Cheltenham 2023 - Early fancies

[kariminal29]

Just going off a few comments from Patrick mullins regarding redemption day and facile vega. He says redemption day is all about speed where as facile cruises into a race and has gears, it’s this statement that has led me to believe that maybe facile goes ballymore route and redemption and mercurey goes supreme. I agree in regards to Mercurey re the price. If he comes out before or at punchestown showing the same as he did on debut we can expect his price to contract heavily. I have taken the 20/1 supreme and 8/1 any race because there is a chance we won’t see those odds again. If it was difficult this year with the amount of promising horses Mullins has it’s going to be even more of a minefield next year.

[Guinness Village]

I fancy scarlet and dove for another crack at the mare's chase. If I'm not mistaken, next time around she will be better off at the weights and I was very encouraged by her run. She's always there or thereabouts and IMO 20/1 looks very fair.

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Log it in your diary, put yourself out there, and you'll be applauded. Allowing "boohoo mate, I had 33/1 on Constitution Hill" and it's a fast track to a useless environment. Hence I'll call it out wherever I see it, and applaud those who've had the courage to put themselves on the block in their diaries when they do well[/QUOTE]
Think I will clear this up again, I mistakenly read the opening post and was just listing my bets for next year(I now know this was wrong) so I don't think there was anything to call out other than me not reading the opening post properly

[Benjy23]

I fancy scarlet and dove for another crack at the mare's chase. If I'm not mistaken, next time around she will be better off at the weights and I was very encouraged by her run. She's always there or thereabouts and IMO 20/1 looks very fair.

Depends what races she wins between now and then doesn't it? I'm sure JOB is capable of plotting a path that avoids penalties though to be fair.

[Saxon Warrior]

that's interesting Sax as prior to the handicap mark ricci has him down as a supreme horse. Does this set up the supreme campaign for mercury do you think ?

Thats what I am thinking.

Incidentally the plan for Mercurey was said to be Limerick and Punchestown after he won.

There is a 4yo only Listed Bumper at Limerick and the entries came out this afternoon.

Last race on Sunday and Mercurey has the entry

[FinalFurlong91]

I fancy scarlet and dove for another crack at the mare's chase. If I'm not mistaken, next time around she will be better off at the weights and I was very encouraged by her run. She's always there or thereabouts and IMO 20/1 looks very fair.

They really need to change the penalty system for both the mares novice and mares chase

It's ridiculous that grade 3 winners are penalised when running in a grade 2

[archie]

They really need to change the penalty system for both the mares novice and mares chase

It's ridiculous that grade 3 winners are penalised when running in a grade 2

It's the same system, if not the same poundage, for every other G2. It's the way the system works.

I think the stats will show that penalties make very little difference in these races and the best horse usually wins.

[darlojim]

The Nice Guy...

Denmark said: "Willie had kept me very grounded as The Nice Guy doesn't show a lot at home but he keeps surprising him. He's well bred and during the race he looked so laid-back and relaxed. Sean gave him a fantastic ride.

"He's lightly raced and all plans are down to Willie. He may have Punchestown in mind but I wouldn't be pushing him. I'm very patient with our horses and would only want to run him on the right ground. If we keep him together, we'll look forward to him going novice chasing next season as he certainly has the size and scope to go over a fence."

[Istabraq]

It's the same system, if not the same poundage, for every other G2. It's the way the system works.

I think the stats will show that penalties make very little difference in these races and the best horse usually wins.

Didn’t Scarlett and Dove carry a 3lb pen in the Mares chase ?
It won’t always be the case but that pull can be expected to be worth more than half a length…

[FinalFurlong91]

Didn’t Scarlett and Dove carry a 3lb pen in the Mares chase ?
It won’t always be the case but that pull can be expected to be worth more than half a length…

It just doesn't seem fair or necessary to me

Penalising grade 1 and grade 2 winners has logic and makes sense

But not when you've won a listed or grade 3 race

[Benjy23]

It just doesn't seem fair or necessary to me

Penalising grade 1 and grade 2 winners has logic and makes sense

But not when you've won a listed or grade 3 race

I think the logical version is the condition? Scarlet and Dove has been penalised 3lb for winning a Grade 2. Last year Colreevy was penalised 5lb for winning a Grade 1. The only penalties that apply are to Grade 1 and 2 winners.

E.g. Elimay and Mount Ida had won listed and Grade 3 races respectively but carried no penalty this season.

[Eggs]

….last of the 20-1 Mercurey (Supreme) appears to have gone.

[JackieMoon33]

Thats what I am thinking.

Incidentally the plan for Mercurey was said to be Limerick and Punchestown after he won.

There is a 4yo only Listed Bumper at Limerick and the entries came out this afternoon.

Last race on Sunday and Mercurey has the entry

That’s annoying. I was hoping I’d have until Punchestown before I had to place any bets.

[Odin]

Keeping an eye out for Whatdeawant. Think he could be overpriced for the RSA. Might be worth a win and festival if he steps up to the 3 miler at Punchestown.

Also keeping an eye on Frontal Assault being next years Run Wild Fred.

[Exar Essay]

Keeping an eye out for Whatdeawant. Think he could be overpriced for the RSA. Might be worth a win and festival if he steps up to the 3 miler at Punchestown.

I was thinking the same but for the NHC. Willie clearly thinks he wants a trip. The sorrow in his voice having to send him over the Ballymore trip was almost comical pre-Chelts. His SL column again talks of distance and a fence being his friend. Dare I say The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner look slightly the classier animals and therefore more suited to the RSA, too? Whatdeawant (NHC) could be my big early season bet this year. Maybe a related double with St James's Gate.