Fat Jockey Selection Analysis

[Spectre]

That is a top piece of work Sharp Hat. And the conclusions all make sense too.

Thanks for putting what must have been a considerable amount of time and effort behind it.

[Quevega]

You can always rely on this forum for one thing.
Just when you start thinking this Cheltenham festival obsession is taking over your life.
Someone posts something that demonstrates to you, that at least you're not as consumed as some others are.
So relax and crack on.

So thanks for that Sharphat.

And an excellent piece of work

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Great work SharpHat - enjoyed reading it and the logic applied. Is the Perceived Value metric a well established and accepted method or was it devised by yourself for this exercise? Either way I like it as it puts easily understandable numbers to lots of often confusing words

[SharpHat]

Great work SharpHat - enjoyed reading it and the logic applied. Is the Perceived Value metric a well established and accepted method or was it devised by yourself for this exercise? Either way I like it as it puts easily understandable numbers to lots of often confusing words

No the PV was just something I invented as it seemed to make sense to me, and made it easier to see discrepancies in price vs popularity

[SharpHat]

Excellent read.
Why don’t you put up your preferred four for the forum charge yankee…

If I were to select 4 using this method it would have to be

Porlock Bay (12/1 B365) - Foxhunters
Chemical Energy (12/1 B365) - Martin Pipe
Death Duty (25/1 B365) - Kim Muir
Fusil Raffles (20/1 B365) - Plate

The top 3 came out clear above everything else and I'd be confident in them having solid place claims at least. In fourth spot I'd love to have JWM for the bartlett, mostly because I'm heavily invested in that result myself, but everyday it appears less likely, so Fusil is a decent sub at the prices

[Istabraq]

If I were to select 4 using this method it would have to be

Porlock Bay (12/1 B365) - Foxhunters
Chemical Energy (12/1 B365) - Martin Pipe
Death Duty (25/1 B365) - Kim Muir
Fusil Raffles (20/1 B365) - Plate

The top 3 came out clear above everything else and I'd be confident in them having solid place claims at least. In fourth spot I'd love to have JWM for the bartlett, mostly because I'm heavily invested in that result myself, but everyday it appears less likely, so Fusil is a decent sub at the prices

That’s good enough for me.
I would also suggest this gets added to the monthly yankees as a mid month addition.
Excellent work here…

[RufusFlynn]

SharpHat Fantastic write up there - thanks for putting the work in.

Excellent summary of the forums views at this point - presumably most of the most regular posters made an entry so should be fairly representative.

Thanks again

[Kevloaf]

Is it easy to see if anyone had every single 'most popular' pick?

I can't even remember what I had tbf

[Odin]

Yeah this is a great idea, we would have to be abit stricter with making sure people follow the set format when posting tho otherwise it would become a right ballache

Agreed. Something like a Google forms or Google sheets would be ideal I reckon. If the options could be synced up to oddschecker in the form of a dynamic list or something like that it could actually be really simple to just set up a thread at four times across the year (e.g. post-punchestown, pre-showcase meeting, post-xmas, post-drf) and then work from those lists. I'd like to think we could get 50+ responses at each time point which could give some decent results. Just a thought - would need someone smarter than me to set up the Google Doc anyway!

[Hill of bones]

I really like this. Great stuff, sharpHat, thank you. I've been meaning to get Gowel Road, Chemical Energy and Death Duty onside, and this has made my mind up for me - singles and a trixie it is.

BTW only 3.75% for ADV in the mare's novice?

[Kevloaf]

BTW only 3.75% for ADV in the mare's novice?

That surprised me as well... although I've double checked and I also went for Brandy Love!

Maybe it was when PT had chosen to ride!

[Middle_Of_March]

That really is superb analysis. I can’t imagine how long this would’ve taken you too.

[Johnoman66]

Great read Sharphat, fair play for putting all that effort in

[charlie]

Some incredible work here SharpHat. Must have taken lots of time, thank you

[SharpHat]

I really like this. Great stuff, sharpHat, thank you. I've been meaning to get Gowel Road, Chemical Energy and Death Duty onside, and this has made my mind up for me - singles and a trixie it is.

BTW only 3.75% for ADV in the mare's novice?

Just been back and checked this and you're right, the percentage for ADV was incorrect i've updated it now, it was due to the many, many different spellings of Allegorie De Vassy