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What seems to have been missed/ignored with Nassalam is that he was going to run at the December meeting over 3m 2f but overnight snow prevented the wagon from leaving the yard.
I remember backing him that morning at a fairly short price, was very well fancied.
It won’t satisfy the doubters about his ability to stay but it does show this isn’t a new plan, stepping up has been on their mind for a while…
…Moore says (full quote in Stable Tour thread) “…..he’s been crying out for 3m, some soft ground wouldn’t go amiss’.
Well said Many Clouds. I for one feel very humbled that the likes of Spectre, and a big call out to Saxon Warrior's work as well, offer their well thought out reasoning, for all our benefits. I can't thank them enough and I'm confident many others here are of similar opinion.
Oh well, an overbet 2.4m horse in Nassalam has been all the rage. When will people learn........
ALL OF THE WINNERS THIS CENTURY HAD RECORDED THEIR BEST RPR OVER AT LEAST 3 MILES
I have to admit that I was far more confident that you'd call out this stat, than I would ever be about any 'Naiad' Doctor Wu
Of course I can't argue with any stat. They are all factually correct, until they aren't.
If you can find a horse in the race that meets every stat, what happens when it doesn't win? Were that stats incorrect? No they weren't. They were a matter of retrospective fact. Did someone not tell the horse. Or was it just that there were other factors that hadn't been considered. Essentially the stats horse was beaten by a better handicapped horse under conditions that suited that one best. The key if you want any kind of price is to find that horse, and perhaps the reasons why others easily won't.
And what happens if all or most of the handicap winners this year don't meet every stat? That's likely to be the case of course, just as it is every year. Would you concede that you back horses that don't miss the stats, or don't you have many handicap winners, because one of those two things must be true.
Stats in my opinion should only ever be used to provide shortlists of horses that have met 70-80% of them. Being a slave to them is a guarantee you'll have losing accounts. You have to trust your judgement, and information at hand. If a horse doesn't meet a stat, and it may viewed as an important one, I want to find good reasons why it might defy that stat, and that takes more than form study. You need information, or you're guessing. In this case I have information that suggests a high probability that Nassalam will be a better horse over this trip, plus a few other things. Can I guarantee he wins? Of course not. This game would be easy if I could and I'd still be backing him at evens. On my methods I strongly believe that on probability he has the best chance of winning despite missing an important stat. And that's because I have very good reason to believe the stat isn't relevant in this case. Whatever happens I expect a very good run for our money, and I'm very hopeful of the right result on the day.
I'll also reiterate that there's no compulsion for anyone to join in. And I think you may be missing the point. The reason we all do this, is because we're a band of Fat Jockey Brothers all united by the same passion and obsession, who get a real buzz from this, all the way through to the race itself. It also makes what could be a comparative lowlight race at the Festival into one of the highlights, whatever the result. And if he happened to win, the roof will be coming off everywhere as he crosses the line, with one almighty celebration when we've collectively put it up to the bookies. And in a nutshell that's it for me. We don't do it for the bet, we do it for the buzz and the camaraderie. It's just a quirky thing to do that unites us every year.
I know doing the 'Naiad' each year isn't going to be for some, And that's fine. I'd be fairly confident though, that almost all of the people who joined in had already backed something else, or have alternative views. Some may be against Nassalam for the same reasons as you. But they still joined in because they get it. It's because we are a group of passionate likeminded people who talk about this together 24/7 for 365 days a year, and it's just a really nice thing for everyone to come together and do.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Everyone's an individual and have different characters don't forget and as long as it's not hateful, then everyone is entitled to chip in with what they think or believe.
It's open to ridicule or criticism though. IMO
That's just Dr Wu's thing.
If Nassalam wins and Hermes Allen he'll have to move on to the next Stat that floats his boat, but until this happens I enjoy him spewing every now and again.
And he has got a point, for now.
I'll also reiterate that there's no compulsion for anyone to join in.
I know doing the 'Naiad' each year isn't going to be for some, And that's fine.
This is exactly it. No one is forced to back the horse.
I would imagine 99% of members know the RPR stat because it's been done to death now. I think we can draw a line under it for this season. Use it for your own use but there's no need for the repetitive posts.
I'm not going to pretend Nassalam would be near the top of my list, but I got involved because it is fun and is part of being a big gamble, and once again a big thanks to Spectre for taking the time to find us one
Everyone's an individual and have different characters don't forget and as long as it's not hateful, then everyone is entitled to chip in with what they think or believe.
It's open to ridicule or criticism though. IMO
That's just Dr Wu's thing.
If Nassalam wins and Hermes Allen he'll have to move on to the next Stat that floats his boat, but until this happens I enjoy him spewing every now and again.
And he has got a point, for now.
Totally agree, this is what this place is built on and why so much success is spread across members, however, language is important and the ‘When will people learn’ is, for me, disrespectful and unnecessary and can only have a negative impact and we can all talk to the wife if we want that !
So debate and content has always been excellent, tone less so…
Totally agree, this is what this place is built on and why so much success is spread across members, however, language is important and the ‘When will people learn’ is, for me, disrespectful and unnecessary and can only have a negative impact and we can all talk to the wife if we want that !
So debate and content has always been excellent, tone less so…
Absolutely.
Although tone can be interpreted differently.
The example you used will have grated with some but certainly didn't for me.
But again, that's just different people doing their own thing.
I'll misjudge my own or someone else's tone from time to time, it just happens.
Totally agree, this is what this place is built on and why so much success is spread across members, however, language is important and the ‘When will people learn’ is, for me, disrespectful and unnecessary and can only have a negative impact and we can all talk to the wife if we want that !
So debate and content has always been excellent, tone less so…
Exactly this Israbraq, the tone of the comment is disrespectful as you say. Just let people who want to bet on the Naid enjoy the moment and lead up to the race. We all make judgements if we wish to back and for how much. Sure Paul does not mind comments on the Naid, for or anti, but no need to phrase it in such a spiky way.
I don't take opposing views in the wrong way, and quite enjoy the banter to be honest. Just debate really. If we all agreed on the same horse this place would be pretty boring.
The only point I'm really making above is not to mistake why we all do this. The horse to some degree is irrelevant.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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