Fat Jockey Podcast - 4 weeks to go - 10 tips!

[Kevloaf]

Great watch as always gents

Redemption Day is one I definitely need to play at some point but will likely hold off if he doesn’t run again, as all the rage will be for Facile Vega.

Have to say I think a bit recency bias might be creeping in, American Mike is rock solid imo, with both wins being boosted. The second on debut has won since and then the second win Battling Bessie was just beaten a nose in the mares Grade 2. Form of the second wasn’t up to much at the time but the time of the race without coming out of second gear was very impressive.

Cheers

I think in this case the recency bias has a helluva lot of sway though... Mullins has just mopped up... it's hard to argue he doesn't have a strong team and that has to set the standard.

American Mike won races Willie didn't target.... and American Mike is still pretty short, justifiably so as Gordon also knows what he's doing in the race.... but to use recency bias as the reason people are sweet on Willie's do have good reason to be... and if American Mike was 'forgotten' and drifted to an each way price I'd be considering him.... but Redemption Day at 7/1 is a better bet than American Mike for me at the prices.

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Really enjoyed this one, though had to listen in two parts. Some bets need to be placed and I'm coming round to Tiger Roll

[Craigy14]

Cheers

I think in this case the recency bias has a helluva lot of sway though... Mullins has just mopped up... it's hard to argue he doesn't have a strong team and that has to set the standard.

American Mike won races Willie didn't target.... and American Mike is still pretty short, justifiably so as Gordon also knows what he's doing in the race.... but to use recency bias as the reason people are sweet on Willie's do have good reason to be... and if American Mike was 'forgotten' and drifted to an each way price I'd be considering him.... but Redemption Day at 7/1 is a better bet than American Mike for me at the prices.

Yeah can’t argue with any of that Kev and you’re probably right, in that this year WPM does seem to have a good few top bumper horses.

But as you say as well, Elliott knows how to win one, winning 2 of the last 3 (Sir G in all but credit). 3/1 or 7/2 isn’t too bad for each way multiples imo, I can’t see him put the first 3.

[Stormez]

Really like the shouts on Porlock Bay, Bardenstown Lad & Tiger Roll.

Already on PB & BL, but you may have convinced me to top up.

Time to throw TR into a few more multis too I think.

[Morley Street]

Very enjoyable chaps and particularly liked Spectre’s case for Echoes… as one who thought she might develop into a Champion hurdler, I can’t leave her un-backed at 16s.

[Stormez]

Very enjoyable chaps and particularly liked Spectre’s case for Echoes… as one who thought she might develop into a Champion hurdler, I can’t leave her un-backed at 16s.

I’m mulling over adding her too, but for me she’s a win only bet.

She either stays or doesn’t.

If she stays then she’s the class horse in the field so should win, but if she doesn’t stay then she’ll probably fade out of the places up the hill.

[Bayoffreedom]

It's interesting re Coeur Sublime: I was talking to Peter Fahey about him a couple of weeks ago and if there is one horse that they really didn't want to see go out of the yard, it was him. I remember them saying what a beautiful mover he was and the dreaded 'different gravy' comment was used at least twice. He's never really fulfilled that type of belief/expectation but now is probably not the time to desert him completely. He showed decent course form in the Triumph so the course and travelling is not an issue.
Not so convinced as Paul but certainly not to be ignored.

[Saxon Warrior]

↵

It's interesting re Coeur Sublime: I was talking to Peter Fahey about him a couple of weeks ago and if there is one horse that they really didn't want to see go out of the yard, it was him. I remember them saying what a beautiful mover he was and the dreaded 'different gravy' comment was used at least twice. He's never really fulfilled that type of belief/expectation but now is probably not the time to desert him completely. He showed decent course form in the Triumph so the course and travelling is not an issue.
Not so convinced as Paul but certainly not to be ignored.

I'm hoping a Grand Annual entry comes his way on Tuesday.

He was the first one I backed in a Handicap when NRNB started.

Travels beautifully.

[doctorwu]

↵


I'm hoping a Grand Annual entry comes his way on Tuesday.

He was the first one I backed in a Handicap when NRNB started.

Travels beautifully.

I love him. Still follow him from his Triumph days. Just never seems to find anything at the business end. A beautiful traveller. Like him for the Grand Anal but Buddy Rich has that one in the bag.