Doing A Naiad 2022

[AaronLad]

Makes you think Pipe is planning on running Gericault Roque and Remastered in the Ultima.

Pipe also has brinkley owned by brocade racing, he's entered in 3m novice handicap at Exeter on Friday, which would free remastered up for pertemps?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Hoping somebody can explain why not having the RPR stat is a definite impediment to winning the Ultima?

Surely all the stat is showing is that a horse is better over the Ultima trip. Can completely understand why that is an important piece of criteria and if GW doesn’t obtain it then it should put a cap on just how much he will shorten, but if this is a master plan and the trainer is confident this horse will improve significantly over further then having not proved it on the track until now is not something I would be overly concerned with personally. A definite good to have, but don’t see it as a significant barrier.

[Quevega]

Hoping somebody can explain why not having the RPR stat is a definite impediment to winning the Ultima?

Surely all the stat is showing is that a horse is better over the Ultima trip. Can completely understand why that is an important piece of criteria and if GW doesn’t obtain it then it should put a cap on just how much he will shorten, but if this is a master plan and the trainer is confident this horse will improve significantly over further then having not proved it on the track until now is not something I would be overly concerned with personally. A definite good to have, but don’t see it as a significant barrier.

I agree, especially in this context, with this horse and the trainers previous success.
Would Coo star sivola still have won, off the same mark (without the exeter run) I'd say probably.
However, the stat does point to needing experience and being a proven stayer.
And it's one of the better trends still going.

[Stormez]

doctorwu will be here to educate you shortly I’m sure!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I agree, especially in this context, with this horse and the trainers previous success.
Would Coo star sivola still have won, off the same mark (without the exeter run) I'd say probably.
However, the stat does point to needing experience and being a proven stayer.
And it's one of the better trends still going.

Cool, we’re on the same page as agree with all that. Obvs need a few things to happen first but if the horse runs on Friday and gets in the Ultima you’d basically be looking at trainer confidence over proven track experience regards getting the trip. Most would agree we’d prefer to see the evidence with our own eyes but trainer confidence (as you say particularly this trainer) would be an adequate enough replacement for me

[Mr X]

Entered in a 2.5 handicap chase at Warwick on Friday with Harry Cobden jocked up

Harry Cobden no longer jocked up. What's that all about then?

[Saxon Warrior]

Hoping somebody can explain why not having the RPR stat is a definite impediment to winning the Ultima?

Surely all the stat is showing is that a horse is better over the Ultima trip. Can completely understand why that is an important piece of criteria and if GW doesn’t obtain it then it should put a cap on just how much he will shorten, but if this is a master plan and the trainer is confident this horse will improve significantly over further then having not proved it on the track until now is not something I would be overly concerned with personally. A definite good to have, but don’t see it as a significant barrier.

Nearly every Derby and Oaks winner doesn’t win over 1M4F until Epsom.

And nothing wins over the Grand National trip, or anywhere that close to it, until Aintree.

[Leman14]

If a horse has run over 3m, but has a higher RPR over shorter… the stat makes perfect sense.

But if a horse hasn’t ever run over 3m, then the stat doesn’t bother be so much.

[Saxon Warrior]

If a horse has run over 3m, but has a higher RPR over shorter… the stat makes perfect sense.

But if a horse hasn’t ever run over 3m, then the stat doesn’t bother be so much.

Agreed……

[Milbear0]

Agreed……

Interesting that the stat exists really, as you’d expect a change in circumstances (headgear, trip, running style, owners money…) to often illicit the improvement required to improve on a handicap mark. The Ultima has always been slightly different in that regard and tends to reward proven horses over course and distance. Not sure why?

[RoadToCheltenham]

Galahad Quest - 1 of 18 entered in the Coral Trophy on Saturday.

[Kevloaf]

Galahad Quest - 1 of 18 entered in the Coral Trophy on Saturday.

Spectre - the people need an update.

Are we happy. Are we sad. What do we want.

[Mr X]

Spectre - the people need an update.

Are we happy. Are we sad. What do we want.

Speculation while we wait on the main man. The ground at Kempton today was good to soft, good in places with a couple of heavy showers over the next few days. Warwick ground Heavy and showers to come. Chance of a bigger money pot at Kempton without the bottomless ground. Do we go in now again, later or not at all????

[Spectre]

If a horse has run over 3m, but has a higher RPR over shorter… the stat makes perfect sense.

But if a horse hasn’t ever run over 3m, then the stat doesn’t bother be so much.

Leman puts to bed Doctor Wu's RPR stat concern perfectly in his response above. In every other respect the post was completely wrong. Not a criticism, because when relying on memory I've got my facts wrong occasionally.

Anyway, back to the business in hand. As we all know Galahad Quest wins the 2022 Ultima.

So it's simple, just trust in the trainer. As we've seen previously he knows how to get one there well handicapped enough to win an Ultima. And moreover he's running a plan on Galahad Quest that he's successfully run before.

Given some of the concerns expressed, I'd suggest the Warwick entry should be a clear indication of the timing they're working to, which is identical to Coo Star Sivola's Exeter prep. Kempton is only a day later, so it still fits the programme. Also remember Kempton was an early closing race, so they had to make the entry almost three weeks ago, whereas Warwick is a five day closer. Given he's already guaranteed a run at Kempton, the Warwick entry is fairly easy to read. I think they'll use that unless it's either heavy, or they think the Kempton race is likely to cut up.

I actually don't mind which way he goes, but he either needs to win at Warwick or place at Kempton. Ideally adding 3+ lbs to his mark. Warwick would fit the brief perfectly, but the Kempton race is clearly tempting connections. My preference is that they aren't swayed from Plan A, given it's been in place for a long time. Mostly because of the risk of him having a harder race. I do think for connections to take in Warwick though we'll need some dry weather this week. I repeat though, they need to go up in the handicap so need to run in one or the other to be sure of getting a race, so as I said I'm not overly concerned which way they go.

As with any of these things there is never an outright guarantee because there are so many variables, but I'm comfortable the plan is on track and 100 or more Fat Jockeys are taking over the parade ring screen on the Tuesday of the Festival.

[Saxon Warrior]

Big week for the Naiad Spectre

Tuesday - Ultima entries
Wednesday - Warwick Final Decs
Thursday - Kempton Final Decs
Friday - Warwick Race
Saturday - Kempton Race