Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[FinalFurlong91]

Yep, I have him as my banker right now I didn't like his chase debut 1 bit but he became a grade 2-1 animal over fences over the course of the season

Yes he's far from a natural jumper but he gradually improved all season

And if Willie aims him here he will be there or there abouts

there are plenty of interesting horses in the betting though

hillcrest for instance should be better over fences and up in trip

Gellino bello likely won't be grade 1 standard so could be aimed here

Then there's minella crooner, whatdeawant etc etc plenty of unexposed potential improvers who are unlikely to be good enough for the 3 mile novice chase

GDM at 156 sets a high enough standard for the rest to try and reach and any that exceed that likely won't run in the national hunt chase as they will be good enough to contend in the RSA

[Zachx02]

It's a bit of an obvious one and has probably already been mentioned but Gaillard du Mesnil for the National Hunt Chase.

Backed him down from 16/1 and will continue to take 7/1 with 365. Small field likely and he already has a rating to win the race - perfect opportunity for Willie to give Patrick a winner on Day 1.

If the NH Chase is mentioned as his target in autumn stable tours (as it was for Stattler I believe) then I'll be piling in before the 7/1 goes.

Yep, I have him as my banker right now I didn't like his chase debut 1 bit but he became a grade 2-1 animal over fences over the course of the season

[HoldenTheReins]

It's a bit of an obvious one and has probably already been mentioned but Gaillard du Mesnil for the National Hunt Chase.

Backed him down from 16/1 and will continue to take 7/1 with 365. Small field likely and he already has a rating to win the race - perfect opportunity for Willie to give Patrick a winner on Day 1.

If the NH Chase is mentioned as his target in autumn stable tours (as it was for Stattler I believe) then I'll be piling in before the 7/1 goes.

Literally have done the same. 16/1 right after Irish national, got nabbed up quick.

One for the multis.

[RoadToCheltenham]

It's a bit of an obvious one and has probably already been mentioned but Gaillard du Mesnil for the National Hunt Chase.

Backed him down from 16/1 and will continue to take 7/1 with 365. Small field likely and he already has a rating to win the race - perfect opportunity for Willie to give Patrick a winner on Day 1.

If the NH Chase is mentioned as his target in autumn stable tours (as it was for Stattler I believe) then I'll be piling in before the 7/1 goes.

[FinalFurlong91]

I just think that shishkin is overlooked and overpriced. He’s run one bad race and seems to be ignored. When he wins the tingle creek, we’ll all wonder why we didn’t back the obvious. Along with honeysuckle and brandy love, he’s one I’ll have as bankers in my antepost multiples

Surely can't touch him until he runs again with this bone condition he has

He might be fine but he may never be the horse he was

[Guinness Village]

I just think that shishkin is overlooked and overpriced. He’s run one bad race and seems to be ignored. When he wins the tingle creek, we’ll all wonder why we didn’t back the obvious. Along with honeysuckle and brandy love, he’s one I’ll have as bankers in my antepost multiples

[Madmoose]

Edwardstone will no doubt dance all the dances before the festival taking in the Shloer, Tingle Creek/Desert O, Clarence House so it will be interesting should he flop in one of the races if they explore the going up in trip option now he settles.

He and GDM are fine for roll ups at their current prices though as others have mentioned.

[Lobos]

A few other quotes from the Aintree race re Edward including his Autumn target.....

Barbury Castle-based King felt he had run a little below par, but not by much, and will now look forward to next autumn when the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be his ultimate target.

"All through the week I was getting afraid of the winner who was only 3lb behind us and had an easier prep."

"It was still a very good performance. He only ran below 2lb below his Cheltenham form. “I think on that sharp track and on better ground, the other horse was a little bit quicker. I was far from disappointed.”

"I'm thrilled with him, and would think the Shloer might be the first target next season."

[Lobos]

Oddly and quite incredible really with the ammo he has had over the years, JP McManus has never won the Champion Chase ! Not sure how many he's had run in it ? Mullins broke his duck in it this March so maybe it'll be like the buses.

[Saxon Warrior]

Racing Post Trainer Interviews after Aintree race.

Edwardstone did stuff the rest of the field by 11 lengths or more, and was only 2lb below his Arkle RPR.

https://youtu.be/C9voncdzm8o

QUOTES: "We were fresh coming here and we were hoping our freshness might be the right card to play and it looked like that. Mark was very good on GENTLEMAN DE MEE, he got him out and got him jumping. He was giving him a breather when he made a mistake at the fourth-last but Mark felt he was always in charge. He's improved in the last six or eight weeks, probably for a change of tactics and getting confidence winning races, rather than being held up and getting beaten earlier in the season. He's maturing and growing into himself, he's a big horse. I'm hoping there's more to come, we'll see if Mr McManus wants to go to Punchestown. He's entitled to be a contender in the Champion Chase. He's improved hugely" - Willie Mullins, trainer.

"I think Edwardstone has run his race, I just think the winner is a very good horse and perhaps a fresher horse as well. The best horse on the day has won but I'm thrilled with our horse" - Alan King, trainer.

[The Giant Bolster]

I see Gentleman de Mee as one of four potential winners in this division and like him as a roll-up target over the Summer.

The other thing about this division is that Mullins has three of those contenders. So it will be interesting to see how he splits them up (if he does) over the course of the season. It might be that he sends runners over more to the UK which could be a reason Edwardstone may not trim through the season and secondly it may give Henderson some challenges in thinking about how to handle Shishkin.

[Lobos]

I'm sort of on the same wavelength as Ista in that I don't think Edward was himself at Aintree and that GDM may have been slightly flattered by the win. Aintree and Cheltenham form have a habit of not going hand in hand. Edwardstone does have the festival form which is always a massive plus and the Arkle winner going on to win the following years Champion Chase is just a ridiculously crazy trend/stat. 8 years out of the last 20 or something like that. Mental. Reiterates what Saxon was saying about Novices winning the race in their first season in open company.

[Lbur4288]

Happy to be proved wrong but I’m not convinced by GDM, if RPRs are to be believed his Aintree performance was 38lb better than his M Pipe effort 13 months prior, I’ve filed that Aintree run in the ‘too good to be true’ box, highly likely the season had caught up with Edwardstone by that point.
But we’ll see, I hope I am wrong as the division looks weak and in need of depth…

I'm quite the opposite and prepared to take it all at face value. I think it's all about the trip for me - I've thought that his running style has always been quite frenetic and he'll often go hard in his races and empty the tank at anything over 2 miles. Average hurdlers turning into quality chasers isn't a rare thing and I think 14s is excellent value in context of what's actually in the market. Most of the market leaders have a question or two to answer this coming season.

[Istabraq]

Happy to be proved wrong but I’m not convinced by GDM, if RPRs are to be believed his Aintree performance was 38lb better than his M Pipe effort 13 months prior, I’ve filed that Aintree run in the ‘too good to be true’ box, highly likely the season had caught up with Edwardstone by that point.
But we’ll see, I hope I am wrong as the division looks weak and in need of depth…

[Lobos]

Absolutely, if your backing as a Single.

Or you could chuck him into a few rollups if you follow the Flat, and like that sort of bet.

Be interesting to see what Willie says about GDM, Ferny and Energumene in the 2M Grade 1 division, in the early October Stable Tours.

Good point re Mullins 3. Unlikely they'll all be aimed at the 2m championship you would think ??