Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[darlojim]

He's a machine

Paddy saying he wasn't even at his best either. They've both pulled 14L clear of Mike who's finished 22 ahead of the rest.

2 serious performances. RD will need top of the ground whereas Vega is proven on all ground now, fantastic race.

[Eggs]

….keep questioning my reasoning, but I can’t quite understand why The Nice Guy is prominent in next years BANC & NHC markets yet doesn’t appear in the Turners prices, especially given the route GDC took.

[That Horse]

….keep questioning my reasoning, but I can’t quite understand why The Nice Guy is prominent in next years BANC & NHC markets yet doesn’t appear in the Turners prices, especially given the route GDC took.

Is it not just a case of AB winners usually go for BANC? A recent comparison for Willie would be Monkfish who went AB - BANC. I wasn't doing antepost back then so not sure if the monk was ever prominent in the Marsh betting

[Exar Essay]

….keep questioning my reasoning, but I can’t quite understand why The Nice Guy is prominent in next years BANC & NHC markets yet doesn’t appear in the Turners prices, especially given the route GDC took.

I know what you mean Eggs, but I think they're very different animals. TNG looks like he wants every inch of the 3 miles (despite idling slightly yesterday) and is 2 years older at the respective stage too. Didn't look to have the speed which GDC did.

On age, it wouldn't be out of question that we're looking at winners of the 3 novice chases being 8, 8 , and 9 next year .... whilst the winner of the GC could be a 7yo.

[Eggs]

I know what you mean Eggs, but I think they're very different animals. TNG looks like he wants every inch of the 3 miles (despite idling slightly yesterday) and is 2 years older at the respective stage too. Didn't look to have the speed which GDC did.

On age, it wouldn't be out of question that we're looking at winners of the 3 novice chases being 8, 8 , and 9 next year .... whilst the winner of the GC could be a 7yo.

….good points, I understand it’s Mullins 5yo from yesterdays race that tend to go Turners route (GDC & ABP).

[Exar Essay]

….good points, I understand it’s Mullins 5yo from yesterdays race that tend to go Turners route (GDC & ABP).

ABP went to the RSA didn't he? Fell behind Presenting Percy.

[Eggs]

ABP went to the RSA didn't he? Fell behind Presenting Percy.

…possibly, I might have misread Saxons Punchestown diary in nominating those two but I think he said 2 of the 3 5yo ended up going Turners.

[Odin]

….keep questioning my reasoning, but I can’t quite understand why The Nice Guy is prominent in next years BANC & NHC markets yet doesn’t appear in the Turners prices, especially given the route GDC took.

Just had a quick glance at Willie's better class Bartlett runners in the last few years...

In 2016 (Balko Des Flos 5th) and 2018 (Real Steel 11th) went on to the following year's Turners. Janidil (4th 2020) may have gone down that route had he not fallen in his two previous novice chases.

Monfish (1st 2020), Stattler (4th 2021), Allaho (3rd 2019), Ballyward (4th 2018) all went RSA/NH Chase.

I didn't bother with the stragglers, but it's not unreasonable to suggest the two are true tried and tested routes in a way that our GDC bets were perhaps less secure. Janidil going to Turners could easily fit with knowing he wouldn't have beaten Monkfish in 2021 RSA chase.

[Saxon Warrior]

…possibly, I might have misread Saxons Punchestown diary in nominating those two but I think he said 2 of the 3 5yo ended up going Turners.

Yes,

It was a word of warning, that usually it's been a solid BANC route.
........but....2 5yo's had taken the Turners roure, including GDC.

It could've been age related, or paid related....but defo something to keep in mind if a 5yo won/ran well in that race in the future.

[Exar Essay]

Just had a quick glance at Willie's better class Bartlett runners in the last few years...

In 2016 (Balko Des Flos 5th) and 2018 (Real Steel 11th) went on to the following year's Turners. Janidil (4th 2020) may have gone down that route had he not fallen in his two previous novice chases.

Monfish (1st 2020), Stattler (4th 2021), Allaho (3rd 2019), Ballyward (4th 2018) all went RSA/NH Chase.

I didn't bother with the stragglers, but it's not unreasonable to suggest the two are true tried and tested routes in a way that our GDC bets were perhaps less secure. Janidil going to Turners could easily fit with knowing he wouldn't have beaten Monkfish in 2021 RSA chase.

Good points Odin. Taking your research further though; none of the horses who went on to run in the JLT/Marsh/Turners the following year ran in the 3 miler at Punchestown. BDF and RS stepped down to 2m4 and Janidil didn't go.

Conversely, all of the ones you've listed who went on to run in the RSA or NHC the following year followed their Albert Bartlett run by taking in the Punchestown 3 miler.

Small sample size, and Willie is Willie, but might we conclude that taking in 3 miles at Chelts and Punchestown indicates a staying trip over fences at the following year's festival?

[Istabraq]

Klassical Dream given a predictable haircut, general 10/1 now, think Boyle Sports holding the 16s…

[HoldenTheReins]

Klassical Dream given a predictable haircut, general 10/1 now, think Boyle Sports holding the 16s…

As expected but Ashdale Bob being so close probably won't work out to be good form

[Odin]

As expected but Ashdale Bob being so close probably won't work out to be good form

KD travelled really nicely through the race and into the lead even though he looked fairly average from the last to the line. I'm happy to put it down to him still feeling the effects of the galmoy run for now and actually think 10/1 is still decent value

[Istabraq]

and actually think 10/1 is still decent value

888 go 14s and some 12s out there in places (Sky and Lads from memory)…

[Exar Essay]

Didn’t do it for me. Would be worried he’d not get the hill again. Tired on the run in. Would be one for the Ryanair Hurdle if it existed.