Doing A Naiad 2022

[Big Bucks]

Ahhh finally made my mind up! Strap me in!

[Birds Nest]

I'll come along for the ride too, hope too see you at the spot too..

[Spectre]

Just arrived, and heading to the Plough in Prestbury shortly for a quick one before heading off to the Preview at the Football Club. Already in the mood and raring to go.

Can't wait to catch up with everyone tomorrow.

[Penzance]

Just finished work! Can’t wait now! Early to bed early to rise for the short trip down from West Midlands! Come on Tea Clipper!

[Mighty]

Just arrived, and heading to the Plough in Prestbury shortly for a quick one before heading off to the Preview at the Football Club. Already in the mood and raring to go.

Can't wait to catch up with everyone tomorrow.

My favourite pub Spectre - you’ve got great taste! Will be arriving down on Wednesday for the final two days. Hopefully see you in there or on the course and good luck to all those on the Naiad mark 2!

[Spectre]

It's our local when we're down here Mighty. Hopefully I'll see you in there at some point? We'll be there before and after races most days.

A quick update on the 'mini-Naiad'

10 points on at 33/1, 3.75 on at 22/1, 57.5 points on at 20/1,15 points on at 16/1, 20 points on at 12/1. Returning 2684.75 points for the win, and 514.75 points for the place.

I'm getting close to Naiad returns of 2700 points, and I don't want to re-name the bet, so just small top ups now. Down to 7/1 is fine, but I'd stop there.

[Milbear0]

For those that don't watch the podcasts, I've been chipping away at Tea Clipper for some time now. There's only one 'Naiad' each season, and that went west because Nick Williams thought it was a far better idea to completely ruin Galahad's Quest's campaign. But Tea Clipper would be my nomination if we were to have a second go.

He's very well handicapped, and will need the step up in trip to 3 miles. Before anyone jumps on the stat that he hasn't produced his best RPR over 3 miles, I don't care. He's a Stowaway, and he will absolutely be at is best over that trip. It looks as though he's been held on to over the shorter trip to get a favourable mark. He has a mark of 145, but has already done a 153 RPR over a trip too short, and I think he can be a high 150's touching 160 horse, and if I'm right he will be very hard to beat.

He was 3rd in the Coral Cup last season on the old course, so we know he acts on it. By comparison, Floueur who is all the rage now, and will possibly go off favourite, was 3rd in the Pipe on the new course. I've rated the two races, and I have Tea Clipper marked up after being hampered at the last, and on my figure I had him 5lb ahead comparatively. He was just behind Craigneche giving him weight, and as I said hampered after the last flight too. Craigneche was one that many had high hopes for as a Brown Advisory horse this season including Nicky Henderson, which usually takes a 160 or greater performance if he was in that class, so if you liked him, you'd have to like Tea Clipper.

He likes to be prominent, which is vital in an Ultima, and he's guaranteed to get his required underfoot conditions, plus Tom Lacey's horses are absolutely flying at the moment and couldn't be in better form. But the icing on the cake is he had the wind op back in January, and they've reached for first time headgear too. Neither are coincidence, and both have been done so he has significant improvement to come in this race. Literally everything has come together to make him a perfect Ultima horse. I expect him to make a huge improvement tomorrow, and run a very big race. I think he'll win, but I can't have him out of the places, which is very important criteria for a 'Naiad'.

I've been chipping away from 33/1 down for about 10 days now, and had some significant bets yesterday with extra places. He's still available at 16/1 today and I've had a bit more, and I'll continue to back him in to single figures. I think he may be vying for favouritism tomorrow afternoon, and I'll continue to back him down to 7/1 which is where I'll stop. 7/1 is where I have his correct price on my tissue in the context of the race. Given his profile I think he will go off at single figures, and probably somewhere near my tissue price. Whether you join me is your call, as it's a fairly late play for people who already have bets down. But if you like him and have backed him already perhaps have a top up, or if you haven't backed him I'd perhaps recommend at least a saver at a value price.

For transparency I have 10 points on at 33/1, 3.75 on at 22/1, 57.5 points on at 20/1, and 15 points on at 16/1. So far returning 2352.75 points for the win, and 446.75 points for the place. The aim is to finish up with an approximate 2500 point win position and 500 point place position. If it comes off, the place alone will be my single biggest return on a horse this Festival.

There's a spot all the way round the back of the parade ring on the same side as the weighing room, at the presentation area end of the parade ring. It's a dead end as far as you can go. So for anyone down there, I'm going to watch the race by the big screen at the parade ring for anyone that wants to shout him home and help me celebrate. And it's perhaps a good opportunity to get a few Festival Fat Jockey's together.

I'm heading down there now, so this will likely be my last post until after it's all over, so the very best of luck everyone. Have a great Festival, and hopefully a profitable one too.

Spectre, you’ve made a comment about *continuing* to back horses down to about 7/1 which I find confusing. If he’s available at 16/1 following decs why would you chase an evaporating price rather than get your groove on at the better 16s?
One and done as it were, Yorkie style

[Many Clouds]

What price do we think tea clipper is going to come in to? Iv backed it on exchange for a decent wedge at 20.0 with a view to laying the stake off lower down to get a nice free bet. Currently at 16.0 to lay

[somer1]

Well spotted Paul. I've giving myself homework to do.
100 lines of ........
I must learn to back E/W
I must learn to back E/W
I must learn to back E/W
Give me an hour or so

[Tickety Boo]

Great judgement Paul ran a good race and just for a moment looked like was going to be closer.!!!!

[Redbridge]

Great judgement Paul ran a good race and just for a moment looked like was going to be closer.!!!!

Paul, a big thanks from me and we had an excellent run yesterday, keep the Naiad alive because it brings great fun to someone like me and many others.

[somer1]

Looking forward to this years as its something the whole forum gets involved in. And great to see the bookies shit themselves.

[Spectre]

I'm already working on it Somer. There's a good shortlist forming, and I'm working away in the background trying to establish running plans.

Hopefully we can do it live again this year, so everyone can get on before the price goes.

[darlojim]

I'm already working on it Somer. There's a good shortlist forming, and I'm working away in the background trying to establish running plans.

Hopefully we can do it live again this year, so everyone can get on before the price goes.

I presume I speak for a lot of people but your input on here greatly missed Paul Spectre

[Magpie]

Ah great Paul, I’ll look forward to the bookies sweating.