Doing A Naiad 2022

[AaronLad]

Travelled well but never found much, to me would definitely suggest spectre is right and a more predominant ride would suit better, I don't think he's good enough but that's me , fancy foundations is a real standout in the plate

[Rooster Booster]

Travelled well but never found much, to me would definitely suggest spectre is right and a more predominant ride would suit better, I don't think he's good enough but that's me , fancy foundations is a real standout in the plate

Yep I agree re Fancy Foundations. Got his experience in early, had been put away for the better ground. Seems to have gone under the radar somewhat.

[robith]

I'm controversial if you don't like it block me

Jaysis mate, it's an Internet horse racing forum, not one of Voltaire's saloons

[Craigy14]

AaronLad everyone is entitled to their own opinion, that’s what generates such healthy discussion on this forum.

But your ‘rant’ re Spectre and Galahad Quest is so far from what I believe this forum is about. Where were you when Spectre made the case for GQ? Excuse me if I’m wrong but I don’t recall you being so opposed to the case he made?

Your rant stinks of someone who backed GQ and lost some points backing him. Be a bigger man instead of accusing the guy of something I am pretty certain he had absolutely no intentions of doing. Was actually a bit gobsmacked reading your posts

[nortonscoin200]

Words like "sour" and "grapes" spring readily to mind.

This is a sport where ABSOLUTELY NO-ONE can get it right all the time or even most of the time.

But Spectre rocks - his racing knowledge is astounding and we should ALL cherish him.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Travelled well but never found much, to me would definitely suggest spectre is right and a more predominant ride would suit better, I don't think he's good enough but that's me , fancy foundations is a real standout in the plate

FF boosted to 28 with Sports book

[Liammet]

Words like "sour" and "grapes" spring readily to mind.

This is a sport where ABSOLUTELY NO-ONE can get it right all the time or even most of the time.

But Spectre rocks - his racing knowledge is astounding and we should ALL cherish him.

100 percent agree
I also think we should have an unlike box to tick for such posts

[Spectre]

I didn’t have the opportunity to watch the race until this morning, and I thought the tactics were wrong with Galahad Quest. Last time at Cheltenham showed how to ride him to best effect, so a switch back to hold up tactics was surprising. I never quite understand why you would go up in trip and then run your horse like a non-stayer. He effectively was left to make up too much ground in the last third of the race when they were pinging away at the front. Fwiw I think he’s fine at 3 miles and will win over a trip in time. A front running ride in the Plate may also see him place. The problem now is he’s unlikely to get a run, so will presumably be Aintree bound. To be honest I think connections have really messed up. You’d really want to be winning races with such a potentially well handicapped horse, and he’s once again been asked to it from the back and just picked up minor prize money. Hopefully they have the good sense to ride him prominently at Aintree and at least give themselves a chance.

I found the post about my masterplan quite amusing by the way, so I’m not offended. If I was that devious I’d be invading countries and be some kind of despot, and not posting about horses. I certainly have no need to benefit at the expense of others, as those who know me can attest to. And I certainly wouldn’t be doing Podcasts to make myself an easy target every time I walked on to a racecourse.

Right I’m off to figure out how I get out of invading the Warwickshire border with my wife today, who wants to go to a retail park…………

[Kevloaf]

Nobody uses my forum to manipulate the markets AaronLad

If they did, they'd get banned.


Now correct me if I'm wrong, essentially what you seem to be saying, is that 'somebody' has accused us of that, and instead of defending it, you've actually started to believe it?

If you believe it, I think you're personally accusing me of being in on it?

It's an interesting drum to bang.

[Spectre]

For those that don't watch the podcasts, I've been chipping away at Tea Clipper for some time now. There's only one 'Naiad' each season, and that went west because Nick Williams thought it was a far better idea to completely ruin Galahad's Quest's campaign. But Tea Clipper would be my nomination if we were to have a second go.

He's very well handicapped, and will need the step up in trip to 3 miles. Before anyone jumps on the stat that he hasn't produced his best RPR over 3 miles, I don't care. He's a Stowaway, and he will absolutely be at is best over that trip. It looks as though he's been held on to over the shorter trip to get a favourable mark. He has a mark of 145, but has already done a 153 RPR over a trip too short, and I think he can be a high 150's touching 160 horse, and if I'm right he will be very hard to beat.

He was 3rd in the Coral Cup last season on the old course, so we know he acts on it. By comparison, Floueur who is all the rage now, and will possibly go off favourite, was 3rd in the Pipe on the new course. I've rated the two races, and I have Tea Clipper marked up after being hampered at the last, and on my figure I had him 5lb ahead comparatively. He was just behind Craigneche giving him weight, and as I said hampered after the last flight too. Craigneche was one that many had high hopes for as a Brown Advisory horse this season including Nicky Henderson, which usually takes a 160 or greater performance if he was in that class, so if you liked him, you'd have to like Tea Clipper.

He likes to be prominent, which is vital in an Ultima, and he's guaranteed to get his required underfoot conditions, plus Tom Lacey's horses are absolutely flying at the moment and couldn't be in better form. But the icing on the cake is he had the wind op back in January, and they've reached for first time headgear too. Neither are coincidence, and both have been done so he has significant improvement to come in this race. Literally everything has come together to make him a perfect Ultima horse. I expect him to make a huge improvement tomorrow, and run a very big race. I think he'll win, but I can't have him out of the places, which is very important criteria for a 'Naiad'.

I've been chipping away from 33/1 down for about 10 days now, and had some significant bets yesterday with extra places. He's still available at 16/1 today and I've had a bit more, and I'll continue to back him in to single figures. I think he may be vying for favouritism tomorrow afternoon, and I'll continue to back him down to 7/1 which is where I'll stop. 7/1 is where I have his correct price on my tissue in the context of the race. Given his profile I think he will go off at single figures, and probably somewhere near my tissue price. Whether you join me is your call, as it's a fairly late play for people who already have bets down. But if you like him and have backed him already perhaps have a top up, or if you haven't backed him I'd perhaps recommend at least a saver at a value price.

For transparency I have 10 points on at 33/1, 3.75 on at 22/1, 57.5 points on at 20/1, and 15 points on at 16/1. So far returning 2352.75 points for the win, and 446.75 points for the place. The aim is to finish up with an approximate 2500 point win position and 500 point place position. If it comes off, the place alone will be my single biggest return on a horse this Festival.

There's a spot all the way round the back of the parade ring on the same side as the weighing room, at the presentation area end of the parade ring. It's a dead end as far as you can go. So for anyone down there, I'm going to watch the race by the big screen at the parade ring for anyone that wants to shout him home and help me celebrate. And it's perhaps a good opportunity to get a few Festival Fat Jockey's together.

I'm heading down there now, so this will likely be my last post until after it's all over, so the very best of luck everyone. Have a great Festival, and hopefully a profitable one too.

[Lbur4288]

Funnily enough I was thinking that the Surprise Package/Freedom to Dream bets were fast becoming a naiadesque bet for the forum.

[Many Clouds]

I'm on! Cmon the real Naiad, Tea Clipper all way.

[RufusFlynn]

Snaffled some of the 33's myself after declarations an noticed he's been well backed continuously since... didn't realise it was you.

Best of luck Spectre

[opatcho]

For those that don't watch the podcasts, I've been chipping away at Tea Clipper for some time now. There's only one 'Naiad' each season, and that went west because Nick Williams thought it was a far better idea to completely ruin Galahad's Quest's campaign. But Tea Clipper would be my nomination if we were to have a second go.

Great read....

My own notes (done before seeing your analysis and selection)

- good 3th in last year’s Coral Cup over hurdles after winning some decent prize money, remember watching him win the Silver Trophy and through how well the trainer prepared him for that race
- like how the trainer threw him into a bumper before the coral cup, knows how to prep one
- Rachael Blackmore rode him at aintree - at the height of her success, might be reading into it a bit too much... but something that caught my eye
- Jumped well at Cheptsow in listed race. Outpaced but stayed on well
- Next race, badly outpaced over mid-distance. Scrap. Was entered that weekend for the 3 miler but went for short distance
- Next up, Kauto Star novices at Kempton, tight/quick track on soft ground. Struggled with the pace or probably the going, tailed off. Do they run him here to just to qualify him and pick up some easy prize money?
- Has been pulled out of 2-3 races due to the going (soft). This fellow wants good ground
- Wind op and now wearing cheekpieces for the first time

[Tickety Boo]

Jumped aboard with you all, Corals have it 16s for 6 places. Good Luck Paul