Doing A Naiad 2022

[Bollinger]

Each year I try to find the UK handicap horse that goes under the radar with all the Irish hype, that fits the right set of trends and statistics (I keep my own). In the past I've had some fairly substantial wins by chipping away at the prices in this way. Fortunately over the last few years the plunge horse has hit more than missed. Admittedly placing more than winning, but the wins have been substantial, and the bet has been nicely profitable, and on a rolling basis it is substantially ahead. There have been reversals and the odd one doesn’t make it the Festival so there is a health warning too. There are no certs in this game. NRNB does help with, but I wouldn't be encouraging anyone to bet with sums they can't afford.

I have to aftertime to tell the story of how all this came about (which can be corroborated by at least a couple of members on here), and say that the first big win I had doing this was on Naiad du Misselot in the Coral Cup a few years ago. He returned a whopping 2700 points. He’s not only the first horse that set me on the path (hence the name of the thread), he still remains the biggest winner. There have been other very nice winners too, and also several horses that have placed and made between 100 and 400 point returns, but I've never managed to beat 'Naiad'.

So why am I saying this? Whilst it always feels good to remember the big winners, I'm not saying it to aftertime, I'm saying it to make what I think is a relevant point to consider in terms of Festival betting strategy. Think of it this way. Most of us have bets in all 28 races, or at least close to, and we try to spread our risk to keep our interest. We also like to do life-changer multiples that can require several big price horses to hit in the right combinations, when surely it's easier to just find one. How often do the big price multiples happen? How many stories are there each year on here of multiples bringing 20k plus wins? Not many, but they do hit. There were stories of two in total from every punter in the country last season. And one of those was our very own Faugheen Machine. But the percentage of wins overall is very very small, and don’t forget there are some seriously knowledgeable people here and elsewhere attempting to pull off those big wins.

So surely if you're going to pull off a big one there is a significantly better chance of doing so by picking out a single horse and focusing on it at the right price? And doing it now eliminates 46 weeks of antepost risk and can make a big difference to your overall result? More specifically it's easier to have a single horse that can really make your Festival, rather than 10's or 100's. Think of it this way, we're all very good at finding and playing the value in the antepost markets, and applying that principle to the handicaps at bigger prices, and before the markets form and mature, must be an opportunity worth exploring with this method.

Last year was the first year I introduced ‘The Naiad’ to Fat Jockey, and I know a lot of people joined in a forum plunge with Happygolucky who was the horse selected. We backed him down from 33/1 to 100/30 favourite on the day, and we were all seriously unlucky with him hitting the crossbar in second place. But nevertheless the place money was substantial because of the big prices we had, and from my own perspective I continued to back him until he hit 7/1. Anyway he was a very significant and profitable player in our books despite finishing second. Perhaps if he’d jumped like he did when winning at the Aintree Grand National meeting we could have landed the really big money, but it wasn’t to be.

I have to say this year feels a bit different and has created a real dilemma for me. I would usually wait for another couple of weeks to announce ‘The Naiad’ when the entries are out, but the markets have been very quick to react to money, results, tipsters, tweets, and even Fat Jockey, and as such there is a strong possibility that the price on this season’s ‘Naiad’ will go. So now I’ve got my opening position on it feels like I need to get on with it, and therefore it’s time to invite you to join in if you want to. Obviously there are no cast iron guarantees with the result, but as always there is some science behind the selection, and we will definitely be on at the right price, as I expect the chosen horse to go off at single figures rather than the large price I’ll be advising it at.

More info for Members about how it will be announced here.................

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...022#post351656

For non-members the 'Naiad' selection will be posted here after Members have already been alerted on Tuesday evening. The initial price will most likely have gone, but given the SP will be single figures I'd still hope to be able to post a very good value bet late on Tuesday evening.

Absolutely fantastic introduction here, and very, very sound & analytical measure of both the race and your selection.

I have indeed decided to join the many Fat Jockey’s on here with regards to your selection, though have actually punted more money on Galahad Quest to be placed - 5/2 which attracted me just as much.

One trend that I did spot though - horses here that haven’t won over 2m 5f - 0/20.

I was wondering as a trend if this is something you’d spotted??

But trends and records are there to be broken, so let’s hope your thorough judgment reaps its awards in just a few weeks time!

[Spectre]

Hi Bollinger

Yes trends are big part of my consideration. I believe that trend may be met before the Festival though, and in the process I expect him to put up his best RPR.

That's not guaranteed of course, and will depend on how he comes out of the race on Saturday.

If it doesn't happen though I'm satisfied with the intention. I have no doubt he will thrive, and improve significantly for a step up in trip and being ridden prominently. They have always seen him as a staying chaser, and have campaigned him so he is a very well handicapped staying chaser.

I'll add my rationale from the live podcast to the thread in a moment.

[Spectre]

My rationale for Galahad Quest being this seasons 'Naiad'

• He’s on the same Nick Williams route as Coo Star Sivola and Siruh Du Lac before they won the Ultima and the Plate respectively, which is a pretty impressive Festival winning strike rate. Nick Williams knows what type he needs to win the race, he just has to source it, and then execute the plan perfectly.
• There is a difference in the paths of the two horses though which is important.
• Galahad Quest has a profile that’s very similar to Coo Star Sivola’s, who was kept to two and a half to keep him unexposed over 3 miles.
• Whereas he kept Siruh Du Lac unexposed over 2.5 miles and his mark was perfect for the Plate.
• Galahad Quest has been trying over 2.5 miles all season, but ran prominently for the first time on Saturday to find out where they are with his mark. I suspect they were always leaning towards the Ultima, and Saturday will have confirmed it. Saturday’s race was what I was waiting for before I could do this.
• In terms of run style, he’s been almost always held up or run in midfield. The two times he hasn’t were Saturday, when he was 2^nd, and in a valuable novice chase last season when he won, beating Marown and Farinet. Form that has worked out very well.
• His novice hurdle win at Cheltenham was also when they rode him up with the pace
• So three times they’ve done ridden him up with the pace, and his record is 121.
• All of his races where he’s been held up or in midfield he’s picked up a bit of prizemoney but not really threatened.
• In other words the tactic is a plan to have a well handicapped horse for a target race. And it’s a long-term plan to have a well handicapper chaser. Preferably one that can win a Festival Chase. In this case The Ultima.
• He ran the perfect trial for us on Saturday, where he was in the van, and stayed on only beaten by an unexposed horse at the trip. The others couldn’t pass him because he had plenty left, but not the pace of a quicker well handicapped Plate type horse.
• The important point though is that the route selected for Galahad Quest suggests, that Nick Williams has the right horse, and the right mark, and he knows exactly how to manage that mark for the target race
• All of that has happened, and NW is on record in his juvenile hurdle season saying that he is a future staying chaser. He has clearly been campaigned with mark management in mind for a target 3 mile handicap chase, and given the path he's on I'm confident it's this race.
• Ideally I’d like him to take in a three mile handicap chase towards the end of the month, and I think they will.
• For 7 out of the last 10 Ultima’s his mark would have got him in. Including the last two years. But not in the previous 3, so I think Nick Williams will avoid the risk, and run him to get the extra few pounds he needs to be certain.
• If he doesn’t there’s a risk he doesn’t get in, which would be money back anyway
• But assuming he does run again I expect it will give the added advantage of hitting one of the stats I like to see hit, and that is he should hit his highest RPR prior to the Festival over the Ultima trip.
• If he doesn’t, at least he’s already achieved his highest RPR over both hurdles and fences at Cheltenham. And crucially he has plenty of Cheltenham experience.
• The key thing for me though is I’m confident he can hit an RPR in the low 150’s in the Ultima, and hopefully he’ll be sat on a handicap mark somewhere around 140. 139 or lower is the mark I’d ideally like, but I don’t want to be greedy, and think he can win up to 142-143.
• David Noonan who is a cert to ride has won on 7 from 31 rides for Nick Williams, with a further 11 places. 23% win and 58% win and place.
• He also has a 27% win and place record at Cheltenham over the last 5 years.
• There are a lot more reasons I can give to add to the case including breeding, which I won’t go into now, but I’d ask you to watch the Paddy Power Gold Cup again, where he finished 5^th only beaten 5 lengths, once again held up with far much to do. The thing to note is how much ground he had to make up to get as close as he did, to horses like Midnight Shadow and Protektorat. And once again he was staying on and running all the way through the line.
• You have to be a prominent runner on the Old Course over two and half and three miles, and only Galahad Quest and Protektorat who is 8/1 4^th favourite for the Gold Cup, came from the back. The ill fated Midnight Shadow has also gone on to show just how far ahead of his mark he was.
• So in summary I think Galahad Quest is an outstanding bet for the Ultima at his price, and I expect him to go off close to favourite when everyone catches up with just how well in he is for the race.

Of course with any of these things there are dangers:

• The first place I would look is the Hennessy, which gives me Cloudy Glen (too high), Cloth Cap (going elsewhere), Demachine (wind op would make him interesting, but not otherwise), and Remastered (proving to be exposed now and may go to the Kim Muir now he's 145, or even the Pertemps where he would be really interesting if he got in off 133).
• The other place is the novices, but very few have really convinced this season. However you can’t rule out something that’s still unexposed. And there’s one I like and rate a danger. Knowing the way I think, a couple of you have actually PM’d me about him, and that’s pat’s Fancy, who I think is good for a saver at 20/1 nrnb with Skybet. I think however he's likely to go to the NH Chase.
• There will be one or two more when we see the entries, but I doubt they will be as well in as I believe Galahad Quest will be over 3 miles. And there is nothing that I can see that will be able to match is Cheltenham experience.
• We also have to consider the Irish, but their record in this isn’t great, but I think Gordon Elliott may be sending something here. Even so I think Galahad Quest is likely to be as well in and battle hardened around HQ. Elliott may have something similarly well-handicapped, but Galahad Quest could run round now with his eyes shut.

And if any of Galahad Quest's owners ever read this, I apologise that you're not on your own horse at the bigger prices, but winning this will be more than enough compensation!

[Redbridge]

Paul (Mr Spectre) really convincing reasoning and I'm in, I joined the party a bit late because today was my first visit for a few days.

I sat by at last years party and regretted it as each week passed but I cheered just as loud as all those involved because we all love to see the enemy shell out.

Day one is my only visit this year so hopefully I can be a part of the noise.

[Joleg]

Fantastic reasoning, the journey over the next 6 weeks is worthy of a couple of points here

[Spectre]

For openness my position on Galahad Quest so far is:

40/1 4 points ew
33/1 10 points ew
33/1 20 points ew nrnb
25/1 15 points ew nrnb
25/1 5 points ew

I'll update here with further additions.

The last bet was with Coral who decided they wanted to restrict my bet. If the 25/1 holds (it's also available with Ladbroke), I'll perhaps try again tomorrow to get the full 10 points on I'd intended.

All of which gives a return of about 4k short of the original 'Naiad'.

I was joking with Kev and Jono the other day, that I don't want to beat the original Naiad di Misselot return, because I don't want to change the name of the bet. I do intend to take my return up to the same level though.

[Spectre]

Paul (Mr Spectre) really convincing reasoning and I'm in, I joined the party a bit late because today was my first visit for a few days.

I sat by at last years party and regretted it as each week passed but I cheered just as loud as all those involved because we all love to see the enemy shell out.

Day one is my only visit this year so hopefully I can be a part of the noise.

It would be great to get as many Fat Jockey to the same place in the racecourse to watch the race together Redbridge. I just don't know quite how practical it would be though.

Watching the big screen in the Parade Ring might be an option, perhaps over the far side by the weighing room might not be overly busy after they've gone out to the course.

That way, if he can do it for us, we'd get to see the hero of the day come back in.

[Kevloaf]

For openness my position on Galahad Quest so far is:

40/1 4 points ew
33/1 10 points ew
33/1 20 points ew nrnb
25/1 15 points ew nrnb
25/1 5 points ew

I'll update here with further additions.

The last bet was with Coral who decided they wanted to restrict my bet. If the 25/1 holds (it's also available with Ladbroke), I'll perhaps try again tomorrow to get the full 10 points on I'd intended.

All of which gives a return of about 4k short of the original 'Naiad'.

I was joking with Kev and Jono the other day, that I don't want to beat the original Naiad di Misselot return, because I don't want to change the name of the bet. I do intend to take my return up to the same level though.

It could be re-named "The Galahad Quest for another Naiad" though, which is brilliant.

[Redbridge]

It would be great to get as many Fat Jockey to the same place in the racecourse to watch the race together Redbridge. I just don't know quite how practical it would be though.

Watching the big screen in the Parade Ring might be an option, perhaps over the far side by the weighing room might not be overly busy after they've gone out to the course.

That way, if he can do it for us, we'd get to see the hero of the day come back in.

Paul I would be highly delighted to stand anywhere alongside fellow Fatf***krers sorry I meant jockeys

[KickOnMyCockers]

For openness my position on Galahad Quest so far is:

40/1 4 points ew
33/1 10 points ew
33/1 20 points ew nrnb
25/1 15 points ew nrnb
25/1 5 points ew

I'll update here with further additions.

The last bet was with Coral who decided they wanted to restrict my bet. If the 25/1 holds (it's also available with Ladbroke), I'll perhaps try again tomorrow to get the full 10 points on I'd intended.

All of which gives a return of about 4k short of the original 'Naiad'.

I was joking with Kev and Jono the other day, that I don't want to beat the original Naiad di Misselot return, because I don't want to change the name of the bet. I do intend to take my return up to the same level though.

In fairness 'Another Quest' has quite a good ring to it should you pull it off, pal

[Lobos]

Food for thought......

Nick Williams, trainer of runner-up Galahad Quest (6-1), said: “It was a good solid run and he keeps getting better, so we’re very happy with that. We’ll have a think about next plans and all roads don’t necessarily lead back here in March, the jockey (David Noonan) was actually saying a flat track may be better.
“He’s won at Haydock and run well at Wetherby so he doesn’t have to come back here – there are other nice races around and we’ll look at things like Aintree and Newbury perhaps.”

[Many Clouds]

Food for thought......

Nick Williams, trainer of runner-up Galahad Quest (6-1), said: “It was a good solid run and he keeps getting better, so we’re very happy with that. We’ll have a think about next plans and all roads don’t necessarily lead back here in March, the jockey (David Noonan) was actually saying a flat track may be better.
“He’s won at Haydock and run well at Wetherby so he doesn’t have to come back here – there are other nice races around and we’ll look at things like Aintree and Newbury perhaps.”

Ohh FFS. Is it me or does there seem to be bad news almost daily. The RWF quote from Gordy yesterday seems like the only positive thing for my antepost I've read in weeks.

[Eggs]

Food for thought......

Nick Williams, trainer of runner-up Galahad Quest (6-1), said: “It was a good solid run and he keeps getting better, so we’re very happy with that. We’ll have a think about next plans and all roads don’t necessarily lead back here in March, the jockey (David Noonan) was actually saying a flat track may be better.
“He’s won at Haydock and run well at Wetherby so he doesn’t have to come back here – there are other nice races around and we’ll look at things like Aintree and Newbury perhaps.”

….mentions Aintree and Newbury, suggesting they might not take up the Kempton handicap entry at the end of this month.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ohh FFS. Is it me or does there seem to be bad news almost daily. The RWF quote from Gordy yesterday seems like the only positive thing for my antepost I've read in weeks.

Always think it best not to get carried away, especially when still 5-6 weeks to go and another race to run in by the looks of it.

[Mighty]

Members might like to check the post I’ve just made on the Naiad thread in the members only section…