's Gate for the Ballymore.
Jonbon for the JLT.
Journey With Me for the RSA.
Appreciate It for the Ryanair/Gold Cup due to age.
Alaphilippe for the Stayers.