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Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

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  • FinalFurlong91
    replied
    Is the gap definitely going to close?

    Edwardstone and Energumene are the same age and they've both had 8 chase starts

    I can see the angle on taking the 16/1 in Sep/October as he could go off half that come march if well placed by king

    i think energumene would have to not turn up for him to actually win though

    Leave a comment:


  • Lobos
    replied
    With huge doubts surrounding both Ferney and Shishkin you would think Energumene is the one to beat but he had it all his own way this year including when the heavens opened which suited him enormously.
    Edwardstone does have to improve again in ratings but the gap will naturally close when he goes into open company this season as with most impressive Arkle winners. 16/1 could look an absolute gem come next March. He shouldn't be that price.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bonjers
    replied
    Edwardstone will surely go Tingle Creek v Greaneteen, who is a solid 165 horse around there and will be primed for it. I can easily see Shishkin being put away until the Game Spirit.

    Leave a comment:


  • BigChaang
    replied
    For what it's worth , I think that Edwardstone @ 16-1 is worth taking for the champion chase .
    And i have.
    A race that hasn't always lived up to expectations ,
    there's been some ' odd ' results in the past few years. The fav's not always doing so well.
    I would imagine Edwardstone will run at Kempton again after christmas, and if winning,.
    in a similar style to last time , his price will tumble . i.m.o.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kautostar
    replied
    Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

    He'd have to improve a good bit to dethrone Energumene, he's 161 the champ 176

    I'm not sure he has anything like the latent ability of him or Shiskin (god knows what will happen to him)

    Or even ferny hollow

    If Alan King places him well I could see him picking up a weak grade 1 in Britain somewhere else though especially if henderson cant get shiskin back to himself. So he may well go off shorter than he is now.
    I agree with all of that. I actually think shishkin could be the value here but only after stable tours or an entry. I think hendo will bring him along slowly and won’t be trading blows with Willie Mullins around ascot again this time.
    Edwardstone will pick up easy graded races that shishkin doesn’t run in so I agree he will shorten to a degree but can’t have him winning the champion chase unless it really cuts up.

    Leave a comment:


  • FinalFurlong91
    replied
    Originally posted by Lobos View Post

    I was against him for the Arkle all season but he destroyed them with ease. This year's Champion Chase completely fell apart so next year's might not be up to the normal standards. He has every chance.
    He'd have to improve a good bit to dethrone Energumene, he's 161 the champ 176

    I'm not sure he has anything like the latent ability of him or Shiskin (god knows what will happen to him)

    Or even ferny hollow

    If Alan King places him well I could see him picking up a weak grade 1 in Britain somewhere else though especially if henderson cant get shiskin back to himself. So he may well go off shorter than he is now.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lobos
    replied
    Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
    Just can't touch edwardstone at all, albeit I did lose out by not covering for the arkle for him to win a champion chase it would have to go like the one PTKO won as he just seems to always be hovering in the mid 160s on RPRs
    I was against him for the Arkle all season but he destroyed them with ease. This year's Champion Chase completely fell apart so next year's might not be up to the normal standards. He has every chance.

    Leave a comment:


  • FinalFurlong91
    replied
    Originally posted by BarrowNH01 View Post
    Id rather Ferny won the CC at 8/1 untouched by me than run the risk of losing out for the 3rd year in a row.
    8/1 nrnb is a solid price

    He should be double that without that concession

    Leave a comment:


  • BarrowNH01
    replied
    Id rather Ferny won the CC at 8/1 untouched by me than run the risk of losing out for the 3rd year in a row.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zachx02
    replied
    Just can't touch edwardstone at all, albeit I did lose out by not covering for the arkle for him to win a champion chase it would have to go like the one PTKO won as he just seems to always be hovering in the mid 160s on RPRs

    Leave a comment:


  • Lobos
    replied
    Originally posted by Eggs View Post
    …I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.
    At double that price the Arkle winner is definitely the forgotten horse. 16/1 is an incredible price imo especially with the Arkle winners record in the following years Champion Chase which trumps every stat there is.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ice
    replied
    Originally posted by Eggs View Post
    …I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.
    I've been on him the last two festivals and couldn't handle a third year of doing my dough on him, i do like the horse though but agree with kauto.

    Leave a comment:


  • Kautostar
    replied
    Originally posted by Eggs View Post
    …I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.
    Not really overlooked he’s 3rd fav at around 8/1. He’s talented but I couldn’t trust him to get there in one piece so he’s a no bet at the prices. I’d want double what he is now for the danger attached.

    Leave a comment:


  • Eggs
    replied
    …I wonder if Ferny Hollow is a bit overlooked @ 8-1 in a wide open Champion Chase division.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ice
    replied
    Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post

    I think Vega goes ballymore and Redemption day Supreme, after the Punchestown bumper Patrick said he thought Vega's stamina helped him get the best of redemption day even though he ran flat
    That's the way I think those 2 will go also but as usual it's mullins bingo so wouldn't be overly confident !

    Leave a comment:

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