Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[Ice]

I saw he was given an RPR of 165, his highest ever rating, which I think is about right, and that's some effort to put up your best ever performance as a 10yo.
What would concern me more about the race is how the rest fell away so tamely, the 3rd/4th/5th had only had 10 runs between them all season so none were over the top.
Could SDB just be one of those freak racehorses who hold their form into old age ? And if so is he a runner for the Stayers at 33s ?
I'm half talking myself into a small play at 33s...

I certainly wouldn't put anyone off him at 33/1, obviously his age his against him but he's just beaten most of the front few from this years stayers and like you said he seems to be improving with age.

[Odin]

Don’t disagree Ice, though I would be a little concerned that he got picked up by a much older horse and didn’t have the speed to get back up.
The likes of Flooring Porter, A Plus Tard, Elimay all got pushed out significantly after defeats before winning at Cheltenham so looks like bookies (generally) aren’t overreacting as much with FP…

I'm not convinced it's speed that he was lacking ista, I think it's more desire. If you watch both the race against sire and the race against klassical, he looks to hang/not want to go by either horse (once headed in the case of sire) so I get the impression he needs to lead pillar to post or he doesn't win. Doesn't massively put me off him as a horse because there aren't many that can stay with him over 3m but does concern me slightly (as it did for this year when nothing got close to him really)

[Istabraq]

I'm not convinced it's speed that he was lacking ista, I think it's more desire. If you watch both the race against sire and the race against klassical, he looks to hang/not want to go by either horse (once headed in the case of sire) so I get the impression he needs to lead pillar to post or he doesn't win. Doesn't massively put me off him as a horse because there aren't many that can stay with him over 3m but does concern me slightly (as it did for this year when nothing got close to him really)

Yeah I can buy that, seems odd talking about a duel staying champion in those terms though, if it was a flaw you wouldn’t believe he could win at the top level and looking at this years renewal the pack came to him and he sprinted away, why wasn’t he able to do that when SDB came to him ?
We’ll never know the answer but maybe SDB is just better than anything else he’s come up against ?
#guessing…

[JackieMoon33]

I'd hope the Ballymore based on what I saw in his PTP and his breeding.

40s now with Skybet for that race so I've added a bit more on that and also had a fair bit any race previously.

I do really like him - top of my list from the PTP field this season, followed by Barry the Butcher and Better Days Ahead.

Do you get to many PTP in person or reliant watching them online? From discussions I’ve had with various people, it’s a fascinating community by all accounts and very much an ITK crowd.

[FinalFurlong91]

Yeah I can buy that, seems odd talking about a duel staying champion in those terms though, if it was a flaw you wouldn’t believe he could win at the top level and looking at this years renewal the pack came to him and he sprinted away, why wasn’t he able to do that when SDB came to him ?
We’ll never know the answer but maybe SDB is just better than anything else he’s come up against ?
#guessing…

Maybe he went a bit quicker than he did at Cheltenham (the rest were all knackered the other day) so when SDB came upsides he simply didn't have enough left in the tank to go again.

SDB travelled unusually smoothly for him

[Monty's Pass]

Do forgive me for bringing up the bumper this early but with Firefox entered at Fairyhouse Sunday and Better Days Ahead being Bective stud owned too is it safe to say that BDA will be kept for bumpers with a possible debut at Down Royal and Firefox will go straight over hurdles next season?

[Ice]

Maybe he went a bit quicker than he did at Cheltenham (the rest were all knackered the other day) so when SDB came upsides he simply didn't have enough left in the tank to go again.

SDB travelled unusually smoothly for him

Could it be that Cheltenham took plenty out of him and he just wasn't quite at his best on Saturday ? Sdb did travel better than normal, to be fair.

[FinalFurlong91]

Could it be that Cheltenham took plenty out of him and he just wasn't quite at his best on Saturday ? Sdb did travel better than normal, to be fair.

Could be

Cromwell will have had him trained to the minute for march

[DenmanSacre]

Do you get to many PTP in person or reliant watching them online? From discussions I’ve had with various people, it’s a fascinating community by all accounts and very much an ITK crowd.

Sadly it's very rare I get a chance to go to a PTP live so have to watch them online after. Only really got in to them over the last 5 or so years but finding ones you like and following them through adds a lot to the season.

[Eggs]

I'd hope the Ballymore based on what I saw in his PTP and his breeding.

40s now with Skybet for that race so I've added a bit more on that and also had a fair bit any race previously.

I do really like him - top of my list from the PTP field this season, followed by Barry the Butcher and Better Days Ahead.

….33-1 now with Sky, possibly a few read your post.

[Odin]

Yeah I can buy that, seems odd talking about a duel staying champion in those terms though, if it was a flaw you wouldn’t believe he could win at the top level and looking at this years renewal the pack came to him and he sprinted away, why wasn’t he able to do that when SDB came to him ?
We’ll never know the answer but maybe SDB is just better than anything else he’s come up against ?
#guessing…

With regards to Cheltenham, the pack never got past him so the quirk (I'd prefer quirk to flaw as I am a flooring porter fan) would never have shown itself, assuming it even exists.

All the other elements are plausible though - SDB being the best he's come up against, Cheltenham taking it out of him, the lack of running rail (although that's the weakest of the excuses imo), the fact he did actually put in some pretty fast sectionals coming round the final two turns (off memory from watching on itv so may not be true).

I still think he's the best horse in the race and he will have a big part to play in my antepost betting this year, but I'll be worried on the day if another horse properly takes him on for the lead or is able to head him whilst he's under pressure.

[Istabraq]

I still think he's the best horse in the race and he will have a big part to play in my antepost betting this year, but I'll be worried on the day if another horse properly takes him on for the lead or is able to head him whilst he's under pressure.

I think most would agree with you there Odin, I’m just looking at prices and trying to find a few with clear ish targets and at 33/1 SDB and 25/1 Klassical Dream are a couple who have the look of value alternatives to a horse who’s generally around 6/1…

[Hurricane fly]

I think it was Ruby who made the point that at the stage where FP got a breather in at Chelts Mark Walsh had SDB press him so he didn't get the chance to

[Zachx02]

I think most would agree with you there Odin, I’m just looking at prices and trying to find a few with clear ish targets and at 33/1 SDB and 25/1 Klassical Dream are a couple who have the look of value alternatives to a horse who’s generally around 6/1…

25/1 Klassical Dream is just far too big IMO

[Spectre]

I think it was Ruby who made the point that at the stage where FP got a breather in at Chelts Mark Walsh had SDB press him so he didn't get the chance to

Exactly this. And when he was beaten by Klassical Dream at Leopardstown he couldn't either because he was having to keep tabs.

Trainers now know exactly how to get him beat if they've got one good enough. For example Willie can run a second horse in a race now to make him keep working in the lead, rather than get a breather.- It makes Klassical Dream a huge price. We've seen already if he's fresh he can beat Flooring Porter. He's done it twice, so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that he will run at the DRF and Cheltenham and nothing inbetween.