Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Lobos]

If people are fancying Edwardstone that much, surely Gentleman De Mee has to come into your thinking, after putting Edwardstone away comfortably at Aintree as a 6 year old, there should be plenty of room for improvement and available at 14/1.

Think it might be only me that thinks he has a chance !! Possibly but I'm of the opinion Aintree was one race too many for Edward whereas GDM was a fresh horse. Good alternative though.

[Lobos]

I would have to wonder what improvement Edwardstone will have now.

Yes going into open company may find some, but he’s not like a 6/7 year old going open company, he’s 8 going 9 for Cheltenham. I know shishkin had his issue at Cheltenham and we’ll need to see how he returns but if you were to ask me between those 2 edwardstone isn’t even in the same street as shishkin! Then add in Energumene to the mix. It was a very poor 2m novice chase division in the end with the loss of 2 of WPM’s main fancies. Not taking away from edwardstones Arkle win of course but I’d rather back him on the day at likely 8/1 if shishkin and energumene rock up than waste points at 16/1 imo.

That's what AP is all about. If Shishkin and Energumene don't make the race and Edward has a immaculate run up to it then the 8/1 you mention will be long gone. I remember calling Edward all sorts of names when Istabraq was all over him at huge prices......now I'm bigging him right up. I love this game.

[The Giant Bolster]

I just can't see Edwardstone winning. He will be 9 so improvement feels very unlikely. Edwardstone is consistent though. His last five runs have resulted in RPRs of 162/164/163/164/164. So you can be confident that - if he turns up - he will run to this level. However, that would only be good enough to win one of the last ten Champion Chases (2021).

I would put him behind Energuemene, Shishkin, Ferny Hollow and Gentleman de Mee based on performances to date never mind with the latter two likely to improve. So - to win - I think Edwardstone needs to turn up healthy and none of those.

Running to that level would have placed him in four of the last ten (or been in contention to do so) so I can see some sense in an EW bet but even then it could be marginal. I'm not one for EW so he's definitely not for me.

I can see him turning up at shorter odds for the race itself but I'm not going to worry too much about having him in my book for the race to be honest because I just think he's really unlikely to win.

[Lobos]

The thing is TGB, going into open company this season he'll meet horses with a much higher rating than given as a novice so if he beats them his rating will naturally increase. His time at Sandown was a fair bit quicker than his elders in the Tingle Creek so he has every chance of producing a much higher rating imo. Certainly a very intriguing race to decipher.

[Craigy14]

That's what AP is all about. If Shishkin and Energumene don't make the race and Edward has a immaculate run up to it then the 8/1 you mention will be long gone. I remember calling Edward all sorts of names when Istabraq was all over him at huge prices......now I'm bigging him right up. I love this game.

Agree but at 16/1 when I don’t think he has any chance of winning unless both the big 2 miss it, he’s a no bet for me.

As I said the 2m novice division was fairly weak and at 9 he’s not going to show too much improvement in open company imo.

[Istabraq]

As I said the 2m novice division was fairly weak and at 9 he’s not going to show too much improvement in open company imo.

All about opinions but it’s possible Edwardstone may have a pound or two improvement left in him, he was a comfortable Arkle winner in a weak/depleted renewal which should entitle him to be competitive but in Energumene and Shishkin for me we have two exceptional horses which tempera enthusiasm for Edwardstone.
He isn’t for me at 16s but I can see why Lobos has had the bet and God forbid a couple of injuries should occur he’ll be looking like a genius is snaring that price…

[Saxon Warrior]

All about opinions but it’s possible Edwardstone may have a pound or two improvement left in him, he was a comfortable Arkle winner in a weak/depleted renewal which should entitle him to be competitive but in Energumene and Shishkin for me we have two exceptional horses which tempera enthusiasm for Edwardstone.
He isn’t for me at 16s but I can see why Lobos has had the bet and God forbid a couple of injuries should occur he’ll be looking like a genius is snaring that price…

You Could easily add Gentleman De Mee to that thought too.

At the prices, this far out, he is the one I would be most interested in.

An easy win over Edwardstone, a 3lb higher RPR, and two years younger as a 6yo, trained by Willie Mullins.

Its not often a 6yo puts up such a big figure in those year-end 2M Grade 1 Novice Chases.

In the Aintree 2M Grade 1 GDM put up a 167 RPR.

Only
* Sprinter Sacre (170) and
* Douvan (176)
have bettered that in the race in the last decade, both as 6yo incidentally.

* Shishkin only put up 165 in the race as a 7yo last year.

----------------------

In the Arkle at Cheltenham there have been four horses better 167 RPR in the last decade.
Three were older than GDM
Altior 169 as a 7yo
Un De Sceaux 169 as a 7yo
Shishkin 175 as a 7yo

Only one 6yo has bettered 167 in the Arkle in a decade.
Footpad 170 as a 6yo (he wasnt 14/1 for the QMCC after that win)

When Douvan won the Arkle, he put up a 165 RPR as a 6yo. (he wasnt 14/1 for the QMCC either)

Before that, only Sprinter Sacre in 2012's Arkle with 176 as a 6yo has bettered GDM's 167 RPR since Azeryuiop (170 as a 6yo) in 2003.

The average Arkle winner in 22 races since 2000 has been rated 165/166.

----------------

Opposition

To add the context of Ferny Hollow, at Christmas last year he put up a 168 RPR, so hes a similar rating as Gentleman De Mee, but he's a year older, injury hit for 2 years, and half the price in the Champion Chase market.

In any normal year Gentleman De Mee as a 6yo with a high Novice Chase rating, in the Champion Chase market, then he would represent better than average value at 14/1 or 15/1 price boosted.

Who knows what Shishkin will return next season, and as a 9yo next March its probably his last serious chance of being a QMCC winner.

Energumene He is a 9yo next March too, and should have a second crack at the QMCC.

As a 7yo Novice he put up 168 RPR (1lb better, 1 year older) before he upped that at Punchestown to 171.
I don't recall him being 14/1 after that win (though given it was thought he could be a Ryanair type, he could have been before Punchestown).

Gentleman De Mee was withdrawn on the day. at Punchestown, after a bad scope, so didnt get the chance to better his RPR in a race he was long-odds on to win.

So a bit more improvement (at 6yo rising 7) and he's chasing the two fav's harder than we think?

--------------------------

Champion Chase

Finally, regarding where 167 RPR gets you in a Champion Chase, its not that far off winning, already, and in 8 years out of the last 10, if GDM turned up and put in a 167 next season he's likely to be 2nd or 3rd in the Champion Chase.
(the other twice, 4th, not beaten far for 3rd)

167 RPR in the last decade in the QMCC the horse would finish in

2nd
3rd
2nd
4th
3rd
3rd
4th
2nd
2nd
3rd

[Lobos]

Nice write up Saxon. Agree that GDM is also a player on the back of his Aintree win and he could easily improve again. I do think that Edwardstone probably didn't show his best at Aintree after a long season and on a sharper track and quicker ground. He was a couple of pounds below his easy Cheltenham win so it'll be interesting if they meet again. Those two against the big guns is not a bad shout.

[Eggs]

….excellent input SW, I got Gentleman de Mee in my book a while back and that price is still there.

[Saxon Warrior]

The Champion Chase has a history of being able to place in the race with an RPR in the 160s.

Probably why Novice Chasers do well in it, in their first 'open' season vs their seniors.

Energumene continued that long established trend last season.

[FinalFurlong91]

….excellent input SW, I got Gentleman de Mee in my book a while back and that price is still there.

That would be one point about both GDM and edwardstone

I don't see that price going anywhere for a good while so surely best to leave it until the start of the jumps season and lessen injury risks as much as possible

[Saxon Warrior]

That would be one point about both GDM and edwardstone

I don't see that price going anywhere for a good while so surely best to leave it until the start of the jumps season and lessen injury risks as much as possible

Absolutely, if your backing as a Single.

Or you could chuck him into a few rollups if you follow the Flat, and like that sort of bet.

Be interesting to see what Willie says about GDM, Ferny and Energumene in the 2M Grade 1 division, in the early October Stable Tours.

[Lobos]

Absolutely, if your backing as a Single.

Or you could chuck him into a few rollups if you follow the Flat, and like that sort of bet.

Be interesting to see what Willie says about GDM, Ferny and Energumene in the 2M Grade 1 division, in the early October Stable Tours.

Good point re Mullins 3. Unlikely they'll all be aimed at the 2m championship you would think ??

[Istabraq]

Happy to be proved wrong but I’m not convinced by GDM, if RPRs are to be believed his Aintree performance was 38lb better than his M Pipe effort 13 months prior, I’ve filed that Aintree run in the ‘too good to be true’ box, highly likely the season had caught up with Edwardstone by that point.
But we’ll see, I hope I am wrong as the division looks weak and in need of depth…

[Lbur4288]

Happy to be proved wrong but I’m not convinced by GDM, if RPRs are to be believed his Aintree performance was 38lb better than his M Pipe effort 13 months prior, I’ve filed that Aintree run in the ‘too good to be true’ box, highly likely the season had caught up with Edwardstone by that point.
But we’ll see, I hope I am wrong as the division looks weak and in need of depth…

I'm quite the opposite and prepared to take it all at face value. I think it's all about the trip for me - I've thought that his running style has always been quite frenetic and he'll often go hard in his races and empty the tank at anything over 2 miles. Average hurdlers turning into quality chasers isn't a rare thing and I think 14s is excellent value in context of what's actually in the market. Most of the market leaders have a question or two to answer this coming season.