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Each year I try to find the UK handicap horse that goes under the radar with all the Irish hype, that fits the right set of trends and statistics (I keep my own). In the past I've had some fairly substantial wins by chipping away at the prices in this way. Fortunately over the last few years the plunge horse has hit more than missed. Admittedly placing more than winning, but the wins have been substantial, and the bet has been nicely profitable, and on a rolling basis it is substantially ahead. There have been reversals and the odd one doesn’t make it the Festival so there is a health warning too. There are no certs in this game. NRNB does help with, but I wouldn't be encouraging anyone to bet with sums they can't afford.
I have to aftertime to tell the story of how all this came about (which can be corroborated by at least a couple of members on here), and say that the first big win I had doing this was on Naiad du Misselot in the Coral Cup a few years ago. He returned a whopping 2700 points. He’s not only the first horse that set me on the path (hence the name of the thread), he still remains the biggest winner. There have been other very nice winners too, and also several horses that have placed and made between 100 and 400 point returns, but I've never managed to beat 'Naiad'.
So why am I saying this? Whilst it always feels good to remember the big winners, I'm not saying it to aftertime, I'm saying it to make what I think is a relevant point to consider in terms of Festival betting strategy. Think of it this way. Most of us have bets in all 28 races, or at least close to, and we try to spread our risk to keep our interest. We also like to do life-changer multiples that can require several big price horses to hit in the right combinations, when surely it's easier to just find one. How often do the big price multiples happen? How many stories are there each year on here of multiples bringing 20k plus wins? Not many, but they do hit. There were stories of two in total from every punter in the country last season. And one of those was our very own Faugheen Machine. But the percentage of wins overall is very very small, and don’t forget there are some seriously knowledgeable people here and elsewhere attempting to pull off those big wins.
So surely if you're going to pull off a big one there is a significantly better chance of doing so by picking out a single horse and focusing on it at the right price? And doing it now eliminates 46 weeks of antepost risk and can make a big difference to your overall result? More specifically it's easier to have a single horse that can really make your Festival, rather than 10's or 100's. Think of it this way, we're all very good at finding and playing the value in the antepost markets, and applying that principle to the handicaps at bigger prices, and before the markets form and mature, must be an opportunity worth exploring with this method.
Last year was the first year I introduced ‘The Naiad’ to Fat Jockey, and I know a lot of people joined in a forum plunge with Happygolucky who was the horse selected. We backed him down from 33/1 to 100/30 favourite on the day, and we were all seriously unlucky with him hitting the crossbar in second place. But nevertheless the place money was substantial because of the big prices we had, and from my own perspective I continued to back him until he hit 7/1. Anyway he was a very significant and profitable player in our books despite finishing second. Perhaps if he’d jumped like he did when winning at the Aintree Grand National meeting we could have landed the really big money, but it wasn’t to be.
I have to say this year feels a bit different and has created a real dilemma for me. I would usually wait for another couple of weeks to announce ‘The Naiad’ when the entries are out, but the markets have been very quick to react to money, results, tipsters, tweets, and even Fat Jockey, and as such there is a strong possibility that the price on this season’s ‘Naiad’ will go. So now I’ve got my opening position on it feels like I need to get on with it, and therefore it’s time to invite you to join in if you want to. Obviously there are no cast iron guarantees with the result, but as always there is some science behind the selection, and we will definitely be on at the right price, as I expect the chosen horse to go off at single figures rather than the large price I’ll be advising it at.
More info for Members about how it will be announced here.................
https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...022#post351656
For non-members the 'Naiad' selection will be posted here after Members have already been alerted on Tuesday evening. The initial price will most likely have gone, but given the SP will be single figures I'd still hope to be able to post a very good value bet late on Tuesday evening.
I have to aftertime to tell the story of how all this came about (which can be corroborated by at least a couple of members on here), and say that the first big win I had doing this was on Naiad du Misselot in the Coral Cup a few years ago. He returned a whopping 2700 points. He’s not only the first horse that set me on the path (hence the name of the thread), he still remains the biggest winner. There have been other very nice winners too, and also several horses that have placed and made between 100 and 400 point returns, but I've never managed to beat 'Naiad'.
So why am I saying this? Whilst it always feels good to remember the big winners, I'm not saying it to aftertime, I'm saying it to make what I think is a relevant point to consider in terms of Festival betting strategy. Think of it this way. Most of us have bets in all 28 races, or at least close to, and we try to spread our risk to keep our interest. We also like to do life-changer multiples that can require several big price horses to hit in the right combinations, when surely it's easier to just find one. How often do the big price multiples happen? How many stories are there each year on here of multiples bringing 20k plus wins? Not many, but they do hit. There were stories of two in total from every punter in the country last season. And one of those was our very own Faugheen Machine. But the percentage of wins overall is very very small, and don’t forget there are some seriously knowledgeable people here and elsewhere attempting to pull off those big wins.
So surely if you're going to pull off a big one there is a significantly better chance of doing so by picking out a single horse and focusing on it at the right price? And doing it now eliminates 46 weeks of antepost risk and can make a big difference to your overall result? More specifically it's easier to have a single horse that can really make your Festival, rather than 10's or 100's. Think of it this way, we're all very good at finding and playing the value in the antepost markets, and applying that principle to the handicaps at bigger prices, and before the markets form and mature, must be an opportunity worth exploring with this method.
Last year was the first year I introduced ‘The Naiad’ to Fat Jockey, and I know a lot of people joined in a forum plunge with Happygolucky who was the horse selected. We backed him down from 33/1 to 100/30 favourite on the day, and we were all seriously unlucky with him hitting the crossbar in second place. But nevertheless the place money was substantial because of the big prices we had, and from my own perspective I continued to back him until he hit 7/1. Anyway he was a very significant and profitable player in our books despite finishing second. Perhaps if he’d jumped like he did when winning at the Aintree Grand National meeting we could have landed the really big money, but it wasn’t to be.
I have to say this year feels a bit different and has created a real dilemma for me. I would usually wait for another couple of weeks to announce ‘The Naiad’ when the entries are out, but the markets have been very quick to react to money, results, tipsters, tweets, and even Fat Jockey, and as such there is a strong possibility that the price on this season’s ‘Naiad’ will go. So now I’ve got my opening position on it feels like I need to get on with it, and therefore it’s time to invite you to join in if you want to. Obviously there are no cast iron guarantees with the result, but as always there is some science behind the selection, and we will definitely be on at the right price, as I expect the chosen horse to go off at single figures rather than the large price I’ll be advising it at.
More info for Members about how it will be announced here.................
https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...022#post351656
For non-members the 'Naiad' selection will be posted here after Members have already been alerted on Tuesday evening. The initial price will most likely have gone, but given the SP will be single figures I'd still hope to be able to post a very good value bet late on Tuesday evening.
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