Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Benjy23]

Couldn't have him on my mind at a top price of 16s like. Just had a look and thought he'd nearer 33s. Beaten in a handicap off 129 and then on to win a Grade 1 at Cheltenham. Seems highly unlikely that, no matter what excuses you want to make for the Fred Winter. Be surprised if he even ends up running in it nevermind winning it.

Much history of similar? Beaten juveniles coming back as second season novices and winning at the festival?

[billymag]

Fair enough, he did run to an rpr of 132 as a 4 year old (only 3 horses ran to higher RPRs in the ballymore this year) as I said on the previous page there was a number of reasons why he didnt get the job done, worth mentioning also that he had 9 months without a run. 16/1 is certainly not exciting but I can see not getting any bigger. We shall see

[Benjy23]

Anyone any thoughts on Marine Nationale? Owner turned trainer only 2 years ago so not a massive amount to go on there yet (although he's owned a few good ones, including Martello Tower and he paid a good few quid for Our Conor), nor is there on breeding, but his bumper win a month ago was impressive visually (127 RPR. 2nd won NTO, 26L 3rd for Mullins was a previous winner, although found to be lame after the race on this occasion) and he defeated the fancied in some quarters Demandrivingdouvan on debut (The 4th for Mullins won NTO). The Royal Bond has been mooted as an option. Just looks to me one of the more interesting ones out there that there's been little talk about.

Interesting enough shout this one. As has been said, early season form can't be taken too seriously but he's one I'll keep my eye out for. Can't fault what he's done so far, and looked like he has plenty of pace. Will see what happens with entries. Trainer holding the price down at least, which hopefully stays the same after a maiden hurdle, and they don't just chuck him into the royal bond.

[Benjy23]

Fair enough, he did run to an rpr of 132 as a 4 year old (only 3 horses ran to higher RPRs in the ballymore this year) as I said on the previous page there was a number of reasons why he didnt get the job done, worth mentioning also that he had 9 months without a run. 16/1 is certainly not exciting but I can see not getting any bigger. We shall see

Aye, you're right to be fair. Given connections he won't get any bigger, unless he's a NR.

[archie]

Much history of similar? Beaten juveniles coming back as second season novices and winning at the festival?

Let's Dance.

[ComplyOrDie]

Let's Dance.

Absolutely.

For me though, there would be a fair bit of difference in going from a Triumph to a Mares Novice Hurdle to going from a handicap where you are assumed 'well in' to a Supreme or Ballymore Novice Hurdle.

Still think they could exploit his mark though. Brazil got 7lbs for winning at Cheltenham, so GW will only be getting 6lbs top end, leaves him on 135.

[Benjy23]

Good shout that archie on the question posed.

As above though, going from a Grade 1 juvenile to a Grade 2 (mares) novice seems a bit easier than from a handicap juvenile to a Grade 1.

[archie]

To be fair, they thought that they could have won the Neptune (Ballymore) with Let's Dance and the RPRs tend to support the view that she could have gone very close. However, there was a huge bonus on offer if she won any race at Cheltenham and the bulk of it went to stable staff so they opted for the easier race.

[ComplyOrDie]

To be fair, they thought that they could have won the Neptune (Ballymore) with Let's Dance and the RPRs tend to support the view that she could have gone very close. However, there was a huge bonus on offer if she won any race at Cheltenham and the bulk of it went to stable staff so they opted for the easier race.

That's fair. Based on her previous race form with Kemboy you'd have to say she wouldn't have been far away, provided she saw the trip out, but definitely the right option to go for the easier race, in the Mares Novice.

As a side note, and of course we lost the 1st & 2nd through fatal injury/colic, but Kemboy was the shining light to come out of that Ballymore. Not much else among the rest of them to get too excited about though. Possibly a poor renewal that year.

[darlojim]

FWIW - Edwardstone likely to start off in the Shloer chase at Cheltenham and depending on how that goes, decide whether to continue at 2miles or step up to 2 1/2..

Thought it was worth mentioning as I know some people have him backed for the CC.

[knockando]

There is one horse flagged up in the top 40 of OJA with positive write ups, but not with as much a sense of a specific route is Fact to File who will be in the green and gold silks.

Few abridged quotes:

'rumoured to be one of the Monbegs top young pointers, unveiled him last Feb - at ease he tracked the pacesetters for over two miles and then inside the last 1/2 mile he improved to contest the lead, with a shake of the reins he hit the front approaching the last fence and drove clear for a 6L win recording the fastest time of the day.

Within hours was privately purchased by McManus and Mullins. He looks like a steering job for a bumper and ought to develop into a proper graded standard hurdler / chaser. He could be versatile top wise (possesses high cruising speed) and enjoyed a cushioned surface, and perhaps some degree of juice will be to his advantage. A real candidate for G1 prizes in future'

14/1 TWAR with Hills ( a rather dismal 8/1 comparatively on Sky )

[BigChaang]

FWIW - Edwardstone likely to start off in the Shloer chase at Cheltenham and depending on how that goes, decide whether to continue at 2miles or step up to 2 1/2..

Thought it was worth mentioning as I know some people have him backed for the CC.

Cheer's Jim , I'd better hope he win's the Schloer then , Only got him for the champ. chase. .

[ComplyOrDie]

There is one horse flagged up in the top 40 of OJA with positive write ups, but not with as much a sense of a specific route is Fact to File who will be in the green and gold silks.

Few abridged quotes:

'rumoured to be one of the Monbegs top young pointers, unveiled him last Feb - at ease he tracked the pacesetters for over two miles and then inside the last 1/2 mile he improved to contest the lead, with a shake of the reins he hit the front approaching the last fence and drove clear for a 6L win recording the fastest time of the day.

Within hours was privately purchased by McManus and Mullins. He looks like a steering job for a bumper and ought to develop into a proper graded standard hurdler / chaser. He could be versatile top wise (possesses high cruising speed) and enjoyed a cushioned surface, and perhaps some degree of juice will be to his advantage. A real candidate for G1 prizes in future'

14/1 TWAR with Hills ( a rather dismal 8/1 comparatively on Sky )

I have my own thoughts about him, and what we are likely to see from him, and ultimately where he will end up, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up over hurdles this season, as he's going to be 6 by the time the festival comes around.

I do like the look of him though

[JackieMoon33]

There is one horse flagged up in the top 40 of OJA with positive write ups, but not with as much a sense of a specific route is Fact to File who will be in the green and gold silks.

Few abridged quotes:

'rumoured to be one of the Monbegs top young pointers, unveiled him last Feb - at ease he tracked the pacesetters for over two miles and then inside the last 1/2 mile he improved to contest the lead, with a shake of the reins he hit the front approaching the last fence and drove clear for a 6L win recording the fastest time of the day.

Within hours was privately purchased by McManus and Mullins. He looks like a steering job for a bumper and ought to develop into a proper graded standard hurdler / chaser. He could be versatile top wise (possesses high cruising speed) and enjoyed a cushioned surface, and perhaps some degree of juice will be to his advantage. A real candidate for G1 prizes in future'

14/1 TWAR with Hills ( a rather dismal 8/1 comparatively on Sky )

Outside of the obvious Pointers who were well documented and went through the ring, he was top of my list to follow. Don’t have OJA but glad to read positive comments.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/369572-cheltenham-2023-early-fancies?p=369895#post369895

[Lobos]

Cheer's Jim , I'd better hope he win's the Schloer then , Only got him for the champ. chase. .

Hopefully he'll waltz home in the Shloer (King has a fab record with recent runners in the race). I suspect they'll give him more than one chance over 2 miles before making any decisions. He looked really at home at Sandown which is a proper speciality course so I fully expect him to go to the Tingle Creek.