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Fat Jockey Selection Analysis
Firstly, I hope this isn't treading on ryanh97 toes, but i was interested in looking into some statistics around the recent antepost competition. There were 113 entries, which is actually a really decent sample size to do some Crowd Sourced Analytics. This, in a nutshell, is where you get a large sample of 'experts' to give their views on a subject, these are collated and averaged out, and hopefully some insights can be obtained. I hesitate to class myself, or anyone else on this forum as an 'expert' - but if you're spending your free time on a forum about Cheltenham, several months before the festival starts - then you could argue that you have a passion for the subject and are able to demonstrate at least some level of 'expertise'.
A few caveats. Firstly, since the entries were posted we've had the DRF, and some markets have been drastically overhauled since then. Most notably the Arkle, Bartlett, Bumper and Triumph - but most races to some degree have seen changes. The exception being the handicaps where the markets have been less effected.
Second caveat, I've done this for my own benefit as much as anything, i was hoping to identify holes in my own book and try and find some value in what are now very mature markets, which i believe i have succeeded in doing.
If this post is already too long for you, skip down to the TLDR section for the summary.
So, my first job was to get all the entries out of the forum and into excel, simple enough. Then i needed to clean the data.... and oh boy. All i can say is it's a good job this forum tips better than it spells. Cleaning the data, took A LONG time, i have a new found respect for ryanh97 and everyone else that runs the competitions on here.
Once the data was in a format I could use, it was quite straightforward to break it down. I've split it out race by race to find the three most tipped horses for each race, the percentage of votes that were cast for each horse, and the perceived value (PV) of each horse. This PV value is the really interesting one in trying to find any good bets that are still out there, it's simply multiplying its current odds by the percentage of selections across the sample group. And this PV value has given some really interesting results, it essentially indicates how good a bet it is at the current prices. For clarity I've used the current odds on the standard B365 antepost market as of 08/02/2022. At the end of this there is a clear Yankee that has objectively been selected by the forum which is quite interesting.
Finally, I summed the percentage of selections across the top three in each race to try and identify which races we, as a collective on the forum, we are struggling with the most. So without further ado, here are the results -
Supreme
Constitution hill - 38% - 1.14PV
Sir Gerhard - 26% - 1.19%
Jonbon - 21% - 0.83PV
Arkle
*** This race was affected by the Ferny news that came out during the period of posting selections, so ive had to remove all the ferny votes, therefore this race is using a smaller sample size. Additionally this market was affected by the DRF ***
blue lord - 63% - 2.48PV
Edwardstone - 14% - 0.56PV
Haut En Couleurs - 10% - 1.1PV
Given that this market was totally blow apart by the Ferny injury (Ferny was the most selected horse in this race), and Riviere D'Etel only polled 4% of the votes at the time, I'm happy to just disregard this data.
Ultima
Does He Know - 12% - 1.36PV
Remastered - 9% - 1.85PV
Phoenix Way - 9% - 1.5PV
Champion Hurdle
honeysuckle - 90.27% - 1.41PV
appreciate it - 2.65% - 0.21PV
Teahupoo - 1.77% - 0.46PV
Mares Hurdle
Telmesomethinggirl - 62.83% - 2.8PV
Heaven Help Us - 11.5% - 1.49PV
Burning Victory - 9.73% - 1.07PV
Boodles
Gaelic Warrior - 26.55% - 1.85PV
Iberique du Seuil - 16.81% - 3.53PV
Britzka - 15.93% - 2.70PV
NH Chase
Run Wild Fred - 70.80% - 3.18PV
Vanillier - 7.08% - 1.06PV
Capodanno - 6.19% - 0.74PV
Ballymore
Dysart dynamo - 52.21% - 3.13PV
Ginto - 9.73% - 0.87PV
Walking On Air - 8.85% - 0.97PV
RSA
Galopin Des Champs - 89.38% - 1.87PV
Bravemansgame - 4.42% - 0.19PV
Ahoy Senor - 3.54% - 0.23PV
Coral Cup
Gowel Road - 21.24% - 3.61PV
Unexpected Party - 16.81% - 2.52PV
Fils doudairies - 8.85% - 1.50PV
Champion Chase
Shishkin - 72.57% - 1.21PV
Energumene - 8.85% - 0.38PV
Allaho - 1.77% - 0.26PV
Cross Country
tiger roll - 54.87% - 3.56PV
Prengarde - 30.09% - 1.50PV
Shady Operator - 6.19% - 0.68PV
Grand Annual
Buddy Rich - 12.39% - 1.61PV
Thedevilscoachman - 11.50% - 2.99PV
Brave Seasca - 9.73% - 1.26PV
Bumper
American mike - 52.21% - 2.08PV
Facile Vega - 34.51 - 0.34PV
Redemption Day - 7.96% - 0.55PV
*** Data doesn't reflect the Facile Vega demolition job at the DRF ***
Marsh
Bob olinger - 87.61% - 1.06PV
Lhomme Presse - 6.19% - 0.34PV
Galopin des Champs - 2.65 - 0.07PV
Pertemps
dunboyne - 28.32% - 3.11PV
Winter Fog - 16.81% - 2.85PV
Sire du Berlais - 9.73% - 1.65PV
Ryanair
allaho - 93.81% - 2.11PV
Energumene - 2.65% - 0.14PV
Saint Calvados - 1.77% - 0.19PV
Stayers
Flooring Porter - 44.25% - 1.99PV
champ - 31.86% - 2.23PV
Klassical Dream - 19.47% - 1.36PV
Plate
Fusil Raffles - 17.70% - 3.71PV
Gabynako - 13.27% - 2.25PV
Noble Yeats - 12.39% - 3.22PV
Mares Novice
brandy love - 31.86% - 1.75PV
Allegorie De Vassy - 31.86% - 1.19PV
Dinoblue - 17.70% - 1.41PV
Kim Muir
floueur - 21.24% - 2.33PV
Death Duty - 20.35% - 5.29PV
Frontal Assault - 13.27% - 1.46PV
Triumph
vauban - 48.67% - 1.58PV
Fil Dor - 26.55% - 2.38PV
Pied Piper - 6.19% - 0.20PV
County
echoes in rain - 25.66% - 2.82PV
West Cork - 14.16% - 1.55PV
Saint Felicien - 13.27% - 2.78PV
Albert Bartlett
Journey With Me - 42.48% - 5.52PV
Hollow Games - 14.16% - 1.55PV
Eric Bloodaxe - 12.39% - 4.21PV
Gold Cup
Galvin - 47.79% - 2.62PV
A Plus Tard - 34.51 - 1.38PV
minella indo - 8.85% - 0.57PV
Foxhunters
Porlock bay - 43.36% - 5.63PV
Bob And Co - 19.47% - 1.75PV
Winged Leader - 11.50% - 0.86PV
Mares Chase
Concertista - 35.40% - 1.32PV
Elimay - 27.43% - 1.92PV
Mount Ida - 15.04% - 1.05PV
Martin Pipe
Chemical Energy - 40.71% - 5.29PV
langer dan - 12.39% - 1.36PV
Mr Fred Rogers - 9.73% - 1.65PV
******* TLDR ********
The most popular horse on the forum is ALLAHO for the Ryanair (94% of selections), he also scores a respectable 2.11PV showing that his current price (5/4 B365) is still decent value.
The most selected horses were -
Allaho (94%)
Honeysuckle (90%)
Galopin Des Champs (89%)
Bob Olinger (87%)
Shishkin (72%)
There's a big dropoff between Bob and Shishkin, so clearly the top 4 are far and away the most selected, i wouldn't put anyone off backing the 4-horse accumulator (best price 15.5/1 unibet). Although history tells us they won't all win.
Of the horses currently priced between 2/1 and 10/1, the following are the most popular -
Run Wild Fred (71%)
Telmesomethinggirl (63%)
Tiger Roll (55%)
Dysart Dynamo - ballymore (52%)
American Mike (52%)
However there are few issues here. Firstly RWF is a forum favourite and has been widely tipped here all the way since last March, so its unclear how much he's been selected purely out of pocket-talk.
TigerRoll obviously is a legend so that may be influencing selections for him.
The forum also believes (or hopes) that Dysart Dynamo goes to the Ballymore, and American Mike's votes were taken pre DRF, so would not poll as highly now.
Of the horses at 10/1+, the following are the most popular -
Dunboyne - Pertemps (28%)
Echoes in Rain - county (26%)
Gowel Road - Coral Cup (21%)
Floueur - Kim Muir (21%)
Death Duty - Kim Muir (20%)
*** Best Value Still Available ***
When you factor in the PV score there was a standout Yankee that was head and shoulders above the rest -
Porlock Bay (12/1 B365) - Foxhunters
Journey With Me (12/1 B365) - Albert Bartlett
Chemical Energy (12/1 B365) - Martin Pipe
Death Duty (25/1 B365) - Kim Muir
Obviously JWM destination is up in the air, so if you don't want to take that risk then you could sub in with -
Fusil Raffles (20/1 B365) - Plate
Porlock Bay being the best value selection on the whole forum is.... unexpected, but i think we can take that with a pinch of salt and more likely reflects the disdain that a lot of people have for that race, so just picked last years winner by default. With that in mind some people may prefer to sub in the next best in the list which was
Gowel Road (16/1 B365) - Coral Cup
Any combination of the above represent pretty good bets in my opinion, and I've placed a few yankees based on these results myself already. But more importantly, these are OBJECTIVELY this forums best bets. Every year we get a few different members to pick the 'forum yankees', i would argue that the above are more representative of a 'forum yankee' than any individual could pick, so it will be interesting to see how they perform.
*** Toughest races ***
The Ultima and Grand Annual are standouts as the two toughest races, where the top three selections make up just 30% and 34% of the total selections respectively. Although this was done prior to Spectre's Galahad Quest selection (who polled just 5% of the votes at the time). It's interesting that this years Naiad pick just happened to be in the race with the widest range of selections across the forum, if Spectre gets this right it really will a monumental piece of tipping.
*** Conclusion ***
I hope someone has found this useful, as a book builder I've used it to identify and plug some holes, whilst also identifying some of the better value bets that are still out there and topping up on those. Thank-you to ryanh97 for all his work organising the competition which i have a new found respect for, and thank-you to the 113 people who submitted there entries.
*** edit - accidentally posted in members area so moved it ***
A few caveats. Firstly, since the entries were posted we've had the DRF, and some markets have been drastically overhauled since then. Most notably the Arkle, Bartlett, Bumper and Triumph - but most races to some degree have seen changes. The exception being the handicaps where the markets have been less effected.
Second caveat, I've done this for my own benefit as much as anything, i was hoping to identify holes in my own book and try and find some value in what are now very mature markets, which i believe i have succeeded in doing.
If this post is already too long for you, skip down to the TLDR section for the summary.
So, my first job was to get all the entries out of the forum and into excel, simple enough. Then i needed to clean the data.... and oh boy. All i can say is it's a good job this forum tips better than it spells. Cleaning the data, took A LONG time, i have a new found respect for ryanh97 and everyone else that runs the competitions on here.
Once the data was in a format I could use, it was quite straightforward to break it down. I've split it out race by race to find the three most tipped horses for each race, the percentage of votes that were cast for each horse, and the perceived value (PV) of each horse. This PV value is the really interesting one in trying to find any good bets that are still out there, it's simply multiplying its current odds by the percentage of selections across the sample group. And this PV value has given some really interesting results, it essentially indicates how good a bet it is at the current prices. For clarity I've used the current odds on the standard B365 antepost market as of 08/02/2022. At the end of this there is a clear Yankee that has objectively been selected by the forum which is quite interesting.
Finally, I summed the percentage of selections across the top three in each race to try and identify which races we, as a collective on the forum, we are struggling with the most. So without further ado, here are the results -
Supreme
Constitution hill - 38% - 1.14PV
Sir Gerhard - 26% - 1.19%
Jonbon - 21% - 0.83PV
Arkle
*** This race was affected by the Ferny news that came out during the period of posting selections, so ive had to remove all the ferny votes, therefore this race is using a smaller sample size. Additionally this market was affected by the DRF ***
blue lord - 63% - 2.48PV
Edwardstone - 14% - 0.56PV
Haut En Couleurs - 10% - 1.1PV
Given that this market was totally blow apart by the Ferny injury (Ferny was the most selected horse in this race), and Riviere D'Etel only polled 4% of the votes at the time, I'm happy to just disregard this data.
Ultima
Does He Know - 12% - 1.36PV
Remastered - 9% - 1.85PV
Phoenix Way - 9% - 1.5PV
Champion Hurdle
honeysuckle - 90.27% - 1.41PV
appreciate it - 2.65% - 0.21PV
Teahupoo - 1.77% - 0.46PV
Mares Hurdle
Telmesomethinggirl - 62.83% - 2.8PV
Heaven Help Us - 11.5% - 1.49PV
Burning Victory - 9.73% - 1.07PV
Boodles
Gaelic Warrior - 26.55% - 1.85PV
Iberique du Seuil - 16.81% - 3.53PV
Britzka - 15.93% - 2.70PV
NH Chase
Run Wild Fred - 70.80% - 3.18PV
Vanillier - 7.08% - 1.06PV
Capodanno - 6.19% - 0.74PV
Ballymore
Dysart dynamo - 52.21% - 3.13PV
Ginto - 9.73% - 0.87PV
Walking On Air - 8.85% - 0.97PV
RSA
Galopin Des Champs - 89.38% - 1.87PV
Bravemansgame - 4.42% - 0.19PV
Ahoy Senor - 3.54% - 0.23PV
Coral Cup
Gowel Road - 21.24% - 3.61PV
Unexpected Party - 16.81% - 2.52PV
Fils doudairies - 8.85% - 1.50PV
Champion Chase
Shishkin - 72.57% - 1.21PV
Energumene - 8.85% - 0.38PV
Allaho - 1.77% - 0.26PV
Cross Country
tiger roll - 54.87% - 3.56PV
Prengarde - 30.09% - 1.50PV
Shady Operator - 6.19% - 0.68PV
Grand Annual
Buddy Rich - 12.39% - 1.61PV
Thedevilscoachman - 11.50% - 2.99PV
Brave Seasca - 9.73% - 1.26PV
Bumper
American mike - 52.21% - 2.08PV
Facile Vega - 34.51 - 0.34PV
Redemption Day - 7.96% - 0.55PV
*** Data doesn't reflect the Facile Vega demolition job at the DRF ***
Marsh
Bob olinger - 87.61% - 1.06PV
Lhomme Presse - 6.19% - 0.34PV
Galopin des Champs - 2.65 - 0.07PV
Pertemps
dunboyne - 28.32% - 3.11PV
Winter Fog - 16.81% - 2.85PV
Sire du Berlais - 9.73% - 1.65PV
Ryanair
allaho - 93.81% - 2.11PV
Energumene - 2.65% - 0.14PV
Saint Calvados - 1.77% - 0.19PV
Stayers
Flooring Porter - 44.25% - 1.99PV
champ - 31.86% - 2.23PV
Klassical Dream - 19.47% - 1.36PV
Plate
Fusil Raffles - 17.70% - 3.71PV
Gabynako - 13.27% - 2.25PV
Noble Yeats - 12.39% - 3.22PV
Mares Novice
brandy love - 31.86% - 1.75PV
Allegorie De Vassy - 31.86% - 1.19PV
Dinoblue - 17.70% - 1.41PV
Kim Muir
floueur - 21.24% - 2.33PV
Death Duty - 20.35% - 5.29PV
Frontal Assault - 13.27% - 1.46PV
Triumph
vauban - 48.67% - 1.58PV
Fil Dor - 26.55% - 2.38PV
Pied Piper - 6.19% - 0.20PV
County
echoes in rain - 25.66% - 2.82PV
West Cork - 14.16% - 1.55PV
Saint Felicien - 13.27% - 2.78PV
Albert Bartlett
Journey With Me - 42.48% - 5.52PV
Hollow Games - 14.16% - 1.55PV
Eric Bloodaxe - 12.39% - 4.21PV
Gold Cup
Galvin - 47.79% - 2.62PV
A Plus Tard - 34.51 - 1.38PV
minella indo - 8.85% - 0.57PV
Foxhunters
Porlock bay - 43.36% - 5.63PV
Bob And Co - 19.47% - 1.75PV
Winged Leader - 11.50% - 0.86PV
Mares Chase
Concertista - 35.40% - 1.32PV
Elimay - 27.43% - 1.92PV
Mount Ida - 15.04% - 1.05PV
Martin Pipe
Chemical Energy - 40.71% - 5.29PV
langer dan - 12.39% - 1.36PV
Mr Fred Rogers - 9.73% - 1.65PV
******* TLDR ********
The most popular horse on the forum is ALLAHO for the Ryanair (94% of selections), he also scores a respectable 2.11PV showing that his current price (5/4 B365) is still decent value.
The most selected horses were -
Allaho (94%)
Honeysuckle (90%)
Galopin Des Champs (89%)
Bob Olinger (87%)
Shishkin (72%)
There's a big dropoff between Bob and Shishkin, so clearly the top 4 are far and away the most selected, i wouldn't put anyone off backing the 4-horse accumulator (best price 15.5/1 unibet). Although history tells us they won't all win.
Of the horses currently priced between 2/1 and 10/1, the following are the most popular -
Run Wild Fred (71%)
Telmesomethinggirl (63%)
Tiger Roll (55%)
Dysart Dynamo - ballymore (52%)
American Mike (52%)
However there are few issues here. Firstly RWF is a forum favourite and has been widely tipped here all the way since last March, so its unclear how much he's been selected purely out of pocket-talk.
TigerRoll obviously is a legend so that may be influencing selections for him.
The forum also believes (or hopes) that Dysart Dynamo goes to the Ballymore, and American Mike's votes were taken pre DRF, so would not poll as highly now.
Of the horses at 10/1+, the following are the most popular -
Dunboyne - Pertemps (28%)
Echoes in Rain - county (26%)
Gowel Road - Coral Cup (21%)
Floueur - Kim Muir (21%)
Death Duty - Kim Muir (20%)
*** Best Value Still Available ***
When you factor in the PV score there was a standout Yankee that was head and shoulders above the rest -
Porlock Bay (12/1 B365) - Foxhunters
Journey With Me (12/1 B365) - Albert Bartlett
Chemical Energy (12/1 B365) - Martin Pipe
Death Duty (25/1 B365) - Kim Muir
Obviously JWM destination is up in the air, so if you don't want to take that risk then you could sub in with -
Fusil Raffles (20/1 B365) - Plate
Porlock Bay being the best value selection on the whole forum is.... unexpected, but i think we can take that with a pinch of salt and more likely reflects the disdain that a lot of people have for that race, so just picked last years winner by default. With that in mind some people may prefer to sub in the next best in the list which was
Gowel Road (16/1 B365) - Coral Cup
Any combination of the above represent pretty good bets in my opinion, and I've placed a few yankees based on these results myself already. But more importantly, these are OBJECTIVELY this forums best bets. Every year we get a few different members to pick the 'forum yankees', i would argue that the above are more representative of a 'forum yankee' than any individual could pick, so it will be interesting to see how they perform.
*** Toughest races ***
The Ultima and Grand Annual are standouts as the two toughest races, where the top three selections make up just 30% and 34% of the total selections respectively. Although this was done prior to Spectre's Galahad Quest selection (who polled just 5% of the votes at the time). It's interesting that this years Naiad pick just happened to be in the race with the widest range of selections across the forum, if Spectre gets this right it really will a monumental piece of tipping.
*** Conclusion ***
I hope someone has found this useful, as a book builder I've used it to identify and plug some holes, whilst also identifying some of the better value bets that are still out there and topping up on those. Thank-you to ryanh97 for all his work organising the competition which i have a new found respect for, and thank-you to the 113 people who submitted there entries.
*** edit - accidentally posted in members area so moved it ***
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