Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Exar Essay]

Agree - and there were a few who missed the festival or underperformed too. I'll be all over Gerri Colombe for the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. Just need to hope he doesn't run at Punchestown to scupper things.

Don't! I can't do another year of heartbreak Gerri. But I did think 33/1 about him looked decent considering his record over hurdles whilst Gordon said he was a 'big baby' and that he was a chaser in waiting.

[Exar Essay]

We were discussing the 2023 prices on the way home Friday evening, they look pretty dire.
Constitution Hill 2/1 and Honeysuckle 5/2 was one, just laughable odds compiling.
I think that was 365 but could be wrong.
They’re effectively saying we don’t want to lay anything but if you’re desperate to get involved then forget the slightest hint of value.

Another long Summer beckons if that level is adopted by them all…

I'd always thought B365 offered better value than most. Then, around Jan/Feb this year, they started cutting prices pretty keenly and without reason. That seems to have continued into this year's offerings. Other than one or two exceptions, PP seem to offer much better value of the two cash out firms.

The one that got me was 5/1 about ADV in the Mare's chase. I'd want 5/1 that she even tries a fence next year.

[robith]

I've seen somethings in my time but 2/1 for the Champion Hurdle for a horse with 3 career runs over onstacles is absolutely atrocious, course record or not

[Istabraq]

365 have priced the Champion Hurdle as follows:
2/1 Constitution Hill
5/2 Honeysuckle
7/1 Vauban
7/1 Sir Gerhard

I make that 91% of their book on four runners.
Thas to be the worst piece of bookmaking I have ever seen, I’m baffled the head trader is comfortable advertising the market.
Embarrassing…

[Exar Essay]

365 have priced the Champion Hurdle as follows:
2/1 Constitution Hill
5/2 Honeysuckle
7/1 Vauban
7/1 Sir Gerhard

I make that 91% of their book on four runners.
Thas to be the worst piece of bookmaking I have ever seen, I’m baffled the head trader is comfortable advertising the market.
Embarrassing…

Just totted up the rest of their book too. It comes to 42%. So a year out, when many dark horses are still to be factored in to the market with injuries etc all to play a part, their book is at 133%. The others aren't much better.

If you're going to take a firm view on a fav, surely you have to push the others out?

[archie]

Supply and demand. It's not mandatory to have a bet and, with views still clouded by rose tinted specs, now is probably a good time to sit on your hands.

[Istabraq]

Supply and demand. It's not mandatory to have a bet and, with views still clouded by rose tinted specs, now is probably a good time to sit on your hands.

I’d be shocked if anyone isn’t sitting on their hands.
365, by those prices/value, clearly don’t want to lay a bet…

[Ice]

365 have priced the Champion Hurdle as follows:
2/1 Constitution Hill
5/2 Honeysuckle
7/1 Vauban
7/1 Sir Gerhard

I make that 91% of their book on four runners.
Thas to be the worst piece of bookmaking I have ever seen, I’m baffled the head trader is comfortable advertising the market.
Embarrassing…

I thought last years prices were a joke but now it seems they have managed to lower the bar even further. I know there's a two time winner and a potential monster in there but how do they expect to get any custom twelve months out at those prices ? Well I'm presuming they don't want any custom on them.

[Eggs]

I thought last years prices were a joke but now it seems they have managed to lower the bar even further. I know there's a two time winner and a potential monster in there but how do they expect to get any custom twelve months out at those prices ? Well I'm presuming they don't want any custom on them.

….or perhaps they’re protecting liabilities already in their book. Sir G was 20-1 for this when Mullins highlighted he could stay over hurdles in his recent stable tour, Vauban was 28-1 and CH 16-1 to win at the Festival and next years CH.

Regardless, all firms are clearly making it more difficult for ante-post punters, we maybe have to find clever ways to stay one-step ahead.

[BigBucksFlatSpot]

Galopin any race on skybet has also been cut to 2 -1

It is slim pickings already isn't it...what price would honeysuckle be if constitution had gone chasing..

Monkfish at 16s
hillcrest at 20s for browns
stattler gold cup at 20s

Are just about on the edge of considering

[Ice]

….or perhaps they’re protecting liabilities already in their book. Sir G was 20-1 for this when Mullins highlighted he could stay over hurdles in his recent stable tour, Vauban was 28-1 and CH 14-1 to win at the Festival and next years CH.

Regardless, all firms are clearly making it more difficult for ante-post punters.

I think i shall have to start paying more attention to these sort of bets, i did monkfish rsa/gold cup one but when that one went south it must have scarred me !

[Sprinter Sacre]

Was anything said post race about him going chasing? I don’t think the stats back this up (and Fakir the obvious example) but just have this mental block that Joseph has less chasers than hurdlers? Historically horses from the Martin Pipe have done well if sent chasing, so he would certainly be one to watch if being sent that route. As you say the Bartlett angle also potentially sets a target.

Nothing has been said that I can find. Doubt it will be until after the Irish spring festivals or Joseph’s stable tour in the autumn.

[Ice]

Galopin any race on skybet has also been cut to 2 -1

It is slim pickings already isn't it...what price would honeysuckle be if constitution had gone chasing..

Monkfish at 16s
hillcrest at 20s for browns
stattler gold cup at 20s

Are just about on the edge of considering

It sure is, up up until the 2021 festival there always used to be a few that jumped out at ya, I'm struggling to see anything in this years.

[Eggs]

….update from HdB, Honeysuckle set for Punchestown but no target mentioned for Bob O;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/March/21/henry-de-bromhead-hails-'unreal'-repeat-of-cheltenham-double

[Istabraq]

Only ones I could get close to being interested in at current prices:

Champion Hurdle - Bob O and State Man both 20/1
NH Chase - Hillcrest 16/1 but it's a leap of faith to assume he truly copes with the track
Mares Hurdle - TMSG appears quite short at 10/1 but it's a near certain target and not convinced the novices will progress enough to scare her next year
Cross Country - Shady Operator 25/1, chance ended with the monsoon but better ground and he is a serious XC horse
Ryanair - Conflated 25/1 and possibly My Drogo 20/1 at a push
Gold Cup - Stattler 20/1